Three Thousand Versts of Loneliness

Ulster will fight - but Ulster will (probably) lose

2012-01-19T19:32:00.001Z

A guest post by itwassammymcnallywhatdoneit, who looks forward to Ulster Rugby's weekend clash with Clermont.

The Heineken Cup. If you’re Irish and a rugby fan - don’t you just love it?

Unlike the 6N where Ireland are generally less than the sum of their provincial parts with the Heineken Cup the provincial parts usually suggest a much better performing Irish team than we generally get to see. This year we have the full compliment of 4 provinces with Connacht qualifying for the first time.

Last week with Leinster and Munster both qualifying for the quarters finals it was Irish success as usual. But it was Ulster who were the real Irish heroes smashing Leicester 41-7 in what had been billed by most pundits as the tie of the round and for all the talk of Ulster’s foreign (South African) contingent Leicester had 10 overseas players in their squad and Ulster had only 5. Before the match those same pundits gave Ulster the edge – but ruled out a repeat drubbing for Leicester by anything like the margin of 33 points which was the margin of their defeat when they last visited Ravenhill in the Heineken cup. Well they were right it wasn’t a margin of 33 it was 34. Quite incredible.

So now to the final weekend of the pool stages of the competition. Having just demolished the English powerhouses of European rugby in the proverbial pool of death Ulster are now required to overcome Clermont in Parc des Sports Marcel Michelin on Saturday at 15.40 to avoid elimination in what is again the outstanding Heineken Cup match of the weekend. In fact Ulster can go through as pool winners with a defeat, provided is it by less than 5 points and they score the same number of tries as Clermont. Ulster can also progress as one of the two best pool runners-up even if they lose, but that is dependent on an unlikely slip up by one of Toulouse, Harlequins, Edinburgh or Cardiff.

In the handicap betting the bookies (Paddy Power) are giving Ulster a 12 point head start. For Ulster to win, even for this outstanding Ulster team to win, it is probably asking too much. Quite how Clermont have not won the Heineken Cup by now is a bit of a mystery - partially explained by the fact that as relative Johnny-come-latelies to the competition they initially suffered from poor seedings and then repeatedly found themselves in really difficult groups.

If Ulster fans want to lessen the pain of (probable) defeat they could do worse than have a punt on Clermont to win the competition at 7/1 (William Hill) which looks like really generous odds for a team packed with world class talent, including Rougerie, Parra, Vermuelen, Malzieu, Bonnaire, Sivivatu. Leinster at 15/8(William Hill) are the current favourites.

If Ulster can somehow win in Clermont then there will be no doubt that they win can the competition (for the 2^nd time) and their odds will collapse from their current 50/1(William Hill).

But sadly I just can’t see it as Clermont have not lost at home in any competition since November 2009.

C’mon Ulster.

The State Duma elections and their aftermath

2011-12-22T18:00:00.000Z

A belated word on the State Duma elections in Russia and theiraftermath. United Russia suffered a strikingdecline in support, managing 49.4% of the vote and scraping an outrightmajority, though the party lost the constitutional majority of 2/3rds which itpreviously enjoyed.

The results have attracted a great deal of attention and commentaryin the western media for two reasons. Firstly, the disappointing outcome for United Russia has beeninterpreted as a sign of growing disillusionment with Prime Minister VladimirPutin and his successor as President, Dmitry Medvedev.

That’s not an unfair thesis. Putin has acknowledged himself that some voters have taken the opportunityto give their country’s rulers a bloody nose at the polls. He ascribes this phenomenon to difficultfinancial circumstances, but there’s also more than likely a growing sense of wearinessand resentment at an elite which has dominated politics for 11 years.

It’s still almost inconceivable that Putin could lose thepresidential election which will take place in May and, with two six year termspossible, he may remain Russia’s figurehead until 2024. Almost any politician, however popular, willexperience a degree of public fatigue if they stay at the top level of politicsfor so long. In the UK the Conservativessuffered it under Thatcher. The samething happened to New Labour under Tony Blair. People get bored.

Britain, though, is a parliamentary democracy, while Russiais a Presidential Republic. However closelyassociated United Russia is with the Kremlin, they are not one and the same. Power is concentrated in an ‘administrativeregime’, rather than the party or parliament.

