Three Thousand Versts of Loneliness

The surest outcome of Ukrainian elections is an acrimonious dispute after the results come in.  Yesterday the country took to the polls once again, as Yanukovych’s Party of the Regions faced its first big test since the presidential run-off. Exit polls for the local elections suggest that the President’s party has retained its lead, with 36.2% backing Yanukovych’s group.  That compares favourably to 35.32% recorded by the Party of the Regions in the first round of the presidential vote.  Yanukovych eventually won that contest in a run off, securing 48.95% to Yulia Tymoshenko’s 45.47%. Back in January and February, there was unanimous consensus among international observers that the right result had been reached.  The OSCE found the poll ’free and fair’. Representatives from the CIS Interparliamentary Assembly have already concurred with the Prime Minister’s verdict that no major violations were registered this time either. Still, a flawless poll didn’t sto...

There’s bitter irony in Yulia Tymoshenko’s latest claim that the new president, Viktor Yanukovych, is dismantling democracy in Ukraine.  In the aftermath of February’s election, Tymoshenko refused to accept her defeat at Yanukovych’s hands, despite unanimous agreement from international observers that the poll was free and fair. The former prime minister’s comments are timed to coincide with Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev’s, visit to Kiev.  Both Yanukovych and Medvedev are keen to foster a constructive relationship between their two countries, repairing the turbulent relationship which existed when the nationalist, Viktor Yushchenko, was president of Ukraine. The new Ukrainian regime has set its sights on a rapprochement with Russia, which doesn’t compromise its relationship with the EU.  Yanukovych has made it abundantly clear that he still has ambitions to steer Ukraine towards European Union membership, while avoiding needlessly antagonising its powerful nei...

I’d overlooked this gem from the Moscow Times, but MT highlighted it on Facebook. It is a piece by regular contributor, and host of a political talk show on liberal radio station Ekho Moskvy, Yulia Latynina. The ironic thing is that, although columnists like Tim Garton Ash would never couch their own pieces in such terms, you get the feeling that the sentiment is not entirely dissimilar as regards the Ukraine election. The odd limp acknowledgment of the democratic process has generally accompanied deeply condescending analyses of the electorate’s choice. Now, full disclosure here, living in Northern Ireland, with a cohort of ex terrorists in government alongside the Free P Taliban, only the insensate have never questioned whether democracy always produces an ideal outcome. In the most trying circumstances we remind ourselves of Churchill’s maxim, that democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those others which have been tried from time to time. And we con...

The OSCE has hailed Ukraine's presidential election as “open, transparent and honest” , yet Yulia Tymoshenko claims she will never accept Viktor Yanukkovych’s victory. This is the scion of democracy whose defeat is causing wailing and gnashing of teeth in some newspapers. The truth is that the coverage of recent Ukrainian politics has been exposed by Yanukovych’s victory. The zero sum game between western liberalisers and neo-Soviet bureaucrats, consistently portrayed in the papers, was misleading. Ukraine’s ‘Orange Revolution’ was not a defiant repudiation of Russia and an embrace of the so-called west. Voters wished to see an end to corruption in politics and economic stability. Viktor Yushchenko resoundingly failed to deliver and the electorate has chosen to try another approach. The idea that Yanukovych vs. Tymoshenko represented Russia vs. The West was equally misleading. Vladimir Putin is said to enjoy a positive relationship with Tymoshenko and regards Yanukovych wit...

Yesterday Ukraine went to the polls in an election which will unseat the current president Victor Yushchenko. 90% of the ballots were counted today and there is now likely to be a run off in February between Victor Yanukovych, the pre-poll favourite, and Yulia Tymoshenko. Although Yanukovych claimed approximately 35% of the vote, in comparison to 25% for Tymoshenko, analysts are speculating that Tymoshenko is likely to pick up more support from candidates eliminated in the first round. It is thought that the present incumbent is languishing on about 6% of ballots cast. Western interest in Ukrainian elections is entirely pre-occupied with the perceived ’pro western’ or ’pro Russian’ leanings of the candidates. Forth magazine has an excellent corrective , from the Ukrainian perspective. It echoes a piece by James Marson , a journalist based in Kiev, who made a similar argument, in the aftermath of last year’s wrangle over gas. It is simply not the case that Ukrainians go to the ...

Russia Profile highlights the seasonal ‘pantomime’ which takes place every year when Russia suggests that Ukraine should pay for its gas. Gazprom is threatening to put up its prices to supply Ukraine with gas to ‘European market levels’ if the cash strapped state does not pay up. Meanwhile the Ukrainians demand a stay of execution and negotiations. An EU expert on energy supplies, Pierre Noel, observes, “Every year in December the Russians say to Ukrainians, ‘OK, you have to pay for the gas you consume,’ and the Ukrainians say ‘well, let’s negotiate’.” If the Russians get angry enough they can close off the pipe, as they did in 2006. The Ukrainians will then steal gas intended for Gazprom’s major customers in Europe. So they come to some kind of settlement and then next winter it starts all over again.” Although analysts disagree as to the extent of the problem, there is largely consensus that fault is on the Ukrainian, rather than the Russian side. Ukraine is insistent on using ...

The IMF is to lend Ukraine £10.4 billion in an attempt to stabilise its economy. Although the conditions are as yet unclear , it would appear that a programme to save banks and trim costs will be required. In the face of this crisis Victor Yushchenko seems determined to continue his feud with Yulia Tymoshenko and force an early election. Ukraine is particularly susceptible to the current financial crisis because it has borrowed heavily in order to bring its economy into line with the west. With steel exports collapsing and the hryvnia rapidly devaluing there is real risk that inflation could spiral higher than its current level of 25% (already the highest in Europe). Divisive leadership has contributed to Ukraine’s woes and there does not appear to be any will, on Yuschenko’s part, to mend bridges in order to tackle the crisis. Economists have warned that an election will exacerbate the inflationary pressure on the hryvnia and prevent the stability which Ukraine now desperately n...