Three Thousand Versts of Loneliness

The UUP last generated energy and excitement when it formed an electoral pact with the Conservatives. Can its new leader find another 'big idea' to inspire an electoral revival, or is the party slowly dying?   A couple of weekends ago, the UUP held its annual conference . For a party that now struggles to command media attention, it was a particularly important event, because the BBC covered its leader’s speech live and aired a party political broadcast the previous evening. It's just six months since Robin Swann took over from Mike Nesbitt and then immediately faced a general election, which saw the UUP lose its two Westminster seats. At the conference in Armagh, the Ulster Unionists’ new leader had an opportunity to explain his brand of unionism and m ost of the coverage focussed on two policies and two buzzwords contained in Mr Swann’s speech . The UUP opposed the idea that an Irish Language Act is needed in Northern Ireland and it supported changing the w...

Something of a postscript to yesterday’s piece on the UUP / Tory connection.  The relationship looks even more uncertain this morning, after the Conservative party committed to “an ongoing programme of campaigning and development” in Northern Ireland. In a press release the party’s UK joint chair, Baroness Warsi, announced that the Tories will soon open a campaign headquarters in Bangor.  A full-time member of staff will be recruited to liaise with one of the Conservatives’ “most senior campaign directors”. In addition, the Tories’ Northern Ireland chairman, Irwin Armstrong, who tendered his resignation  in December, is back.  After Tom Elliott and Andrew Feldman’s infamous meeting, he felt that his position was untenable.   Conservative central office looked set to marginalise the local membership, preferring to lend its electoral ‘franchise‘ to the UUP. Armstrong now believes that his concerns have been addressed: Today’s announcement from our joint C...

This morning’s Belfast Telegraph confirms that the government will not change the mechanism for selecting the First and Deputy First Ministers.  Yesterday Owen Paterson told the Assembly and Executive Review Committee that he won’t amend the 2006 St Andrews Act by Order-in-Council. That’s another bitter blow for Tom Elliott, who ran his UUP leadership campaign on the premise that he could persuade the government to do just that.  No doubt the Conservatives expressed sympathy for the Ulster Unionist position that the Belfast Agreement was unjustifiably tampered with at St Andrews. It was already clear that the game was up last week though.  The News Letter was informed by a  third party  that Mr Elliott stormed out of a meeting with Paterson over the issue.  The report prompted O’Neill to ask whether the latest UUP - Conservative deal was already unravelling . It’s an interesting question.  The two ‘partners’ are remarkably shy about outlining th...

O'Neill from Unionist Lite and Dilettante , this morning go public with an email addressed to the Secretary of State, Owen Paterson.  The text is as follows: Dear Mr. Paterson, We are writing to you concerning the position of the Conservative Party vis-à-vis its activity in Northern Ireland. As Conservative and Unionist bloggers we have been firm supporters of Mr. Cameron’s policy of political engagement in the province, and we hope to be able to continue to facilitate in our small way the efforts of the party there. In recent weeks there has been some confusion about the future of the party in Northern Ireland, and if you were able to clarify that position for us, we would then be able to pass it to our readership. Kind Regards, Dilettante, oneill Paterson has been notably silent on the shape of the Conservative party's continuing relationship with the UUP and how it can lead to meaningful involvement in UK politics.  Exactly how do Paterson and Cameron intend to extend ...

Just to point you in the direction of a blogpost I've contributed at Conservative Home .  I argue that the Tories' latest deal with the UUP, which involves not contesting Stormont seats in May, is a backwards step in terms of the party's commitment to bring normal politics to Northern Ireland.  If you feel moved to leave any feedback there's a comment zone beneath the post at Con Home.

I don’t suppose that Ian Parsley’s resignation from the Conservative party can be regarded as much of a shock.  The North Down UCUNF candidate’s frustrations and the local Tories’ internal discussions were played out daily on his blog. It made for an entertaining read, but it was an odd way of doing party politics.  There was always a suspicion that once Parsley’s work at the Campaign for Social Justice was at an end, he would decide to end his connection with the Conservatives too.   Many of the complaints Ian aired on his blog were perfectly reasonable.  Without doubt the UUP election link up was a botched job.  It’s also true that the post UCUNF fall-out has taken a ridiculously long time to sift through.  Any push to stand Conservative candidates at next year’s Assembly election will be compromised by a short run up to the campaign (in contrast the Tories‘ general election allies have finalised their candidate list). Still, it is one thing for in...