The wild caricature that frequently appears in editorials innewspapers like The Times or The Daily Telegraph is not remotely accurate. Russia is not a neo-Stalinist one party state. United Russia has never been allowed tomonopolise power completely and there has always remained, quite deliberately,a degree of distance between the ‘regime’ and the ‘ruling party’.

There is little doubt that Putin isn’t as popular as he oncewas. That doesn’t mean that his personalpopularity doesn’t far outstrip the collective popularity of United Russia andit doesn’t mean that he can only be re-elected as President if the will ofvoters is misrepresented by a fabricated election result.

The other aspects of the Duma contest which commanded columninches are the allegations of wide-spread ballot rigging and the subsequentstreet protests which took place in Moscow and other Russian cities.

There little doubt that irregularities didtake place and the Kremlin’s own probe uncovered more than 2,000violations. That’s not to say, though,that the election’s outcome was substantively distorted.

At Sublime Oblivion Anatoly Karlin provides polling datafrom all the major companies in Russia. Thefinal result for United Russia was forecast remarkably accurately by these figuresand the party’s percentage of the vote was actually at the lower end of what waspredicted. Exit poll data was a littlemore variable.

Regional breakdownscertainly showed discrepancies in a number of regions (the Caucasus resultsrarely look credible), but there is nothing to suggest widespread orcentralised fraud.

United Russia certainly had a bruising election, VladimirPutin will certainly have a challenge to maintain his popularity ahead of the presidentialpoll and many Russians are certainly very cross at the corrupt fashion in whichthe election was administered. The swellof dissent, though, hasn’t led to suppression or a crack-down. Indeed, quite the reverse.

There’s every indication that the new Duma will prove anextremely rambunctious forum for political debate. And the outgoing president has just proposedcomprehensive reforms to revitalise pluralism in Russia.

Of course many commentators will react cynically to theseliberal overtures. But neither Medvedevnor Putin has ever shown themselves to be impervious or unresponsive to publicopinion.

And then there’s the continuing lack of a credible opposition. The Communist Party remains the secondbiggest bloc in the Duma. For all the opprobriumheaped on Vladimir Putin by certain newspapers and politicians in the UK, who seriouslycontends that President Zyuganov would be a positive development for Russians?

Or how about a stage nationalist demagogue like Zhirinovsky? Eduard Limonov, restyled as an oppositionleader, after his ‘red-brown’ fusion of Nazism, Bolshevism and Dada, the NationalBolsheviks?

The poster boy of the protests, Alexei Navalny, who coinedthe nickname ‘party of swindlers and thieves’ for United Russia, is another unabashednationalist. Perhaps Mikhail Prokhorov,the right leaning businessman who briefly led Right Cause, is the leastalarming rival to Putin who has emerged so far.

At the moment the best outcome for the protestorsin Russia may not be an immediate change at the top, but rather an improvedsystem, which allows a credible alternative to emerge through time and offersreforms which make future elections work better.

Positive case for Britishness as well as the Union

2011-11-22T18:30:00.000Z

You could be forgiven for missing the poll on Britishnesscontained in this month’s Prospect Magazine. It’s buried in a series of articles about the UK’s involvement in theEuropean Union.

Yougov found that people in England who identify primarilyas British are less likely to want to leave the EU, while people who describethemselves first as English are much more likely to want immediatewithdrawal.

It’s hardly a startling revelation that nationalism oftencoincides with euroscepticism. Moreeye-catching is the break-down in the number of people who identify first asBritish / English. This survey suggeststhat over 60% of people in England view themselves primarily as English ratherthan British. That compares to just over40%, as recently as 2008.

Again, you might say it’s hardly surprising in apost-devolution UK, with nationalist politics influential in Cardiff anddominating governments in Edinburgh and Belfast, that Britishness is beingeroded. The extent of that decline,though, should be a major cause for worry.

Arthur Aughey recently wrote that English nationalism is, asyet, still a mood rather than a movement, but the poll seems to confirm thatthe mood is being nurtured by an aggressive assertion of Scots’ nationalismnorth of the border.

It would be wrong to infer that there is not still a majordisconnect between Scottish nationalists’ constitutional aspirations and thoseof the bulk of Scottish people. The SNPhas acquired a reputation for delivering competent government, which hasbrought electoral success. That is itsmandate, but it doesn’t stop Salmond et al from pursuing another agenda.

