Monday, 29 September 2008

Faint hearts never won fair ..... er ....... Cameron

As the moment when the Ulster Unionist and Conservative parties must reveal the detail of their new relationship draws closer, perhaps some of those in the smaller party can be forgiven the odd wobble of resolve. With the modalities as yet unclear, and the stakes for the UUP undoubtedly higher, it is natural for party members to wonder whether the course their leader has set is the correct one. If, to extend the Politics Show’s rather laborious metaphor, Empey and Cameron are on the cusp of political marriage (an interesting image I grant you), there were always bound to be some pre-wedding nerves.

With the Conservative party conference commencing yesterday, commentators have begun to reflect some of this last minute anxiety, particularly as theory is put into practice and the Tories and UUP begin to sound like one party. Lord Trimble rounded off the conference’s first day by rallying his Conservative colleagues to contest every seat in the UK. This explicit statement of intent has worried Ignited, who explains his apprehension on Redemption’s Son. He is concerned that Trimble’s declaration might suggest an arrangement rather different from the CDU/ CSU model which Ulster unionist blogs have advocated as the probable shape for the emerging movement.

I disagree. I do not see anything new or threatening in Trimble’s remarks. From their inception, the idea of talks between the two parties was to emerge with a movement whereby the Tories could claim to encompass the whole of the UK. I don’t think that Ulster Unionists need be disconcerted by the rhetoric which accompanies this. Yes, the UUP must retain something of its own identity and ethos, but equally, if it is to mean anything, the realignment must connect the two parties in a clear and unequivocal fashion. Ulster Unionist candidates will be representing their own party in coming elections, but they will also be representing the wider alliance with Conservatives. They will be Conservative and Ulster Unionist and if the Tories have any compunction in claiming them as their own, then, frankly, the deal has not been worth pursuing.

I have stated previously that by no means do I think of myself as naturally conservative. Nevertheless, the predominant emotion which I am feeling on the verge of Sir Reg and Dave’s nuptials is one of excitement. Excitement that a UK-wide unionist movement is being forged, excitement that Northern Irish unionists are being invited to play a full role in their nation’s politics and, increasingly, excitement that the side we will be on, is the side which is committed to preserving British civil liberties and ousting the political bankruptcy of Gordon Brown’s Labour Party.

There is one thing which I must insist. Sir Reg is the groom.

193 comments:

Anonymous said...

Chekov,

I am aware of the talks that have been going on. I won't reveal my identity, but I can confirm that, from the Tory side, there isn't a cat-in-hell's chance of some sort of alliance being acceptable. For them, it's either the full-on merger under the "Conservative & Unionist" banner or they walk away.

The view is that an alliance will have zero electoral bounce because the electorate will rightly perceive it as being the UUP repackaged. The Tory view is that they have nothing to lose by pushing it to the full merger.

They believe that either the UUP does the deal now and both parties benenfit or the Tories spend the next 10 years bulldoziong the shudder wreck of the UUP. That's why the statement on running in 18 seats come what may has been made.

Chekov said...

“The view is that an alliance will have zero electoral bounce because the electorate will rightly perceive it as being the UUP repackaged. The Tory view is that they have nothing to lose by pushing it to the full merger.”

First of, I agree entirely that the changes need to be profound, otherwise it will just be a repackaging exercise. I don’t think that is in the interests of either party. Although, on the other hand, if the new movement is not connected in the electorate’s mind with the old UUP in fairly explicit fashion, then the new foothold is lost and you are merely left with a relaunched Tories NI, which appeals to voters less than the UUP. I think it is in both parties’ interests to maintain a LITTLE distance, even a little deniability, for the time being. As long as it is made very clear that candidates are Conservative and Ulster Unionist candidates, rather than Ulster Unionist affiliated to the Conservatives or Ulster Unionist taking the Tory whip, I don’t see the problem from the Conservative perspective. Obviously you have some knowledge of what’s going on, but I would be surprised, and disappointed, if the Tories show no sensitivity toward allowing the UUP to maintain something of its identity, even if it is very clearly within the Tory tent.

“They believe that either the UUP does the deal now and both parties benenfit or the Tories spend the next 10 years bulldoziong the shudder wreck of the UUP. That's why the statement on running in 18 seats come what may has been made.”

The statement made fairly clear reference to the UUP’s help. Btw I agree with your comments regarding SB / FST on Redemption’s Son.

Anonymous said...

If the Conservative Party could deliver the votes and seats themselves, then there would be no need for any talks/negotiations with the UUP.

The reality, of course, is that the NI Conservatives are a bunch of electoral incompetents--peaking at around 6% in 1992 and now down to 0.5%.

There isn't going to be a merger. It would never get through the party Executive or the UUC---and with the likes of Lady Hermon, Alan McFarland, Alex Kane, Lord Maginnis, David McNarry having voiced opposition to a merger, Empey would be very foolish to put it up for endorsement.

