Three Thousand Versts of Loneliness

It’s become common to assert that Brexit has changed the contours of British politics forever. That remains to be seen. After the UK leaves the EU, older loyalties and divisions may re-emerge, as allegiances and rivalries that developed since the referendum become irrelevant. That hasn’t prevented some fairly animated discussion about the potential for new parties to reflect a ‘realignment’ of politics after Brexit. Since Jeremy Corbyn’s hard-left faction took charge of the Labour, there have been suggestions that its pragmatic ‘Blairite’ wing would be happier outside the party. They may or may not have enough in common with disgruntled Conservative ‘remainers’ to share a common political home. This fabled ‘centrist’ group is joined by a ‘Radicals’ party, imagined by FT journalist, Jeremy Cliffe . He went to the trouble of drawing up a short manifesto, that combines pro-EU, pro-migrant social policies, with proposals for aggressive decentralisation and a free-market economy, ...

This article appeared first in the News Letter's General election supplement (1 June 2017). Since devolution, and particularly after the restoration of the Assembly in 2007, the centre of gravity in Northern Ireland politics moved steadily away from Westminster back to Stormont.  The tendency was compounded after pressure to stop ‘double jobbing’ eventually put an end to dual mandates, so political heavyweights and party leaders could no longer juggle their responsibilities in both legislatures.   For a number of years, the most high profile political personalities in the media have operated from Stormont, while some MPs became relatively anonymous.  There were even occasional suggestions that difficult characters or party rivals were sent to the House of Commons to keep them out of mischief.   With this General Election, there is a very good chance that the political balance will shift back toward Westminster.  Many of the most urgent challenges No...

This article appeared first in the News Letter . When should we admit that devolution in Northern Ireland has so far been a dismal failure?    Even when the power-sharing Executive operated, it rarely legislated and refused to tackle the most pressing problems afflicting our society and economy.   Twenty years after the IRA renewed its ceasefire, is it still enough that bombs don’t explode regularly on our streets?   Maybe the latest political crisis should be the point at which we finally insist upon a system of government that gets things done. The Good Friday Agreement launched a process intended to build a peaceful and successful Northern Ireland.  The institutions it established were supposed to develop into a functioning local government, capable of taking decisions about health, education, the budget and other aspects of policy that comprise ‘normal politics’. Perhaps even more importantly, power-sharing was supposed to create a ‘share...

In part 2 of his post, guest blogger Dr Phil Larkin reflects upon the prospects of Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party and he predicts that the SNP has reached the peak of its powers. THE 2015 ELECTION ONE YEAR ON: REFLECTIONS AND PREDICTIONS (Part 2) Corbyn and the Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn was made Labour Party leader in September 2015, after being nominated for the ballot by a number of Labour MPs, some of whom, like Sadiq Khan and Margaret Beckett, are kicking themselves for being so foolish. Corbyn was elected leader by over 60 per cent of the Labour Party membership, despite the reality that his views run counter to the vast majority of the Parliamentary Party on most key issues. During Ed Miliband’s time the rules on Party leadership were altered to give the membership a bigger say in the decision, and it was possible to join up online prior to the election for a fee of £3. I suspect that many who voted for him were younger members of the population with little or ...

The following is part 1 of a 2 part guest post by regular guest blogger Dr Phil Larkin . In part 1, Phil looks at the Conservative Party, its leader and the likely effects of an EU Referendum.  Tomorrow, part 2 will reflect on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership of the Labour Party and the prospects of Nicola Sturgeon's SNP, in Scotland.   THE 2015 ELECTION ONE YEAR ON: REFLECTIONS AND PREDICTIONS Introduction It is hard to believe that it is almost a year on since the General Election of May 2015. The results themselves were surprising in a number of ways, and there have been unforeseen developments on the UK political stage. The purpose of this article is to make a number of reflections on the events of this past year, and make some predictions about upcoming events on the political horizon. Cameron, the Tories, and the EU Referendum The Conservatives’ victory in last year’s election with a small but workable overall majority of 12 was perhaps the biggest surprise...