The forbearance of English public opinion is generally quiteremarkable, but constant attrition from Holyrood can’t help but affectattitudes south of the border. And thesame process is taking place to a lesser extent between London and Belfast,with the Stormont executive dominated by Irish Nats and Ulster Nats.

None of this is fatal for the Union, of course. The British identity can comfortably existalongside its component identities. Norcan it necessarily be assumed that the figures can be explained simply as anexpression of English resentment at the lack of collegiate spirit from othercorners of the Union. The financialcrisis has thrown at least one more element into the mix.

Thefact remains, though, that English support for the Union can’t be taken forgranted. There’s a need to make apositive case not only for the United Kingdom, but also for a sense ofBritishness itself. The identity whichexplains the interlocking history of these islands, the political institutionswhich define our citizenship and the cultural similarities which we share.

Nationalism hindering opposition in Belarus

2011-11-16T18:00:00.000Z

The World Affairs Journal has published a nicely written article by James Kirchick, called ‘The Land of No Applause’. It’s a sprawling account of modern Belarusand well worth reading.

The author quotes some startling statistics which suggestthat popular disillusion with President Lukashenko is spreading and they leadhim to the obvious question – why hasn’t a credible opposition emerged inBelarus?

It’s a little disappointing, but at this point Kirchick optsfor a traditional answer. He argues thata viable challenge to the President has not developed because Lukashenko has soeffectively suppressed Belarusian national identity. While that is a tidy enough explanation, I suspect it reflects only one aspect of a more complexsituation.

The President took power in 1994, at a time when thepolitics of nationality were to the fore in Eastern Europe. He judged that there was no similar appetite fora nationalist rewrite of identity in Belarus and, it must be said, he appears to have judged correctly.

Conversely the most prominent forms of Belarusian opposition were oftenlinked to hostility toward the Russian language, an equivocal attitude towardSoviet achievements in World War 2 and efforts to cut all links with Moscow.

To western eyes Lukashenko has constructed a rather strangehybrid. Belarus is an independent statewhich is also an inseparable part of a larger cultural space shared withRussia. To Belarusian eyes, though, it’srather neatly reflects the country’s post-Soviet identity.

Of course that isn’t to excuse the basket-case economy, thesuppression of pluralism or the eccentric demagoguery. But it does partly explain why oppositionmovements haven’t become credible and it suggests that nationalist fantasies arehelping to keep Lukashenko in power.

The article mentions a number of enemies of the President’s regimewho are almost as scathing about the so-called opposition. That tells a tale and it would have been aninteresting angle to investigate further.

Guest post: Germany resists British calls for greater European integration.

2011-11-09T17:30:00.000Z

The following is a guest post from itwassammymcnallywhatdoneit. I should point out that all views expressed in guest posts are solely the opinions of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of Three Thousand Versts.

As economic crises rage across the Eurozone, it is still not clear whether we are witnessing the (relative) decline of Western Capitalism and the passing of the prosperity baton to the East (as the Olympic baton goes in the opposite direction) or just the latest Western adjustment to the fallout from the financial crisis.

The Chinese, sitting pretty on trillions of dollars in foreign reserves responded to being tapped up by an indebted Eurozone by suggesting that "European labour laws induce sloth, indolence rather than hard work." and told the Europeans to get their act together before looking for their help. (The US of A, having recently had its credit rating downgraded was not invited to provide assistance, presumably to spare their blushes.)

Last week, the crisis in Europe centred on the small Mediterranean country of Greece, perhaps but the Aperitif to a main course of Italy and Spain (with Ireland and Portugal as side dishes) for the perfidious and greedy Markets seeking to devour any country showing economic weakness.

The Greek political class, facing warnings of expulsion from the Eurozone and even from the EU itself, withdrew the 'threat' of consultation with the Greek people via a referendum and promised to toe the austerity line.

In Britain, strangely, there was little support for the Greek referendum position from the British Prime Minister, who, although using the promise of a referendum on Europe to get himself elected leader of the Tory party, was telling the Greeks to hurry up and sign up to the Euro austerity deal.

David Cameron though, finds himself in the very awkward position of needing to throw a few anti-EU bones to his anti-EU backbenchers to chew on in order to stave off further parliamentary rebellions, whilst trying to avoid a (further) dressing down from European colleagues for daring to talk down Europe at such a sensitive time.

