Whatever result Monday brings, Conservative pact is future for the UUP

Attempting to draw conclusions as to a likely election result, from anecdotal evidence and vote tallying as the ballots are verified, constitutes a perilous business. The permutations of an STV poll are various and we will have to wait until the counts begin on Monday before speculation on possible winners is enlightened by even remotely reliable information. Nevertheless, conjecture is fun, so by all means get baselessly excited and explain below how, based on a box filled on Rathlin, which someone claims to have inspected, Agnew is a dead cert to top the poll.

I see little point in analysing, or giving credence to, specific contradictory rumours emerging on Slugger and elsewhere. The DUP or the SDLP may be doing well in South Belfast. The Conservatives and Unionists are either holding up stoutly in rural areas, or their vote is disintegrating across the board. A Jim might be cleaning up in Lagan Valley, but accounts as to which one is gleefully hoovering first preferences differ starkly.

Sweeping aside the more fanciful conjecture, two broad trends are being corroborated too often to be casually dismissed. First, turnout has dropped considerably. We might be looking at a record low for a European election in Northern Ireland. Second, fewer voters appear to have gone to the polls in areas which are considered unionist by tradition (see ULite for appropriate disclaimer). To make my own contribution to the gossip factory, in the Ballymena area there is some concern that stations which are normally strong for the UUP were polling exceptionally slowly.

Both the information which is attracting some corroboration and casual anecdote suggest to me that the Conservatives and Unionists need to be prepared for a result which is, at best, underwhelming. Given the nature of the alliance, the doubts expressed by Lady Hermon and the continued existence of a UUP ‘cultural unionist’ rump which still views its politics through the prism of a perceived ‘ unionist community’, anything less than a substantial increase in Jim Nicholson’s vote is not going to satisfy the sceptics. If the candidate is successful, it is unlikely to be a resounding success, and therefore there will inevitably be renewed criticism, from Ulster Unionists, of the Conservative alignment.

It is vital that in the face of some members’ disapproval the party leadership is both realistic and steadfast. Without sustaining huge financial and electoral damage, the UUP has travelled too far along the UCUNF path to retread its steps. It is not possible simply to start anew from the Ulster Unionists’ previous position or to turn the clock back twelve months.

The Conservative pact represents the only possible future for the party and if it is to be a success then it must be promoted with conviction by candidates which share its sensibility. It cannot be pursued with equivocation by candidates who share a political vocabulary with DUP opponents rather than Conservative colleagues. If that means that personnel have to be shed, then the party must be prepared to sustain that collateral.

Although the European election has provided a means by which to launch the Conservative and Unionist project, the pact, as I have remarked before, is built primarily for Westminster. It is essential that a wholehearted, united campaign, steeped in the inclusive, pan-UK unionism which has brought the parties together is put in train for the general election. Action to ensure that this happens should be decisive and should follow swiftly the announcement of the Euro poll results.