Monday, 23 November 2009

Conservatives should be able to avoid asking for Clegg's help

In the wake of the Observer’s Ipsos-Mori poll, which suggested that the general election could result in a hung parliament, Nick Clegg has indicated that, in that eventuality, his party might be prepared to enter into an arrangement with the Conservatives. On ‘The Andrew Marr Show’ the Liberal Democrat leader set out a position which it is difficult not to interpret as encouragement to the Tories.

"Whichever party has the strongest mandate from the British people, it seems to me obvious in a democracy they have the first right to seek to try and govern, either on their own or with others.”


On Conservative Home Jonathan Isaby suggests that Clegg would find it impossible to sell coalition with the Tories to grass roots Liberal Democrat supporters.

However the modern Conservative party, with its emphasis on social justice, is relatively in tune with liberal sensibilities. Although, as Isaby observes, it is unlikely to accede to demands for proportional representation.

Ultimately, the Observer’s poll is not in line with the vast majority of surveys, which still indicate that the Tories are likely to form the next government with a clear majority. There might be fewer Conservative MPs than David Cameron would ideally like, but as long as he plots a centrist course, a hung parliament can be avoided.

3 comments:

Kevinho said...

IMHO Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems would be better off to forget about the possibility of a coalition after a hung parliament until it happens. They should concentrate on getting into government on their own terms instead, whether after this election, or as is more likely, in the future. Lib Dem voters want a change from the two main parties, not more of the same, or to become part of that same, as they did in Scotland with Labour.

fair_deal said...

I think everyone needs to calm down a little about this poll. Let's see were the averages our in a few weeks.

If the national polls do tighten it won't be much help to UCUNF's first run out (presuming they overcome their selection issues).

Seymour Major said...

The new Angus Reid Poll shows the Conservatives with a 17 point lead
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/

On the same website, it is also worth looking at the post which analysis is made of the IPSOS MORI Poll.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2351
Part of the reason for that small lead seems to be because IPSOS MORI does not politically weight their sample.

Finally, it is still a fact that in the marginal constituencies, the swing to the Conservatives is much higher than national trends - a fact not borne out by most of the opinion polls.