Three Thousand Versts of Loneliness

Was the Oldham East by-election result a particularly bad one for the Lib Dems?  Labour held the seat  comfortably , increasing its majority from a perilously slender 103 to a relatively healthy 3,558. On one hand Labour’s vote actually increased after the ignominy of its candidate, Phil Woolas, being turfed out of Parliament and suspended from the party. On the other hand, the Liberal Democrat vote fell by just under 3,000 against the backdrop of a turnout which had collapsed from 61.2% in May to 48% this time round.  In fact the Lib Dem share of the vote is actually very slightly up.  It is the Conservative share which has taken a serious hit. Given the controversy which attended Nick Clegg’s elevation to deputy prime minister, it could be argued that his party's total isn't too bad.  After all, the government traditionally gets a tough time at by-elections.  The Lib Dems were last night trotting out the statistic that a governing party has not gai...

In May Britain’s political sands shifted dramatically and members of the three main parties can be forgiven for appearing a trifle unsteady as they attempt to navigate an unfamiliar landscape.  Conference season provides a platform for their anxieties and gives leaders, who have shaped this new environment, a chance to help their followers find their feet. Labour is engaged in a high profile contest to crown a leader, of course, and looks set to draw all the wrong lessons from its election defeat.  Next weekend the result will be announced and the party’s membership will be asked to galvanise around its chosen Miliband in a very public coronation. The Conservatives convene in early October and the atmosphere is likely to be less than celebratory, despite the party's return from a long spell in the political wilderness.  A growing band of Tories resent the dependence of their government on coalition partners and Lord Ashcroft owns the most high profile finger of blame...

So good sense has prevailed and David Cameron, finally, becomes Prime Minister . It has been a long wait to get Gordon Brown out of Downing Street. Yesterday Fraser Nelson caustically observed that special forces would be required to dislodge Brown from Number 10. That hasn't quite been necessary, Nick Clegg put the outgoing PM out of his misery. O'Neill has outlined the reasons that the putative 'traffic light' coalition, or 'coalition of losers', would have spelled disaster for the United Kingdom. The Conservatives certainly realised this, a growing chorus of voices in the Labour party, to be fair to them, pointed out the same thing and the Liberal Democrats have apparently come to the same opinion. Nick Clegg's party is in an extraordinary position. It has acquired political responsibility and leverage far beyond its mandate. But the Lib Dems moment in the sun could yet prove their undoing. Had the party gone into power with Labour and a coterie of...

With less than one week to go, David Cameron has given his party much needed momentum by winning the last leaders’ election debate. Most of the major pollsters agree that the Conservative leader was the clear victor, while one, Populous, put Cameron level pegging with Nick Clegg. Gordon Brown, fresh from his travails in Rochdale, trailed the two younger men in every poll. Seymour Major is sceptical , but Conservative supporters will be closely scrutinising tonight’s newscasts, and the Sunday papers, to discern whether Cameron will get a similar bounce when the polling companies survey voting intention. Although their accuracy is questionable, it would settle Tory nerves considerably if the party’s poll figures began to edge out of the mid thirties, towards forty per cent. And I believe that, as election day draws closer, support for the Liberal Democrats will soften, to the Conservatives’ advantage. In Northern Ireland we are accustomed to the distortion of opinion polls by a so-c...

Gordon Brown’s plan to introduce Alternative Vote is a cynical exercise. It is also foolhardy and it is likely to alter profoundly Britain’s constitutional landscape, despite its conception as a half-hearted sop to a public disillusioned with politics. There are three reasons why the prime minister is considering this type of electoral reform and none of them make it a good idea. First, he wishes to be seen to be doing something to address a so-called ’crisis of legitimacy’ which has afflicted politics since the expenses scandal. There is a flourishing perception that MPs are not sufficiently accountable to the people they represent and that that is the source of corruption at Westminster. Alternative Vote gives the appearance of accountability. After all, we get to make more than one mark on the ballot paper. Second, whatever the outcome of the forthcoming general election, Labour is destined for a period in opposition. First past the post is believed to work to the advantage ...

In the wake of the Observer’s Ipsos-Mori poll , which suggested that the general election could result in a hung parliament, Nick Clegg has indicated that, in that eventuality, his party might be prepared to enter into an arrangement with the Conservatives. On ‘The Andrew Marr Show’ the Liberal Democrat leader set out a position which it is difficult not to interpret as encouragement to the Tories. "Whichever party has the strongest mandate from the British people, it seems to me obvious in a democracy they have the first right to seek to try and govern, either on their own or with others.” On Conservative Home Jonathan Isaby suggests that Clegg would find it impossible to sell coalition with the Tories to grass roots Liberal Democrat supporters. However the modern Conservative party, with its emphasis on social justice, is relatively in tune with liberal sensibilities. Although, as Isaby observes, it is unlikely to accede to demands for proportional representation. Ultimate...

ConHome carries results from the latest ICM Sunday Telegraph poll. Bizarrely both Labour and the Conservatives are down four points and the Liberal Democrats have climbed by six. Have either Nick Clegg or his party upped their performance in some way which I have not been able to discern or is this poll a rogue? Any suggestions to unravel this conundrum gratefully received.