Three Thousand Versts of Loneliness

The chancellor of the exchequer is still in the House of Commons defending his budget statement.  One of the eye catching measures announced by George Osborne this afternoon is an additional 1% cut in corporation tax , aimed at stimulating growth, on top of the 1% which was already planned.  In order to signal that Britain is ’open for business’ the rate will also fall in the succeeding three years, reaching 23% in 2014. Appropriately enough, just before the budget debate, Owen Paterson announced that the consultation paper on devolving corporation tax raising powers to Northern Ireland will be published tomorrow.  It’s argued that we are peculiarly disadvantaged when it comes to attracting international investment, because our near neighbours in the Irish Republic enjoy a CT rate of just 12.5%. The Secretary of State has long championed the idea that the Stormont Assembly should be allowed to cut taxes in order to make Northern Ireland a more competitive destination...

The Belfast Telegraph link is now available and in today's paper I focus on the spending review and, in particular, local reaction to cuts. the notion that poor, benighted Northern Ireland is to be mercilessly squeezed by the perfidious Tories, was not unduly dented by the fact that we actually got off rather lightly, in comparison with the rest of the UK.  It made little difference that we can expect only a 6.9% cut to our block grant, while the average government department will see its spending constricted by 19%.  Not even a cool £200 million, stumped up by the Treasury to reimburse investors in the ill-fated Presbyterian Mutual Society, could draw poison from local attacks on the Chancellor and his government. Foremost among the critics are Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness, who allege that Osborne has broken a promise to deliver £18 billion of infrastructure improvements to Northern Ireland.  That figure was thrashed out behind closed doors with Gordon Brown, i...

The Budget Debate is continuing with predictable rancour.  Punch and Judy politics writ large.  Harriot Harman, acting Labour leader, set the tone in her response to the Chancellor‘s statement, failing to outline any alternative policies or to admit a shred of culpability on behalf of the previous government for the economic mess in which the UK finds itself. The detail will be teased out over the next few days, but Andrew Tyrie MP, chairman of the Treasury Select Committee, delivered the best instant assessment, concluding that the budget represents a good start for a government determined to take radical action on the deficit. In George Osborne’s speech great emphasis was placed on the ’progressive’ credentials of the coalition’s plans.  The Liberal Democrats are of course determined to protect the perception that they are committed to fairness, but the Conservatives too, under Cameron’s leadership, have consistently challenged the cooption of the word ’progress’ t...

Last night’s ‘chancellors’ debate’ witnessed some uncomfortable moments for George Osborne. The Conservatives will be relieved to get his tussle with Alistair Darling and Vince Cable over, so early in the election campaign. Channel 4’s programme acted as a starting pistol for the parties’ television battle, but the Tories hope deft performances from David Cameron will give them the edge in three set-piece leaders debates, which form the centre-piece to TV poll coverage. Although Osborne made a brave attempt at ’triangulating’ his pitch to both traditional Conservative voters and the centre ground, the shadow chancellor struggled to defend his party’s latest pledge on National Insurance. Whereas, just a year ago, the Tory message was confident and it was conservative politics which fizzed with intellectual energy, the imminent election, and narrowing poll leads, have caused the party and its leader to look less sure-footed. Despite the ’gravitational pull’ of the Thatcherite right...

I'm currently reading 'The Conservative Party: From Thatcher to Cameron' by Tim Bale. The book examines the Tories' years in the wilderness and examines failures of strategy which yielded three heavy general election defeats on the trot. Bale produces some compelling evidence to sustain his contention that Conservatives were slow to recognise their 1997 defeat as a genuine repudiation of Thatcherism. The three leaders who succeeded John Major, to a greater or lesser extent, concentrated on a 'core vote' strategy, playing to the Tory gallery, rather than developing policies to appeal to a broad section of the British public. It is only under David Cameron, Bale insists, that the Conservative party has begun to re-engage with the centre ground voters who generally determine the outcome of general elections. It is a convincing theory, with sits easily with the latest thinking in political science departments. Indeed, on the basis of opinion poll evidence, the...

Polly Toynbee's latest ‘class war’ piece is a conceptually threadbare piece of writing. I get the impression that whilst she still feels compelled to bang the tribal political drum she is now barely convinced by her own arguments. Despite what Toynbee might contend, the Cameron Conservative message that a Tory government will prioritise poverty is getting through. It has remained a consistent thread through various policy documents. The simple truth is that the Guardian columnist instinctively recoils from an approach which tackles the causes of poverty as well as its symptoms. Thus measures which encourage responsibility, help people into work or remove tax penalties on married couples and savers are presented, not as attempts to nourish society, but rather, in Polly’s world, become unconscionable attacks on the poor. Toynbee argues that each of the shadow chancellor George Osborne’s tax plans is intended to benefit the seriously wealthy. Her claims do not bear scrutiny. ...

