Three Thousand Versts of Loneliness

The UUP is not the only Northern Irish party whose selection process is turning fractious. Over at Slugger Drumlin’s Rock highlights the curious case of Dr Phillip Weir .  The DUP’s head of policy was deselected in Craigavon where he currently holds a council seat and subsequently failed to get the nod just down the road, in Banbridge. Obviously the key adviser to Peter Robinson is not easily discouraged.  He intends to try for selection for a third council seat, perhaps that will be the charm.  This time it’s in Lisburn, where Edwin Poots stands down at the next election, in order to concentrate on his Assembly duties. Meanwhile the News Letter reports that DUP Belfast city councillor, David Rodway, has also been deselected in favour of leading Orangeman, Tom Haire. It doesn’t look like Rodway will go quietly.  He claims that he may be suffering discrimination because of his agnostic beliefs.  The Cornishman now says that he’s in talks with UUP leader ...

Northern Ireland’s political parties face a triple electoral whammy next May, with local council and assembly polls taking place at the same time as the Alternative Vote referendum. I wonder what appetite hard-working activists and an apathetic general public will have for campaigns starting in the grey months of Winter and running into the early Spring? No doubt some of our representatives will be more up for the fight than others.  Still, it’s hard to envisage them inspiring a healthy turnout from an indifferent electorate. If the menu of political options is unchanged, or even decreases from previous polls, even the anoraks among us may be scrabbling around for a candidate worth backing. One interesting question for the run-up to May 5th  2011, how will the local parties advise their supporters to vote on AV? If self-interest is the guiding principle, and surely it will be, you would imagine the UUP, SDLP and Alliance will back it enthusiastically, while the DUP ...

In the frenzy of political activity over the past fortnight it has been rather overlooked. But today voters go to the polls in a council by-election in Craigavon. A ballot is required in the Lurgan ward after the TUV’s attempt to co-opt a replacement for its outgoing councillor, Mark Russell, was rejected by opponents. It is a four way contest which does not include the DUP. So voters will not have an opportunity to deliver a bloody nose to that party just yet. The SDLP and Sinn Féin are each fielding candidates, but the likelihood is that either Jo-Anne Dobson from the Ulster Unionists, or David Calvert, whom the TUV wished originally to co-opt, will take the seat. Despite inclement conditions, it seems that canvassing has been continuing apace in Lurgan. Daphne Timble reports a positive response to the UUP message from the doorsteps. Another by-election victory would boost morale in the run-up to the Westminster poll this spring. Incidentally, although I should illustrate th...

Four ministerial resignations, including the Home Secretary, a back bench plot to unseat the Prime Minister from his leadership of the Labour party, rumours that an impending cabinet reshuffle will precipitate bitter recriminations rather than freshen and revitalise Gordon Brown’s team, predictions that the party could be beaten into fourth place in local and European elections, being held today. A new and strident challenger has emerged to contest the title of ‘worst week’ in the history of the disintegrating Labour government. There is a strong feeling that, for Brown at least, next week has the potential to be even worse. Even loyal Brownites, who have found that they are not immune from their leader’s briefing operation, are reportedly starting to feel restive. There is speculation that Alistair Darling will refuse to be shuffled from the Treasury into another cabinet post, for instance. It is becoming increasingly clear that the ‘big clunking fist’ which comprises Brown’s fac...

First count Sinn Féin (Coyle) 1815 SDLP (Flanaghan) 739 DUP (Foster) 1925 UUP (Johnston) 1436 Alliance (Kamble) 231 Independent Republican (McHugh) 158 Quota 3153 SF have asked for a recount. Assuming the results are upheld, Alliance, SDLP and Independent Republican will drop out for the second count. Second Count UUP 1640 DUP 1994 SF 2327 Arlene Foster is likely to win after UUP transfers are distributed. Final count DUP 3165 SF 2383 Nothing more to see here. I will not be a hypocrite and pore over results. There is little surprising or particularly instructive here.

Without wishing either to stretch a metaphor or put literal minded readers off dinner, Northern Ireland’s politics comprise a cramped, crowded, sweaty, incestuous hothouse. This week the hothouse is being strapped to the back of a media lorry and transported down the road to Enniskillen . The council by election which is to take place there will no doubt by minutely dissected and its significance projected endlessly (and speculatively) unto a bigger stage by those parties which feel they have done well. That is the nature of the, frankly vaguely ridiculous, hothouse. The truth is that this by election will be influenced by a series of peculiarities, local or otherwise, and the significance accorded to its result should not be overstated. The News Letter’s Stephen Dempster is correct when he states that this is not Dromore and that extrapolating the state of unionism from the election is not a possibility. This election is of unfortunate provenance, it features a pressurised battl...

Next month’s Fermanagh by election has already been highlighted on Three Thousand Versts alongside the attendant issue of ‘double jobbing’ which Arlene Foster’s candidature invokes. Foster previously resigned her council seat in order to concentrate on her roles as an MLA and a minister. A year later and she is back, contesting a by election in which her main rivals will be Sinn Féin’s Debbie Coyle and UUP candidate Basil Johnston. In addition, Karen McHugh represents the torrid world of dissident republicanism, although a positive aspect is that she may pose a threat to Sinn Féin’s vote. Rosemary Flanagan stands for the SDLP and Alliance’s Dr Kumar Kamble completes the field. Arlene Foster has made a rather belated and tactical appeal to her supporters to transfer their votes to the UUP candidate. Clearly she does not want the DUP to stand accused of losing a seat to Sinn Féin by fostering (pun intended) unionist infighting. In such a situation, given the strength of republic...

Arlene Foster was elected as a councillor for Enniskillen to Fermanagh District Council in 2005. Subsequently she resigned the local government seat in order to concentrate on her role as MLA and minister in the Northern Ireland Executive. Following the death of Councillor Joe Dodds of the DUP, it transpires that Foster will fight the resultant by-election with the intention of retaining the seat and once again taking up office as a local councillor. The DUP’s decision betrays desperation and disregard for both the electorate and the importance of local government. The post of Economy Minister should be sufficient to occupy any politician on a full-time basis. Given that Foster has ambitions to become a Westminster MP, there is a possibility that she may be spread still more thinly in two years time. What level of attention would she be able to afford her council constituents and the business of the council given her current duties, never mind if she wins a subsequent election a...

The by election for Tyrone Howe’s Dromore seat on Banbridge Council appears to have thrown up an interesting result . The Ulster Unionist Party candidate Carol Black has retained the seat for her party, despite being widely considered as a rank outsider (the ward is a multi-member constituency). Significantly it was transfers from Jim Allister’s new unionist party, the TUV which enabled the UUP to retain the seat. It appears that voters attracted by the TUV may prefer to transfer to a party which they consider too liberal, but at least honest and open about it, rather than to the hypocrisy of the DUP. The Dromore by-election has attracted a disproportionate amount of interest simply because it is the first electoral outing for the new unionist party. The poll will be analysed to discern what effect, if any, the realignment of hard-line unionists to Allister’s group will have on the more mainstream unionist parties. A single local by-election is a poor barometer of how the unionis...