Belarus and Lukashenko's geopolitical balancing act

Kommersant, Russia’s business daily, carries an article examining the manner in which Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, plays Russian and western interests in his country off, one against the other, in order to strengthen his own position and copper-fasten the independence of the state. Translation renders the piece into somewhat idiosyncratic English, but it is worth persevering, because this is an interesting departure from perceived wisdom that Lukashenko, the vanity of a tyrant not withstanding, is effectively in the Kremlin’s pocket.

Fedor Lukyanov argues that Lukashenko has used Belarus’ strategic position, as the last bulwark separating Russia from NATO, to extract economic concessions from Russia, with the minimum secession of sovereignty and influence to the Kremlin. In tandem, Belarus’ proximity to both Russia and Poland allows Lukashenko to court the EU, without political pluralism ever seriously entering discussions.

Maintaining this delicate balance allows Lukashenko to retain such a firm grip on the governance of Belarus. To move too dramatically in either direction would compromise both his personal position, and the fragile sense of national identity which the country has established. It will be a geopolitical miscalculation, a movement in either direction from the centre of this see-saw, which Lukyanov believes may eventually account for Lukashenko’s regime.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Football fever in Russia

Russia Blog is getting excited about Euro 2008. Indeed it is drawing parallels between Guus Hiddink and Peter the Great in terms of successful Russo-Dutch exchanges of expertise. Meanwhile, in Moscow, fans have been taking to the streets in order to celebrate the national team’s achievements.
Read more

Stormont might not collapse but paramilitaries continue to disfigure Northern Ireland

Image
The devolved institutions in Northern Ireland are supposedly ‘teetering on the brink’ of collapse yet again.  After repeated failures to agree a balanced budget or implement welfare reform created months of uncertainty, the Executive’s future is now in doubt because the PSNI believes members of the IRA were involved in murdering a republican hit man.  Despite its apparent seriousness, this particular predicament is unlikely to bring the shaky edifice at Stormont crashing down. The IRA was supposed to have disbanded its military ‘structures’ and decommissioned its entire arsenal of weapons back in 2005.  It was on the basis of this understanding that power-sharing resumed in 2007 and the DUP entered government with Sinn Féin.  From the outset it was a fairly flimsy pretext.   Less than a year after John de Chastelain, the retired Canadian general, oversaw decommissioning, the Independent Monitoring Commission reported that the IRA retaine...
Read more

Walker loada rubbish

Former BBC employee Brian Walker has overrun Slugger O’Toole lately with countless poorly structured, poorly written posts. It is possible quickly to recognize and avoid these by subjecting each Slugger piece to a cursory inspection and identifying those which feature characteristic lack of paragraphing and a tenuous grasp on the technicalities of linking source articles. Although I generally evade Walker’s posts by this method, occasionally (and unfortunately) I have persevered and found that their content is as unrewarding as the style in which they are written. Today, for instance, I inflicted upon myself Brian’s thoughts on a mooted Fianna Fail / SDLP merger . In actual fact, he is right to welcome news that the Southern Irish party has dropped this proposal from its agenda; however, the logic by which he arrives at this conclusion is parochial nonsense. To summarise, Walker believes that pursuing realignment with larger parties, whether they are from the rest of the UK or fro...
Read more