Heresy is the theme for Burke’s Corner’s coverage of the Tory conference, and today the shibboleth BC chooses to transgress is the notion that Conservatives should always advocate tax cuts. Yesterday George Osborne gave a speech which offered a defence of progressive taxation, as a justifiable obligation, levied to the end of a fair and functioning society. As far as Brian is concerned, free market liberalism is not the only, or even the main strand, which comprises modern conservatism, and although the shadow chancellor ‘genuflected in the direction of the tabernacle of low taxes’ he is edging towards a more authentic vision, acknowledging that slashing taxes is not always a free standing virtue. This blog has previously stressed the importance of the Conservative party keeping distance between its modern incarnation and its Thatcherite past. Although Burke’s Corner argues persuasively that combating budget deficit now represents ‘the great cause of conservatism’, it is vital t...

Following Vince Cable’s contribution to the genre, Comment is Free carries a further instalment of ‘Tory Apocalypse’ fiction, timed to coincide with the party conference. Because Scots’ nationalists don’t like Conservatives, the tale is told, and because a Conservative government would be obliged to seek cuts, the UK is bound to break up, should the party win a general election. You are, no doubt, familiar with the fantasy; the party of Union presiding over the Union’s untimely demise. It rests upon the premise that a Cameron administration would not prioritise the integrity of the United Kingdom, as it formulates policy, and it assumes that a Tory government would pursue cuts as zealously as its opponents claim. It is my suspicion that, in practice, a centrist Conservative treasury will economise less fiercely than the party itself cares to admit. There will be cuts, as there are already under Labour, and there will certainly be a radical change in emphasis for public services,...

The Times reports that the Conservative leadership is planning to review its commitments to defence spending, a prospect which ConHome believes will ‘unnerve’ many of its readers. Although suggestions that shadow defence secretary, Liam Fox, has differences with the shadow chancellor, George Osborne, are a legitimate source of concern for Tory supporters, it would be neither unreasonable, nor unwise, for a Conservative treasury to consider cuts to the defence budget. Despite Britain’s entanglement in Afghanistan, perhaps even because of it, substantial savings are possible. The former shadow home secretary, David Davis, has, for some time, maintained that the UK’s nuclear deterrent should be up for discussion. A Conservative government had been expected to remain committed to replacing Trident, the nuclear submarine system, at a cost of £20 billion. It now appears that other options will be investigated, as part of a Strategic Defence Review, should the Tories form the next gover...

Another week, another keynote speech expected from a member of the shadow cabinet. Chris Grayling, prospective home secretary in a Tory government, will tomorrow expound upon the well worn Cameron Conservative theme, ‘broken Britain’, highlighting crime, gangsterism, poverty and social immobility, which he believes have flourished under the stewardship of a Labour government. It is a further development of the themes which George Osborne laid out in a recent speech at Demos, when he referred to the modern Conservative party as the ‘dominant progressive force’ in British politics. The Tories argue that they are espousing constructive social policies, in tune with a Conservative ethos, which offer the best means to tackle the unique set of problems which the United Kingdom faces. Grayling presaged his speech with an article in a popular Sunday newspaper. Three Thousand Versts loathes the journal, and its daily sister, so profoundly that any link to its website would compromise our p...

The think tank Demos was considered critical to the development of Blairism. Now, reflecting an altered political landscape, it is often mentioned in conjunction with David Cameron and his ‘progressive conservatism’ project. This afternoon, George Osborne will deliver a speech on the topic, at Demos, which has been extensively trailed in the media this morning. The shadow chancellor will stress Conservative commitment to social values, communitarianism, localism and green issues, and contrast it with Labour’s woeful record on civil liberties and centralism. This blog has consistently advocated strong emphasis of these aspects of the Tory agenda. I have argued that David Cameron should, on no account, capitulate to the wing of his party which views the economic crisis as a pretext to drop policies aimed at building a fairer, happier society. To his credit, the Conservative leader has resisted this temptation, whilst delivering a strong message on fiscal accountability. Steve Hil...

Northern Ireland’s new Finance Minister, Sammy Wilson, has been showing off the grasp of economics which he acquired teaching the subject at Grosvenor High School. Let’s not forget that he was head of department and helped to set some exams. The East Antrim MP has repeated the DUP’s occasional mantra of ‘Tory cuts’ which, whilst it is echoes a theme developed by Labour leader Gordon Brown, does not quite share the Prime Minister’s intellectual disingenuousness. He is simply lying about his intentions for the economy but the DUP neither knows nor cares about the national picture, as long as Northern Ireland retains the same sized slice of a diminishing pie. None of which is new or particularly surprising, but Sammy has accompanied his pre-empting of Conservative policy with some ludicrous claims, wonky sums and awe-inspiring ignorance. Wilson demonstrates his wobbly grasp of Tory pledges by claiming that George Osborne has promised to ‘ring fence’ spending on health and education....