The British Chancellor of the Exchequer, Mr George Osborne has been eagerly repeating the (new?) Tory party line that greater European integration is required in Eurozone countries in order for the Euro to work - you simply cannot, so the argument goes, have such divergent economies as Greece and Germany sharing the same currency and with the same interest rates-unless there is central control of economic policy. Britain, Osborne insists, cannot and will not, bail out the failed currency. The European central bank, must be the lender of last resort for the Euro and stump up the cash to solve the Euro debt crisis.

Except, the European Central Bank does not seem inclined to do such a thing and instead, much to British annoyance, the supplier of cash to Euro countries in these crises, may well be the IMF - part funded by Britain. Ed Balls, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, opportunistically sniffing Mr Cameron's political blood has publically demanded that no British cash arrives in Europe even under the IMF flag of convenience.

So why does the European Central Bank seem reluctant to be the lender of last resort? Well if the BBC political correspondents are to believed it all boils down to one word 'Weimar' - that tragic period in German history when their severe economic difficulties were dealt with by quantitative easing (a practice now very worryingly popular in non-Euro and heavily indebted Britain).

Perhaps a couple of hours of heavy output from the Frankfurt printing presses and there would be enough cash to lend to Greece and Italy?

As the name suggests the European Central Bank- is a European institution - which might lead some to believe it should be run for the benefit of Europe as a whole but it rather looks to others, to perhaps being run by, and for the benefit of, only one country.

Germany, believed by many to be a 'good' European and a central part of project Euro, a project allegedly set to undermine the Nation states of Europe, is now perhaps showing her true (National) colours.

... surely all that frightful fretting by Eurosceptics over the threat of a European super state hasn't been for nothing?

Dowie for manager!

2011-11-04T18:00:00.000Z

I was unsure of who I wanted to succeed Nigel Worthington as Northern Ireland manager, but my mind's now made up. I give you Mr Iain Dowie esq. and his mission statement.

"we need to get some passion back. We can't have players not turning up, then playing for their clubs at the weekend, and we have got to stop the trend of losing so many players to the Republic. If we can do that, anything is possible, as Billy Bingham showed in the 80s. We haven’t been to a major tournament since, and that is something that needs putting right. It's a tough group we are in for the next World Cup, but we really should be able to compete with teams like Israel. We will, if we can get back to making Windsor Park a difficult place to come to on a wet and windy night. That has to be the aim, and it is a realistic one."

Well said Mr Dowie Sir! There's been a lot of technocratic talk about the respective merits of various candidates' CVs. Let's cut through the nonsense though, splitting hairs about achievements in the lower leagues in neither here nor there. Lawrie McMenemy had the most impressive CV of recent Northern Ireland managers, and he was the worst manager. Arguably his namesake Sanchez had the least striking club record.

Dowie understands the Northern Ireland set-up and he understands the fanbase. He can put fire into the the players' bellies, get the stands roaring again and, most importantly, put out a team charged with harrying, pressing and disrupting superior opposition. That's the only way we can compete and challenge for qualification.

The only thing the IFA need look at in its recruitment process is the above quote. It is the most inspiring, no nonsense statement any candidate has made to date. And the man has a record in management to compare with the rest. Offer him a contract right now.

P.S. I'm fully aware that my photoshop skills are appalling.

Hard-line leaders driving trades union members toward strikes

2011-11-04T09:00:00.000Z

Following Unison’s strike last month, Nipsa, whichrepresents 45,000 workers across the public sector, is urging its membership tovote ‘yes’ in a ballot, aimed at bringing about industrial action.

Not only will any further stoppages bringwidespread misery, but the vast majority of union members don’t want tostrike. Unison’s walkout was carried on a ballot of just 18% of itsmembership.

That’s hardly surprising. Most employees join a union, simply expectingit to help them if they encounter a problem in the work place, while their leadersare sometimes driven by hard-line politics.

Where the latest batch of strikes is concerned,unions readily admit that they don’t know the details of public sector joblosses which they say are in the pipeline. Some of those potentialredundancies could yet be avoided with a little flexibility where it comes topay and conditions. However their stock response is nothing to do withprotecting jobs. They just repeat, “you can’t cut your way out of arecession”.