The Secretary of State is due to give a lecture at Policy Exchange tonight, in memory of the late Tory peer Leonard Steinberg, who founded the Northern Ireland Friends of Israel group. As a lifelong Ulster Unionist and a Conservative, Steinberg’s political commitments spanned two parties currently reassessing their relationship and Paterson will use his address to re-emphasise the Tories’ determination to bring national politics to Northern Ireland.   “Our opponents have made much of the fact that we didn’t win any seats in May.  In fact we achieved over 100,000 votes for national politics and we came very close in three constituencies.  For every five votes we secured we won no seats, while for every seven votes the DUP secured they won 8 seats. Although I remain an unapologetic supporter of the first-past-the-post system it does sometimes throw up tough results.But despite the General Election not going quite as well as we would have hoped in Northern Ireland, David ...

In 2008, when the UUP and the Conservatives declared their intention to pursue pan-UK unionism, alongside  other commentators , I was justifiably delighted.  Not, as some people were quick to suppose, for petty party political reasons, or out of spite. It did genuinely appear possible that a positive, outward looking connection to national politics could transform unionism in Northern Ireland, for the twenty first century. That optimism has taken a battering over the past two years.  The disappointment built gradually, until, finally, UCUNF became the chief fatality of a spectacular electoral car crash.  Various groups are now picking through the wreckage to see whether anything is salvageable. The Conservatives are considering whether they have a future in Northern Ireland politics, Tom Elliott has been asked to prepare a paper detailing his suggestions for the two parties’ relationship and an enigmatic ‘2010 Group’ has emerged within the UUP, pushing a pan-UK...

I'll add a link to the full article if and when it eventually appears on the Belfast Telegraph website, but yesterday I evaluated Tom Elliott's chances of steadying the 'good ship UUP', in the newspaper. When UUP members elected a new party leader at Belfast’s Waterfront Hall last week, they chose time-honoured Ulster values over the pluralist sensibilities and media savvy of modern politics.  Tom Elliott may be younger than his opponent Basil McCrea, but the delegates, overwhelmingly elderly and male, saw a man in their own image nonetheless.  Elliott is a genial Fermanagh farmer of Orange stock, who represents a return to some old fashioned certainties for the UUP.  All the airy talk of normalising politics and building pan-UK unionism, which preceded the last election, is now at an end.  UCUNF, the new leader says, is dead, deceased, an ex electoral pact.   Rather than develop a ‘big idea’ to replace it, Elliott intends first to shore up the UUP’s existing ...

Ian Parsley's blog  carries an account of the Northern Ireland Conservatives AGM, which took place today.  The most noteworthy business saw Irwin Armstrong, UCUNF's North Antrim Westminster candidate, elected as area chairman.  I believe the other contenders were Terry Dick (from the East Belfast association) and Parsley himself. Armstrong conducted a positive and spirited campaign during the general election and, had a misleading Belfast Telegraph poll not erroneously suggested that Jim Allister was a serious contender to nick the seat, he could easily have beaten the TUV man to second place.  He will bring a businessman's eye, and experience in marketing, to the local Tories. It will be interesting to see whether his appointment has an impact on the Ulster Unionist connection.  Parsley hints, in his piece, that he cannot see the value in Northern Ireland Conservatives standing against UUP candidates in the Assembly election.  That is a debate which w...

Mr Ulster has responded to my Belfast Telegraph piece on the NI Conservatives.  He argues that the group cannot ignore identity politics.  The thrust of the piece seems to be that it is not possible to be 'pro-Union' without engaging, to some degree, in communal politics.  He might find much to agree with over at Seymour Major's new blog . Meanwhile O'Neill argues that the viewpoint of local Tories may be relatively academic.  Probably rightly, he contends that, should CCHQ demand that the UUP link be maintained and should Ulster Unionists remain amenable 'the views of the NI Conservatives on the matter will be of little consequence'. The looming 2011 Assembly elections will play a role in this drama.  Clearly the Tories in North Down feel that Ian Parsley could claim a seat.  Retaining some connection with the UUP would leave them best placed to achieve this. On the other hand, the ambitious young candidates who make up the Ulster Unionists' most ...

