'Bank of evidence' revealed government's threadbare lockdown reasoning

 On Saturday, Boris Johnson announced that England will endure a four week lockdown, joining Northern Ireland and Wales, where so-called ‘circuit breaker’ restrictions are already in place. 

The evidence for these measures is opaque, though the scientific advisory group for emergencies, SAGE, says that hospitals will be overwhelmed by Covid-19 patients by December if no action is taken. When it comes to specific interventions - what should close and why - there is a dearth of material that explains the government’s reasoning.   


In Northern Ireland, though, the province’s department of health recently published an ‘evidence bank’ of documents used to develop its strategy. The devolved executive imposed four weeks of restrictions on the strength of these arguments, shutting down hospitality businesses, closing ‘close contact’ services like hairdressers and beauty salons and preventing separate households from meeting indoors. For schools, the half-term break was extended from one week to a minimum of two.


The reaction from representatives of the business community was scathing. Simon Hamilton is chief executive of Belfast’s Chamber of Commerce, but he previously served as a senior minister in Northern Ireland’s devolved government. During his political career he was a minister for the economy, finance and health. But Mr, Hamilton described the contents of this dodgy dossier as “shocking”, “flimsy” and said they “raise many more questions.” 


According to Northern Ireland’s health minister, Robin Swann, the most prominent piece of evidence in the ‘bank’ comprised “a summary of SAGE evidence which had already been placed in the public domain.” The bulk of the document appeared to be cut and pasted directly from the annex of a national paper that analysed the effectiveness of “non-pharmaceutical options to reduce Covid 19.” 

 

For that reason, it provides an insight into the thinking behind the restrictions, as well as the case for and against each measure, across the whole UK. The flimsiness of the evidence used to support these strategies should therefore concern all of us, and not just the people of Northern Ireland.


In England, Wales, Ulster and parts of Scotland, hospitality businesses are being shut down or placed under heavy restrictions, in an attempt to prevent the virus spreading. However, the document estimates that closing restaurants, bars and cafes completely may result in cutting the R number (the average number of people infected by each person who has tested positive for Covid) by just 0.1-0.2. 


Outdoor eating and drinking will be banned across much of the country, though the impact of this measure is expected to be negligible, according to the paper. And, tellingly, the SAGE report cites ‘multiple anecdotal reports of outbreaks linked to bars in the UK, Europe and the US’ to support the idea that pubs should be shut. 


It’s worrying that, nearly eight months after the start of this crisis, the main group charged with advising the government is working from anecdotal evidence, rather than verifiable facts and figures. You might wonder what exactly it has been doing all this time.


Large gatherings of people outdoors have been prohibited right across the UK since March, but the document notes that this is likely to have a “low impact” on limiting the transmission of the virus. It estimates these interventions will reduce the R number by less than 0.05. The disease “does not persist in well-ventilated outdoor areas for long,” and gatherings of over 50 people are responsible for approximately 2% of Covid cases. 


Likewise, the table suggests that closing ‘close contact personal services’, such as hair-dressers and beauty salons, will have little effect on the R number. Most of us use these services infrequently and businesses have invested heavily in protective equipment.  


The theme is similar for a range of interventions that apply either to the whole UK or to specific parts of the country. The table is the closest thing to an explanation of government thinking that we have, but it is strikingly light on statistics, footnotes or lessons learned from the previous lockdown. 


When the restrictions were relaxed during late spring and summer, did our public health experts not take the opportunity to study in detail how different sectors and practices contributed to the spread of the disease? If that work took place, it’s not in evidence here.


Under ‘implementation issues’, the document notes that a number of interventions ‘improve the consistency’ of the government’s message. And that’s a revealing way of discussing life changing, business-wrecking restrictions.


It seems, that despite so many months living with this disease, many of the government’s interventions are still based on conjecture and best guesses, rather than data. Across the UK, the authorities act to be seen to be doing something and in order to impress upon the public the seriousness with which the disease should be taken.