That’s nothing to do with pay, or conditions, oreven possible lay-offs; it’s an abstract political theory. And it’sextremely foolhardy to persuade people to risk their livelihoods on the basisof an economic doctrine, especially when it’s based on a flawed understandingof our current financial circumstances.

What the unions don’t seem to grasp, as they callfor more public spending, is that the mess which the current governmentinherited from Labour is primarily a debt crisis, just as the turmoil engulfinginternational markets stems from anxiety that countries will not be able to payback what they owe.

In difficult circumstances, the chancellor, GeorgeOsborne, managed to defy a world trend and stabilise the UK’s economy, but hecould only do that by devising a credible plan to cut our deficit.

In contrast the seventeen countries which use theeuro are currently locked in crisis talks. Setting aside the bizarrejargon of ‘Greek haircuts’ and ‘big bazookas’, the crux is that you can’ttackle a debt crisis by continually taking on more debt.

Thankfully, as a region of the UK, we’ve got roomfor optimism. We’re part of a relativelystable economy and our government took prompt action to get the deficit undercontrol. We’ve also got a favourable settlement on our block grant,avoiding the worst spending cuts, felt across the rest of Britain.

We still need to do our bit, of course, and savemoney where we can. And the parties at Stormont need to be morestraightforward when they spell out which cuts are necessary, so that jobs andservices can be saved where possible.

As for the unions, they can only serve workers’interests well if they are constructive and flexible. Most of theirmembers, after all, aren’t fiery leftists, spoiling for a fight with thegovernment. They just want help andadvice which enables them to keep their jobs and work hard in decentconditions. The unions should stick tolooking out for their welfare, rather than campaigning for strikes on the basisof outdated political ideology.

From yesterday's News Letter.

All registered parties will contest State Duma election

2011-10-27T18:00:00.000+01:00

Elections to Russia's State Duma will take place on December 4th. Ria Novosti reports today that all of the registered parties will contest the poll and points out that this is the first time that has happened since 1993. The Russian ministry of justice provides a list of the contenders.

It includes Pravoye Delo, or Right Cause, the free market friendly group, whose newly appointed leader, Mikhail Prokhorov, was recently ousted. Other contenders Zyuganov's perennial challengers, the KPR (Russian communists), and another veteran's grouping, the LDPR, led by nationalist rabble-rouser Vladimir Zhirinovsky.

Pollsters were suggesting that United Russia, whose list will be topped by the outgoing President, Dmitry Medvedev, might struggle to retain the 2/3rds majority which it needs to change constitutional law. Levada's latest suggestion is that voter apathy might help the party to maintain its dominance.

Oh minister, where art thou?

2011-10-21T17:30:00.000+01:00

Sinn Fein reps are quite the culturevultures this week, with the notable exception of culture minister Caral NiChuilin. MáirtínÓ Muilleoir is curating an exhibition of ‘political art’ hosted at theGolden Thread Gallery.

It includes an offering by Conrad Atkinson (above), which apparently caused controversyback in the 70s, when Protestant museum workers refused to hang the painting atthe Ulster Museum.

As it happens, they may have acted on aesthetic rather than sectarian motivations, because, aside from its questionable 'political message', the artwork looks rather like it was painted by a disturbedfour year old child.

However all art exhibitions are certainly not equal in Shinner land. According to the Irish News our socalled culture minister has declined an invitation to attend the Royal UlsterAcademy’s 130^th Annual Exhibition, which gets underway at the UlsterMuseum today. One of its exhibits is a rather striking portrait entitled“Remember Mary Travers”.

Guest Post: Leave our Alain alone

2011-10-18T17:30:00.000+01:00

By itwassammymcnallywhatdoneit

As we know well in Northern Ireland, predicting someone’s views on a range of issues doesn't require a crystal ball, just a clue as to their background - their name, the school they attended or their address. Once you have sniffed out those details, you can identify their tribe and you can then have a fair stab at working out what they think.

Of course, tribalism is not just confined to Ulster and tribal loyalties are not always that straightforward. Take Monsieur Alain Rolland for example, born and raised in Ireland but with a French father. For many Welsh rugby fans such continental lineage was proof positive of his preference for the land of his father, Wales's opponents in the rugby world cup semi-final and of course explains his 'outrageous' decision to send off the Welsh captain Sam Warburton.