Neil O’Brien argues in the Telegraph that the Conservatives should drop plans to cut inheritance tax. I can see his point. Although George Osborne’s proposal is to be funded by a tax on non-doms, it is inconsistent with the imperative of tackling Britain’s budget deficit. Quite simply, tax cuts are an aspiration for governments beyond the immediate future. In the short term priority must be given to combating the public debt and delivering public services as efficiently as possible, whilst striving to retain quality. Making inheritance tax an exception to an important rule has the capacity to confuse an issue where the Conservatives appear increasingly credible in comparison to Labour. The electorate is not naïve enough to swallow Gordon Brown’s claims that his government represents continued investment in public services, whilst the Tories offer cuts. It is fully appraised of the baleful state of the nation’s finances. But whilst voters understand that spending will be slashed...

An ‘age of austerity’ is the cliché to which journalists have taken recourse in the aftermath of Wednesday’s budget. The Guardian’s Martin Kettle reminds readers that it will almost certainly be Conservatives who must steward the economy through the difficult years from 2010 (many of Alistair Darling’s proposals are to be implemented during the next parliament). Nick Robinson describes the forthcoming difficulties in similar terms and doggedly presses the Chancellor to admit that, evasive language not withstanding, he will be cutting public expenditure. Darling’s prognosis of an economy overburdened with debt has scarcely surprised the vast majority of observers. And many commentators believe that the government is being much too optimistic in its appraisal of Britain’s ability to cope with mounting indebtedness whilst also embarking upon a financial recovery. If the IMF comprises a substantial impartial authority on national economies (and the Prime Minister has given every ind...

I welcomed David Cameron’s speech, given last week, in which he acknowledged that it might not be possible to deliver tax cuts early in a Conservative administration. In the wake of his address, however, a degree of controversy has enveloped Tory thinking on the economy, focussed particularly on two contentious tax policies. Although Ken Clarke’s remarks , which appeared to contradict his party’s pledge to raise the threshold for Inheritance Tax, have attracted headlines and speculation, they represent the less telling aspect of the debate. Iain Dale urges Clarke to accept that his comments constitute a ‘gaffe’. The Conservative party still intends to commit in its manifesto to a £1million minimum for Inheritance Tax. More fundamental is the argument about 45p tax, for those who earn more then £150,000 per year, and whether Conservatives should reverse that Labour measure when they come to power. It reflects something of a long-standing fault-line in the party, between ‘One Nati...

I previously recorded scepticism as to the efficacy of Labour’s 2.5% VAT cut, aimed at stimulating the ailing economy. Preliminary estimates indicate that in the run up to Christmas the government’s strategy proved an abject failure. Whilst shoppers are now responding to slashed sales’ prices, a tiny cut on most consumer goods proved neither here nor there. In response George Osborne is preparing to unveil the Conservatives’ proposed tax cuts. At first glance these alternatives appear to make considerably more sense than Labour’s £12 billion scheme. These cuts will be funded, promising to mitigate the crippling burden of debt which the current government is intent on inflicting on Britain’s tax payers. If Osborne becomes chancellor he will seek to cut National Insurance Contributions, which Labour has stealthily increased. Slashing NIC will benefit all earners as well as businesses, thus providing a real stimulus which finds its way directly into people’s pockets. Additional...

After Labour excoriated shadow chancellor, George Osborne, for ‘irresponsibility’ and ‘talking down’ the pound, over the weekend, the Tories have launched what has every appearance of an effective comeback on economic issues. In the Telegraph, Boris Johnson defends his colleague’s right to offer a prognosis on the economy. Although this contention might appear self-evident, the government has reacted with increasing petulance on each occasion that an opposition politician dares to question the wisdom of Gordon Brown’s economic plans. Labour chose to interpret Conservative support for its bank bail-out as an open ended commitment to support all of its anti-recessionary measures. As Brown’s spending pledges become increasingly extravagant, and as tax cutting initiatives are launched in tandem, then it is not only inevitable that opposition politicians will challenge him, it is their duty to do so. Johnson asks, “How can there possibly be a "convention" that stops shadow c...

Brian Crowe has marshalled a calm response to Gordon Brown’s conference speech, avoiding the spittle flecked apoplexy which it induced in me. Over at Burke’s Corner he has provided a thoughtful critique of its weaknesses, synthesising the most penetrating comment from newspapers and the web. Brown’s speech was aimed primarily at repairing damaged morale within his own party. Brian’s view is that, consequently, it did little to speak to the country as a whole and where the Prime Minister bothered to address pressing issues at all, his rhetoric was heavy on platitudes and light on specific policy. Burke’s Corner is eagerly looking forward to David Cameron’s response at next week’s Conservative party conference. Similarly, Gaby Hinsliff has turned her attention towards next week’s proceedings in Birmingham, asking ‘what does Cameron have to do to win back initiative?’ at the Guardian’s politics blog. Although the article’s title somewhat presupposes the disputable thesis that Brown...