The local Tories can go f--- themselves. This project is their only opportunity for anything resembling credibility in NI. They may as well walk now now, because they ain't getting a full-on merger.

And as for Trimble and the threat of the Tories standing in every constituency here---bring it on, David, bring it on.

yourcousin said...

This may be a dumb question, but I'll ask it anyways. Currently what is the difference between the Tories and the UUP? Now I know Lady Hermon votes with Labour but what about historically? I'm aware of the the UUPs propping up Major as well. Has the UUP historically voted in line with the Conservatives? And aside from the abortion thing which is a disgrace all the way around is this anything more than the Tories trying to beat Brown at his own game and allowing the UUP to act like their important again?

yourcousin said...

PS
Hate to say it Chekov but while Reg may be many things, in this relationship he is definitely not the groom.

Chekov said...

Yourcousin – the UUP would’ve taken the Conservative whip at Westminster up to the 1980s (as far as I’m aware). Although the party was independent and its membership covered a broader coalition than Tories. Labour groups etc. were also represented in the UUP. In general though, the party leaned and probably still leans toward the Conservatives. Btw I’m not entirely clear what you’re on about in terms of abortion. Abortion is not an issue in terms of the merger / realignment.

Oh and Reg is the man cos I say he is. Northern Irish male pride insists on it!

yourcousin said...

Sorry I should have been clearer. My question refers to my suspicion that the UUP has been the NI Tories since essentially the formation of the statelet so this new "official" merger is simply repackaging the OUP as a Cameronite entity with little or no change in policy or outlook. The abortion reference was in regards to the fact that all of the NI parties opposed allowing abortions in NI including the UUP. Which to me means that they are opposed to British law in their part of the United Kingdom.

I guess I would prod even further and ask how the merger or coalition (whatever you want to call it) is actually going to affect things on the ground? At the risk of going off on a sidetrack I would hesitantly point out a post by Chris Donnolly which to me highlights some of the problems faced by the new coalition. It is all very well to go on about how Britishness provides an overarching identity within which there is room for multi-confessional identities and the like, but how does that vision square with this reality? And how would the Tories have handled this one?

And NI male pride has demanded many things, but in reality you gave it up when Adair played "Simply the Best" sorry, he ruined it for everyone.

Chekov said...

“Sorry I should have been clearer. My question refers to my suspicion that the UUP has been the NI Tories since essentially the formation of the statelet so this new "official" merger is simply repackaging the OUP as a Cameronite entity with little or no change in policy or outlook. The abortion reference was in regards to the fact that all of the NI parties opposed allowing abortions in NI including the UUP. Which to me means that they are opposed to British law in their part of the United Kingdom.”

I don’t disagree on the abortion issue. Clearly there have been substantial differences between the UUP and the Conservatives since the formation of Northern Ireland. If they now find that there is a convergence of policy then it makes realignment all the more logical. By the way please try and refrain from gratuitously derogatory terminology such as ‘statelet’. This isn’t Slugger and I have no intention of allowing the comments zones to assume that shape.

“I guess I would prod even further and ask how the merger or coalition (whatever you want to call it) is actually going to affect things on the ground? At the risk of going off on a sidetrack I would hesitantly point out a post by Chris Donnolly which to me highlights some of the problems faced by the new coalition. It is all very well to go on about how Britishness provides an overarching identity within which there is room for multi-confessional identities and the like, but how does that vision square with this reality? And how would the Tories have handled this one?”

Firstly the post you highlight is irrelevant, as you would expect from someone whose entire output on Slugger comprises ‘look what themmuns done’. I have no knowledge of the dispute (or interest in it). It seems like the guy was badly treated many years ago, but not giving him freedom of the town is not infringing any rights. A realignment would effect things on the ground by providing voters with a much more direct line of accountability to Westminster. Quite simple really. Obviously any advance on breaking down sectional barriers would be welcome too.

Anonymous said...

"The local Tories can go f--- themselves. This project is their only opportunity for anything resembling credibility in NI. They may as well walk now now, because they ain't getting a full-on merger."

LOL! OK. You stay the way you are. Nicholson will probably lose his seat to Allister next June. Sylvia's seat may be captured by the DUP - if it isn't it will definitely go to Weir or Easton after she retires. Virtually all of your Assembly members are over 60 and you're about to run out of money.

Now, tell me who's got the most to lose? This is the UUP's last lifeboat to redemption. It's this road or the high road. Over to you...

yourcousin said...

No disrespect meant on the "statelet" thing. As an American I find the linguistics interesting but have a lack of sensitivity, my apologies. I think what you said does highlight some of the inconsistencies of the proposed merger. Namely that if there's a convergence of policy then all the better. Which is basically admitting that policy is not driving the merger and a cynic (namely me) might read it solely as a publicity stunt so that Cameron can best Brown on claiming "Britishness" and the UUP are given a new lease on life.