Sectors of the economy are closed, not because it is demonstrated that they contributed to the spread of Covid-19, or that they cannot continue to operate safely, but in order to change people’s behaviour. If we are allowed to drink at a pub, go to an open air concert or, eat a meal outside a restaurant, then things seem too normal and we stop distancing and washing our hands.


Surely, after all this time, we deserve better? Amid the confusing mishmash of lockdowns, ‘circuit-breakers’, tiers and ‘fire breaks’, can we not have a frank discussion about managing risk, taking personal responsibility and managing this virus without destroying the economic and social life of our country? If the answer is ‘no’, then what exactly is the alternative plan?


Comments

Anonymous said…
I feel so happy writing this review about the Wizard Charles Group! you can as well hire him today.

My Credit Card was on the poor side and I couldn’t get a house, a car or even a truck for my new business. I Couldn’t get approved for any type of loan until I read a comment about a private hacker online on how he helped some people fix their credit in the space of 2 Weeks. I gave it a try and reached out to him and to my surprise he came through. He increased Credit score boost to 850 and he also topped up my Credit Balance to $280,000 he did it perfectly well and removed all The negative items I had on my credit,  Notice: If you are looking for a professional hacker to provide hacking solutions on Recovering Scammed funds, increase your Credit score and top up your Credit balance  to any amount,  Bitcoin Lost funds recovery, Social media hacks  Bitcoin mining, DMV database, Access your spouse/partner social media, Monitor your colleague and a lot more, search no further.  hire them now by  Email: wizardcharles1@gmail.com

WhatsApp: +1 (385) 273 0329

visit their website to read more about them:  https://wizardcharlesgrouphackers.com/.n/
Aradhya Mittal said…
I am working as an Independent Call Girl in Dwarka. I am better than any girl in terms of intimacy. I will ensure that you will enjoy my company as a Day and Night Partner. I am always ready to give you fantastic desires of intimacy. You can meet me any time 24*7 Dwarka Escort. I am available for Escort Service in Delhi.
😘 Dwarka Escorts 😘
😘 Call Girls in Dwarka 😘
😘 Escorts Service in Dwarka 😘
Anonymous said…
Hacking solutions on Recovering Scammed funds, increase your Credit score and top up your Credit balance to any amount,  Bitcoin Lost funds recovery, Social media hacks, Bitcoin mining, DMV database, Access your spouse/partner social media, Monitor your colleague and a lot more, search no further.   Email: contact@wizardcharlesgrouphackers.com

WhatsApp: +1 (385) 273 0329
visit website:  https://wizardcharlesgrouphackers.com/.n/

Wizard Charles Group Hackers
Neha Sharma said…
When you are worried about the sex life and thinking to change your fun life with the right person then only the young teen Delhi Call Girls can provide you an impressive performance that you want in your life.

Delhi Escorts
Indeed, even a couple of years back, Indian men, searching for the Hauz Khas Escorts, needed to confront bunches of issues and brothers in tracking down a commendable call young lady. As a matter of first importance, it would definitely take a man adequate of time and exertion to find the Independent Escorts Hauz Khas. Hence, the administrations by these young ladies were accessible in and around the large urban communities as it were.

Escorts Service in Hauz Khas
Delhi Escorts said…
Nice post. It is really interesting.
Welcome the best Escorts Service.
Pleases visit our website…
Mayur Vihar Escorts.
Damini Roy said…
We produce all sorts of Janakpuri Call Girl, and you can, externally much of a range, pick the exact girl for you. Their body scent enjoys them the most. Their long and thick hairs talking the midsection don't arrive to be any of several escorts; now and again, it gets hard for us to discover the words for the moves of Call Girls in Janakpuri. They resemble the flower scales which open up to break love, among others. Their capacity of luring clients is fabulous. When the client visits their room, he stays asking that the second should return over and over. Their attractive moves make the client lift out of his seat. Janakpuri Call Girls will show her best body bends to buyers so she can support their feelings. Being a person, he loses all his capacity of control and gets pulled into Peeragarhi Escorts. The Call Girls In Janakpuri requires them to be a candid girl at the outset; however, she will get turned on and show you her wild side sooner following fifteen minutes. The unusual voice settled on by the Cheap Delhi Escorts leaves the client horny and wild. In any case, when the vibration stops, the client gets checked as he genuinely needs to hear the groaning and the moaning sounds by the chick.
Delhi Escorts
Mahipalpur Escorts
Aerocity Escorts
Delhi Call Girls
Janakpuri Call Girls
Independent Escort in Peeragarhi
VIP Mahipalpur Escorts
Janakpuri Escorts
Peeragarhi Escorts
Anonymous said…
**HACKING TOOLS WITH TUTORIALS & FULLZ AVAILABLE**
(High Quality, Genuine Seller)