When England were knocked out of the world cup, by perhaps the bitterest of their many 'old enemies' France, Wales found themselves up against the same opponents and the centre of British media interest in the run up to the semi-final. Unlike poor unloved England, who had exited in disarray in the glare of dreadful publicity, all the media stories about Wales were extremely positive. Rather than tossing dwarves in the local hostelries, we were told the Welsh formed themselves into a Choir and whiled away the hours singing harmonies - no going on the pop and chasing the local talent for them. David Cameron, perhaps reeling from the Fantastic stories circulating about his defence secretary Mr Fox(who by now was rivalling the English rugby team for bad press) declared his Prime Ministerial support for Wales and ran the Welsh flag up the mast in Downing Street.

Not a bad word was muttered against the Welsh, not even from the Irish - still smarting from the hiding we took from our fitter and younger Celtic cousins the previous week. Cymru am byth.

The stage was set.

Only France stood between Wales and a world cup final and with the Millennium stadium, rocking with 65,000 (more than at the game itself), there could only be one winner?

But after 17 minutes of the semi-final the Franco-Irish referee reached into his pocket and took from it a card - colour Red, not colour Yellow(which would have been in contravention of the IRB directive issued only weeks previously). Yet every rugby pundit and Welsh (or English) fan or ex-player who could overcome their indignance to be interviewed or to tweet, insisted that it was a 'dreadful' or 'shocking' or 'awful' or 'outrageous' (or all of the preceding) decision. Of course, part of this indignant outrage was based on ignorance of the rules and part based on sheer disappointment. Rugby pundits, who had previously demanded consistency from officals, were now calling for inconsistency, a Yellow card because it was only the 17th minute, a Yellow card because it was the semi-final of the world cup, a Yellow card because the perpetrator had no track record for foul play, a Yellow card because otherwise the game would be wrecked, a Yellow card because a red would stop Wales getting to the world cup final. Shame on you Alain – deep shame.

Jamie Roberts, the outstanding Welsh centre and Irish and British Lion(who is completing a medical degree in his spare time) was clearly struggling to keep his emotions under control when he was interviewed directly after the game - but pointedly refused to criticise the referee's decision. Such a dignified response was not however in evidence from the Welsh coaches with each of them lining up to condemn Rolland for enforcing a punishment designed to prevent serious spinal injuries in this extremely physical contact sport. (Warren Gatland, Wales's head coach, further added to his repuation for ill-judged remarks, by bizarrely trying to claim credit for not cheating during the match by faking a player injury).

In France of course, there was a somewhat different tribal reaction, with coaches and ex-players joining a chorus of approval and lauding Monsieur Rolland for a fine decision.

Back in Ireland, I suspect we too, have rallied behind ‘our Alain’, the bilingual, Garret Fitzgeraldesque official who oft represents Irish Rugby in major tournaments (long after our team have departed) and we will be ready to remind anyone daring to criticise him that the only person who should be in the dock for the incident in the 17th minute is Wales's outstanding young Captain Mr Warburton i.e. the person who actually made the reckless and dangerous tackle.

Difficult job for new Northern Ireland manager as Worthington era draws to an end.

2011-10-14T19:00:00.000+01:00

This blog and Nigel Worthington’s spell as manager ofNorthern Ireland are about the same age. My first post, way back in May 2007, dealt with the IFA’s search for areplacement for Lawrie Sanchez, who had just taken up an English Premier Leaguejob at Fulham.

It’s fair to say that after Worthington took charge, I wasquickly a sceptic. As early as 7 June2007, I voiced disillusionment with his tendency to ‘talk down’ players and twomonths later I asked, for the first (but not for the last) time, ‘is Nigel worthy?’.

Now Worthington has announced his intention to leave thepost after his current contract elapses on 31^st December. We’ve come full circle and the IFA has tostart the search for his successor.

Back in that opening blogpost I expressed the hope that JimMagilton would end up in the Northern Ireland hot-seat. More than four years later and this time theWest Belfast man is the bookmakers’ favourite to take over from Worthington.

If Magilton does get the job he will have a formidable taskahead.

Back in 2007 Sanchez left the Northern Ireland set-up comparativelyhealthy, but it doesn’t look nearly so robust in 2011. The playing staff are low in confidence, eachmatch sees a series of high profile cry-offs and the FAI’s poachingstrategy is beginning to seriously affect the pool of players which a newmanager will have at his disposal.

