May's Brexit missed opportunity with Russia

When Theresa May’s speechwriters pondered this year’s keynote address to the Lord Mayor’s Banquet, they couldn’t have been short of potential material.

Businesses and their representative organisations daily pour over every utterance from the Prime Minister and her colleagues, in an attempt to decode how the Brexit negotiations might progress. The Conservative government appears to be riven with infighting and, if it falls, Labour and Jeremy Corbyn threaten to upend British society and the existing economic order. The chancellor continues to wrestle with the insoluble algebra of keeping unemployment low and cutting the deficit, while boosting productivity and raising wages.  

That’s probably why Mrs May’s speech largely avoided each of these big issues and instead reached for a series of well worn accusations, directed against Russia. It was the usual thing; espionage, destabilising eastern European states, weaponising information. “I have a very simple message for Russia”, the Prime Minister warned, “we know what you are doing and you will not succeed”.

Of course, it was clear what Theresa May was doing as well. Rather than address the difficulties and controversies facing her government, she decided to invoke and exaggerate a perceived external threat.

The evidence that Russia has meddled to any effect in western elections is strikingly flimsy and elusive. There’s always a point at which the supposed dossiers and reports require a leap of faith. Just trust us, we’re the experts and we know what we’re talking about.

The supposed intelligence often cites mischievous, but relatively open, coverage carried by Sputnik or RT. Yes, we know that the Kremlin pays for these outlets and that their editorial line is essentially hostile to the western establishment, but their influence is marginal and the US and the UK also subsidise journalism that is hostile to Russia.

As for destabilising neighbouring states, Putin certainly acted opportunistically when his government annexed Crimea, but the subtleties of that situation and the subsequent war in eastern Ukraine are airbrushed by the British government and media.

Mrs May spoke again about ‘hostile’ Russia as she travelled to the Eastern Partnership summit between the EU and some of its neighbours from the former Soviet bloc. Presumably she hopes to persuade Brussels that Britain must remain central to securing Europe’s safety, after it leaves the European Union.

The UK could use Brexit as an opportunity to pursue a genuinely independent foreign policy guided by its own interests and by the FCO’s diplomatic expertise. It could try to mend its frayed relationships with Moscow, build economic ties and, in time, exert a constructive influence on Russian governance.   

Instead, the Prime Minister looks like she wants to use Russia to scare people, distract from Brexit and posture to the EU 27. How disappointing and what a missed opportunity.