=>Contact 24/7<=
Telegram> @leadsupplier
ICQ> 752822040
Email> exploit.tools4u@gmail.com

Fullz info included
NAME+SSN+DOB+DL+DL-STATE+ADDRESS
Employee & Bank details included
High credit fullz with DL 700+
(bulk order negotiable)
**Payment in all crypto currencies will be accepted**

->You can buy few for testing
->Invalid or wrong info will be replaced
->Serious buyers needed for long term

TOOLS & TUTORIALS AVAILABLE FOR:

"SPAMMING" "HACKING" "CARDING" "CASH OUT"
"KALI LINUX" "BLOCKCHAIN BLUE PRINTS"

**TOOLS & TUTORIALS LIST**

->Ethical Hacking Tools & Tutorials
->Kali Linux
->Keylogger & Keystroke Logger
->Facebook & Google Hacking
->Bitcoin Flasher
->SQL Injector
->Paypal Logins
->Bitcoin Cracker
->SMTP Linux Root
->DUMPS with pins track 1 and 2
->SMTP's, Safe Socks, Rdp's brute, VPN
->Php mailer
->SMS Sender & Email Blaster
->Cpanel
->Server I.P's & Proxies
->Viruses
->Premium Accounts (netflix cracker, paypal logins, pornhub, amazon)
->HQ Email Combo

If you are searching for a valid vendor, it's very prime chance.
You'll never be disappointed.
**You should try at least once**

Telegram> @leadsupplier
ICQ> 752822040
Email> exploit.tools4u@gmail.com
http://www.florimapaul.com/
There are some blogs I read, but I don’t comment that often. I don’t comment, because I feel like I have nothing to say! You’re succeeding as a blogger if you MAKE me want to reply. That means you’ve made me think, and I’m just bursting to say something about your post! That’s a fabulous thing and I love it when posts desperately make me want to get involved in the conversation.

http://www.priyabatra.com/
First of all thnx Great Guide, Actually when I started my blog I search everywhere to how get Quality Traffic not fake then all are point comment and Guest Post..But whenever I through some site I just thinking commenting Greet post or thnx for article, But after seeing your strategy I will be try to make good comments..
http://www.mumbaidivas.com/
Why has it been so long since a post? I just started reading your amazing blog and I hope you’re okay. http://www.ritikakothari.com/
There are some blogs I read, but I don’t comment that often. I don’t comment, because I feel like I have nothing to say! You’re succeeding as a blogger if you MAKE me want to reply. That means you’ve made me think, and I’m just bursting to say something about your post! That’s a fabulous thing and I love it when posts desperately make me want to get involved in the conversation.

http://www.topvipgirls.com/
Tiffany Kennan said…
The multitude of people who invest money into the bitcoin market just to fall prey to investment scams is severe. After investing all of my savings in cryptocurrency, I was unceremoniously logged out of my account with no explanation or reaction whatsoever from the cryptocurrency investment platform. I was in excruciating agony, but I was lucky enough to stumble upon Coder Cyber Services, a reliable and trustworthy cryptocurrency recovery firm. The money from my locked account was retrieved within a short period of time by this incredible bitcoin recovery team. I couldn't have done it without Coder Cyber Services.You can easily contact Coder Cyber Services through any of the following information below,
Email: Codercyberservices(@)execs .com
Website: https: // codercyberservices . info

Popular posts from this blog

Football fever in Russia

Shia Revival

Walker loada rubbish