If you're one of the chosen few pouring over details of the boundary commission's proposed changes to the electoral map in Northern Ireland,  this map will prove useful.  We're set to lose 2 out of our current 18 Westminster constituencies and these are the commission's plans to change the boundaries. The possible electoral ramifications will keep pundits busy over the coming weeks and months, but a few weird and wonderful geographical / local identity issues will also keep debate boiling. For instance it's intriguing that the new mid-Antrim constituency will snake out from the coast to encompass Ballymena, as well the East Antrim locale of Larne and Carrickfergus.  Indeed Ballymena town will be separated from outlying villages like Cullybackey and Broughshane, which are part of Ballymena council and undoutbedly part of the same area. No doubt there will be similar issues elsewhere.  Intriguing.  

It appears that the AV campaign is losing momentum, but there's still a danger that apathy could foist a voting system upon us for which there is precious little popular enthusiasm.   In today's News Letter I argue the case against AV and (I'd imagine) show up my woeful ignorance of popular TV talent shows! UNLIKE a majority of the population I don’t watch X Factor or Britain’s Got Talent. Though I’m led to believe the finals of these shows follow a time-honoured principle. In my opinion it’s rather a good one.  As I understand it, the viewers vote for their favourite act, all the votes are totalled and the performer who tops the poll is declared the winner. As simple as that. It’s a highly effective voting system: it gets the job done and, most importantly, it’s fair.  In this case, what works for light entertainment also works for politics. In the UK we use the First Past The Post (FPTP) system to decide Westminster elections. At the House of Commons each constituenc...

It feels like banging one's head against a brick wall.  No-one apparently cares.  I suppose in a region which returns five official abstentionist MPs, what's another unofficial abstentionist? Still, it's worth pointing out, just for the record (and for the eccentric few who actually do care about Northern Ireland's voice being heard at Westminster) that the member for North Down has now racked up her century. Drum roll please ..... the 'independently minded' Lady has participated in  0 votes out of 102 during this parliament.  Count 'em!  Even Alasdair McDonnell, a notoriously work-shy member has notched up 24 votes . An extraordinary record anyone would surely agree.  Even at the Spending Review announcement and the subsequent debate, which will surely affect even the prosperous denizens of the Gold Coast, Hermon was conspicuous by her absence. How long will this record continue before it's flagged up outside a handful of blogs?  Have the loc...

Another fortnight has elapsed and the MP for North Down has still not been sighted at Westminster.  Theyworkforyou still records no contribution from Sylvia Hermon since March of this year, during the last parliament. The House of Commons is due to rise for its summer recess on 27 July and will not be recalled until 6 September.  If Hermon fails to make a late appearance, she will have ignored entirely the new parliament's first session. During the election campaign she promised to make 'every vote count' as an independent.  So far more than thirty votes have taken place, with a new activist government she claims to oppose getting into the swing of its first term in office.  Clearly none of these divisions has concerned Hermon or the voters of North Down. It would be interesting to know whether she intends to start representing her constituents in September or continuing to act like quasi-nobility.

In today's Belfast Telegraph I look at coalition foreign policy and the internal tensions which William Hague must overcome to make sure that his realist philosophy is pursued. Not only must the coalition determine how its new philosophical approach might translate into practice, there are also fault-lines within the Government, and within the Conservative Party, which could ensure tensions over foreign policy, rather than quarrels about the economy, are the greatest threat to its survival. Perhaps the most conspicuous source of disagreement between the Conservatives and their new partners remains Europe. Liberal Democrats champion a central role for the UK within the EU. By contrast, the Tories' manifesto promised to repatriate powers from Brussels to London and Hague is on the eurosceptic wing. The minister has a delicate balancing act to perform: maintaining constructive relationships with key EU countries, fending off excess Lib Dem euro-enthusiasm and, simultaneously, r...