In today's Belfast Telegraph I ask where the other partners in UCUNF, the Northern Ireland Conservative party, will decide to go now.  In particular I look at two options which have been mooted. Seymour Major, a prolific Tory party blogger, has started a campaign for a separate organisation with a new name and would seek to align with the Conservatives at Westminster, but remain agnostic on the Union. The contention is that unionism has become toxic in Northern Ireland and the Tories at national level are indelibly linked to it. This breed of local Conservative doesn't just want to keep the UUP at arm's length, they feel the same about David Cameron. Their difficulty is that any new party would start with an even smaller base than the Northern Ireland Tories. In a devolved UK, constitutional issues are part of everyday debate and, by ducking the border issue entirely, a neutral centre-right group here could not offer either equal citizenship or normal politics. But ther...

This article appeared first at Forth Magazine . THE BRITISH general election has precipitated a period of very public soul-searching by the main unionist parties. The DUP leader, Peter Robinson, provided one of the election’s most notable scalps, losing his East Belfast seat to Alliance’s Naomi Long, and the Ulster Unionists’ link up with the Conservatives suffered electoral wipe-out, failing to return a single MP.  As the two parties pour over the tactical failings of their campaigns, and assess the respective positions of their leaders, they face a more profound dilemma. The overall proportion of the vote claimed by unionism was well down.  None of the unionist options available to the electorate captured its imagination. Anti-agreement unionism, in the form of Jim Allister’s TUV, performed worst of all. Its leader, the only candidate from the party to claim a substantial number of votes, was still trounced by Ian Paisley junior in North Antrim.  Had not a wildly ...

I am more than a little confused by the signals which emerged from yesterday’s UUP Executive meeting. Sir Reg Empey is to stay, for the time being, and stand down during the autumn.  In the mean time the party promises a ‘forensic examination’ of what went wrong in its latest campaign and early decisions on a slate of candidates for next year’s Assembly elections. So Ulster Unionists intend, first to ink in candidates to stand for Stormont and then decide on a change of direction.  In that order. Now, clearly the UUP has taken the Westminster selection debacle to heart, but might the party’s future direction and new leader not determine who it wants to put up for election?  After all, there are at least three fairly different routes the Ulster Unionists might take. Reportedly Sir Reg could have claimed the backing of a substantial number of delegates yesterday had he chosen to remain at the helm.  He draws continued support particularly from those who are co...

The Belfast Telegraph's website doesn't seem to feature the article either, but in the print edition of yesterday's paper I argued against so-called 'unionist unity'. In the process I reviewed what went wrong for the Conservatives and Unionists (dodgy polls, Paxman interviews and the UUP's Assembly party aside). I will link to the full article if and when it becomes available, but, meanwhile, this extract sums up the argument: There is certainly a need for the UUP to conduct a post mortem after the Conservatives and Unionists electoral wipe-out, but there is real danger that the party will focus on all the wrong lessons. The Tory link-up had its first electoral outing in Europe, but it was built for Westminster. Its failure to claim any seats at the general election is a devastating blow, but it cannot be ascribed to a thirst for ‘unionist unity’. In fact the unity talks which leading Ulster Unionists conducted at Hatfield House marked the beginning of the D...

This is a guest post from Phil Larkin.  Thanks Phil!  It really is an impressive analysis. Introduction Having now had the weekend to digest the election results from Northern Ireland, I feel better able to make a number of comments and conclusions. Chekov and others may very well disagree with these, but, in summary, I believe that there are more reasons to be cheerful in the aftermath of the election than to be despondent, if, and only if, courage is shown by moderate unionists in these coming months. As someone from a ‘nationalist’ background, who currently lives and works in the south of England, and as someone who is a Labour voter, I approach the subject of unionism and unionist politics with a measure of caution. I have no wish to sound patronizing or lay claim to knowledge in an area where my understanding is limited. Nevertheless, as someone who is not unsympathetic to their position, and who cares about the shared future and prosperity of my own people of Northe...