Three Thousand Versts of Loneliness

The events in Omagh on Saturday rather put petty party-political squabbles into perspective.  Still, our electoral wheels turn, regardless of the futile, nihilistic violence which subsists at the edges of our society. Over at Slugger, Mick preview’s the DUP’s 2011 election broadcast .  Like any party promo it’s ripe for parody.  DR points out the resemblance to a DIY store advert and the puzzling detail that its two stars are apparently getting up at 3 minutes past eight in the evening, in order to do a spot of decorating. These quibbles aside, no-one would deny that it’s a slick production but in my opinion it’s also a trifle bland.  There’s the predictable ’unionist unity’ sting in the tail but in keeping with the party’s ’modern’ image it‘s a little coy.  More “nudge, nudge, wink, wink” than “smash Sinn Féin”.

My column from Friday's Irish News (not online). In seven days time the assembly will dissolve ahead of May’s election.  That means anyone who’d got used to the current cuddly relationship between the DUP and Sinn Féin will have to readjust. For a six week period the parties will inhabit only one of Northern Ireland’s parallel political realities.   It used to be known as normality.  It’s a place where the ‘budget buddies’ are implacable foes. So where a week or two ago, he was lauding Caitriona Ruane and Conor Murphy for their prowess in the executive, DUP leader Peter Robinson will claim he’s the man to halt Sinn Féin in its tracks. His colleague in the first minister’s office, Martin McGuinness, will cease being a responsible partner in government and resume his role as chief menace to loyal Ulster. Meanwhile the Shinners will stop acting like Sammy Wilson‘s backing chorus.  Instead we’ll hear a lot  about the “united Ireland project” which is rollin...

With the Republic’s general election done and dusted (not withstanding the small matter of forming a government), campaigning is about to get underway in earnest in Northern Ireland.  This morning the DUP announces its candidates for the Assembly, with polling for both Stormont and local councils set for 5th May. Alan in Belfast appears to have scooped this morning’s newspapers and the BBC.  You can read the complete DUP line-up and his analysis over at Slugger .  There are some signs of the party‘s much vaunted change of direction on the list, but it also contains its fair share of grizzled veterans. At Open Unionism O’Neill congratulates the DUP for its partially successful action on double mandates.  He notes that the party’s participation at Westminster has increased exponentially during this term and he chalks that up as one of the few positive legacies of UCUNF. It’s fair enough comment, but it should be said, the DUP has tackled double jobbing - except...

One of the batch of recent Ulster Unionist defectors, David McClarty, has decided to defend his Stormont seat  as an independent.  The East Londonderry MLA was the only UUP candidate to squeak home in that constituency last time , although he was still some 2,000 votes under quota. His decision will give the party a major headache.  It is running two of its brighter prospects in East Londonderry, Lesley Macaulay and David Harding, but there was always a suspicion that the Ulster Unionists would have to settle for one seat.  McClarty’s involvement throws even that likelihood into considerable doubt. In the 2010 general election Macaulay claimed a reasonably creditable total of 6,218 votes.  This time round some of those voters will stick with McClarty and those who remain loyal to the Ulster Unionists will be spread across two candidates.  Things are likely to get very tight and only the most indefatigable UUP optimist would predict a gain in East Lond...

O'Neill has already dealt with Tom Elliott's demand that the Conservatives wind up their local branch in Northern Ireland.  I want to pick up on a different point raised by the UUP leader in his address  at Westminster.  According to the Irish Times: The UUP believes it could win 24 seats in next year’s Assembly elections if the Conservatives do not field candidates, but this number could fall by two if they do. Now there's confidence and there's cloud cuckoo land!  From where on earth do the Ulster Unionists draw the notion that they'll gain between 5-7 Assembly seats in next year's election? My suspicion is that they've simply fallen back on figures from the European election. There's a growing history of the UUP setting itself up for humiliation by making outlandish pre-election predictions.  Does the party never learn?  You can't factor in events, but as it stands, the UUP will do well to keep 17 seats.  At the very outside it might nick 18...

Cross posted on Open Unionism . As promised , some reaction to the UUP Assembly candidates list, revealed yesterday.  Like O’Neill, the first name which took my eye was Reg Empey, whose impending elevation to the Conservative benches at the House of Lords has not prevented his selection for East Belfast. On ‘Unionist Lite’ Michael Shilliday notes that the Lords is neither an elected nor a salaried position and therefore the party treats it as exempt from strictures on double-jobbing.  That will be considered, by most people, to be too convenient a get out. Simply, if you can’t be a Lord and remain in the House of Commons, neither should you become a Lord and remain at the Assembly.  If the UUP wants to wriggle out on a technicality then there will be criticism and, in my opinion, it will be justified. It has been suggested that the party’s process has simply not caught up with Empey’s sudden peerage.  I hope that that is the case and that an alternative cand...

I'll hopefully get to comment on the list soon, but just at the moment I'm between a Queen's medical school prize-giving (not on my own behalf I might add) and rushing out to gavaryoo pa Russki, so, without any added value, here are the UUP's Assembly election candidates: North Antrim:            Bill Kennedy                Robin Swann   East Antrim:              Roy Beggs (Jnr)        Rodney McCune   South Antrim:            Danny Kinahan          Adrian Watson   North Belfast:             Fred Cobain   West Belfast:        ...

The news that UKIP intends to contest Assembly elections in Northern Ireland emerged toward the end of last week. Yesterday the BBC carried a brief snippet about the story, including reaction from deputy leader, Paul Nuttall, who reckons that ’a fragmentation of unionism’ makes it a great time for the party to become involved in politics here. That’s an odd reading of the political mood, by any stretch of the imagination.  UKIP struggles to attract attention in the rest of the UK, other than at European elections and the field already looks rather crowded for the Stormont poll, next May. It’s just about possible that, in a proportional election, UKIP candidates might claim a few transfers.  The party does have a Northern Ireland councillor to its name, Henry Reilly, in Newry and Mourne, although he won his seat as an Ulster Unionist, before defecting in 2007. Perhaps UKIP hopes the Republic’s financial crisis, and its disastrous experience with the Euro might send a w...

Northern Ireland’s political parties face a triple electoral whammy next May, with local council and assembly polls taking place at the same time as the Alternative Vote referendum. I wonder what appetite hard-working activists and an apathetic general public will have for campaigns starting in the grey months of Winter and running into the early Spring? No doubt some of our representatives will be more up for the fight than others.  Still, it’s hard to envisage them inspiring a healthy turnout from an indifferent electorate. If the menu of political options is unchanged, or even decreases from previous polls, even the anoraks among us may be scrabbling around for a candidate worth backing. One interesting question for the run-up to May 5th  2011, how will the local parties advise their supporters to vote on AV? If self-interest is the guiding principle, and surely it will be, you would imagine the UUP, SDLP and Alliance will back it enthusiastically, while the DUP ...