I added the "hesitantly" because I was afraid that the fact that it was Donnolly posting would affect people's reactions. I would fully acknowledge that denying him freedom of the town does not infringe upon any rights as freedom of the town is a privilege. But I thought it did touch upon many of the themes that you post upon.

"Pluralism, tolerance and diversity are three of the precepts we cherish as guaranteed under the Union"

and

"the United Kingdom provides the institutions and constitutional framework which have developed a modern, secular, multi-national, multi-cultural and economically successful state"

Those two snippets that you'll recognize from your own writings which you highlight on the sidebar about Unionism. Forget Donnelly, forget about point scoring nationalists and republicans. You're an extremely intelligent and articulate proponent of Unionism which you claim represents the above. I freely acknowledge that this is your blog and you can respond and be interested, or not in any subject you wish (which has always been part of the appeal of this blog). But are you seriously telling me that this situation is okay with you? Are you telling me that when (in 2008) a UUP councillor says that trying to honor a man who stood up against terrorism triggers a reaction of, "This is something that unionists in the town will be very angry about”. Is a legitimate response?

You have in the past reminded us, fitfully I might add that,

" Unionism is not an ethnic label, nor is it an identity. Unionism is adherence to a political belief."

you write that the merger is a chance for normalization to take root in NI. The question brought before you is not about historical inequalities, but a choice between a Union which cherishes and fights for the things you wrote about or one which simply pays eloquent lip service to those noble principles. I would hpoe that a, "much more direct line of accountability to Westminster" would encompass those values. Otherwise it's just one more electoral ploy.

And again to end on a positive note. Finished and thoroughly enjoyed "Master and Margarita". I'm now reading "Irish Freedom". Thanks for including, Gogol, Chekov, and Tolstoy in your secondary list, I always enjoyed them.

Chekov said...

“No disrespect meant on the "statelet" thing. As an American I find the linguistics interesting but have a lack of sensitivity, my apologies.”

Apology accepted. No huge deal, its just a term normally used in the type of linguistic war which really isn’t very constructive and which I don’t want to de-civilise debate here.

“I think what you said does highlight some of the inconsistencies of the proposed merger. Namely that if there's a convergence of policy then all the better. Which is basically admitting that policy is not driving the merger and a cynic (namely me) might read it solely as a publicity stunt so that Cameron can best Brown on claiming "Britishness" and the UUP are given a new lease on life.”

There’s a range of drivers as far as I can see. Certainly one is to forge a pan UK unionist movement, which is to the good, as far as I’m concerned. Another is a convergence of policy whereby most unionist voters find Conservative policy more convivial than that of Labour. Into the bargain, the Tories have begun to cycle back from free market liberalism a little and are pedalling a message which aspires to be more socially aware. That eases the journey some UUP members are being asked to make. It’s not a publicity stunt, but certainly it needs to be in the interests of the parties. That’s just politics.

“Those two snippets that you'll recognize from your own writings which you highlight on the sidebar about Unionism. Forget Donnelly, forget about point scoring nationalists and republicans. You're an extremely intelligent and articulate proponent of Unionism which you claim represents the above. I freely acknowledge that this is your blog and you can respond and be interested, or not in any subject you wish (which has always been part of the appeal of this blog). But are you seriously telling me that this situation is okay with you? Are you telling me that when (in 2008) a UUP councillor says that trying to honor a man who stood up against terrorism triggers a reaction of, "This is something that unionists in the town will be very angry about”. Is a legitimate response?”

I’ve only got the Slugger and media reports to tell me whether that has been the response. I genuinely don’t know anything about the man! Perhaps there are very sound reasons to give him the honour, perhaps things are more complicated. I don’t know. What I have read is to the effect that he received death threats and was hounded out of Limavady because he shook hands with a Catholic priest. That sounds terrible, and if it is the case then it is a depressing and disgusting indictment of sectarianism in this country. Perhaps I’m being naïve, but surely there must have been something more to the story, even if there is a sectarian aspect. I don’t know! I’m not from Limavady, I was very young at the time these events were unfolding and I don’t have any great knowledge of religious disputes.

“you write that the merger is a chance for normalization to take root in NI. The question brought before you is not about historical inequalities, but a choice between a Union which cherishes and fights for the things you wrote about or one which simply pays eloquent lip service to those noble principles. I would hpoe that a, "much more direct line of accountability to Westminster" would encompass those values. Otherwise it's just one more electoral ploy.”

It should. It certainly should. I’d have little doubt that it will. Perhaps UUP reps have behaved badly in Limavady. I don’t know. It would be atypical.

“And again to end on a positive note. Finished and thoroughly enjoyed "Master and Margarita". I'm now reading "Irish Freedom". Thanks for including, Gogol, Chekov, and Tolstoy in your secondary list, I always enjoyed them.”

I’m glad you enjoyed M & M. I’ve no doubt that you’ll find Irish Freedom very accessible. No problem on the list. It was fun to compile.

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