Worthington is gone and there’s no point labouring thepoint, but he has to take a share of the blame for the depressing state of NorthernIreland football.

The belittling comments about his own players started assoon as he took the job and continued throughout his reign.

He scarcely made any attempt to ensure that squad membersturned up for international duty rather than crying off injured at the behestof their clubs; let’s face it, if he had, he wouldn’t have had a shred ofcredibility.

Nigel himself was the worst offender when he was manager ofNorwich City. He persistently withdrewPhil Mulryne and Paul McVeigh from Northern Ireland squads, until Lawrie Sanchezwas forced to invoke the 5 day rule, which prevents players playing for theirclubs until 5 days after an international match for which they’ve declaredinjured.

Far from showing contrition, Worthington vehemently defendedhis conduct, even after he’d become an international manager.

How could his complaints be taken seriouslywhen other club bosses did exactly the same thing?

On the poaching issue he was confused and hypocritical. He didn’t seem to understand FIFA’seligibility criteria and he often resorted to contradictory arguments about playersplaying for the country in which they were born.

That’s before we get to the slow, tedious style of playwhich he inculcated. He couldn't seem to grasp that, because 'Northern Ireland aren't Barcelona', as he once witheringly observed, that we have to disrupt teams, play at a high tempo, get the ball forward directly, rather than attempting to play passing football.

In fairness his legacy isn’t all bad. The new manager will inherit a healthy youthset-up and a scouting network which should help to identify futurestars.

And future stars are sorely needed because at the moment thesquad looks rather threadbare.

There's a nucleus of ageing players, some of whom are retiring, while others fail to get game-time at their clubs. There's a small handful of players in their prime, some of whom withdraw from squads on a regular basis. And there is a larger pool of unproven young players, many of whom are now actively being courted by the Republic of Ireland.

Good luck Jim, or whoever else the IFA decides to put faith in. You're going to need it.

Russia's presidential saga resolved as Duma election takes a familiar shape.

2011-09-30T16:32:00.002+01:00

Last Saturday a lengthy political saga finally came to an end atUnited Russia’s conference in Moscow. DmitryMedvedev and Vladimir Putin announced that the latter will contest next year’sRussian Presidential election. Thisresolves the “will he or won’t he” speculation about President Medvedev seekinga second term in office.

There will, of course, be many Russian liberals who see thisdecision as a fatal blow to Russia’s democracy. There will also be a chorus of “we told you so”s from commentators hostileto the Kremlin who always maintained that Medvedev’s presidency was a sham.

Their arguments have some force, but they’revery far from the full picture.

The President has defended his decision to step aside and let Putin contest the election, observing thatthe Prime Minister is Russia’s “most authoritative” leader.

The Russian public has consistently expressed its preference for Putin, ahead of Medvedev, where polls gave a choice betweenthe two men. Alexei Levinson, from the Levada Institute, runs through the figures on Open Democracy.

Anotherswitch of positions between Medvedev and Putin hardly suggests flourishingpolitical competition, but it is broadly reflective of the will of the Russianpeople. Russia will end up with thePresident whom a majority wishes to fill the post.

Earlier in the year I mentioned the thesis of Richard Sakwa’sbook, The Crisis of Russian Democracy. Sakwaargues that the competitive element in Russian politics is subsumed within theadministrative system but he also maintains that the ‘constitutional’ aspect ofRussian politics holds the worst excesses of the unelected ‘administrativeregime’ in check.

He can’t be re-examining his theory with any undue concernthis week. The competitive element seems more than evident after the liberalising Finance Minister, Alexei Kudrin, wasforced to step down, when he expressed unwillingness to serve under the newarrangements. And the fact that Putinfelt obliged to observe the letter of the Russian constitution, beforelaunching his comeback, emphasises that proprieties hold some force.

Witness the Kremlin’s efforts, now in disarray, to establishthe market-friendly party Right Cause as a contender in December’s State Dumaelections. Sakwa has a fascinating article in OD explaining how the leadership of billionaire, Mikhail Prokhorov,has fallen apart.

Only months ago Right Cause was being touted as apro-Medvedev, liberal alternative to Putinite United Russia. Now Prokhorov has been ousted, Right Cause isin a mess and Medvedev has stepped aside to give Putin a free run.

There is a justifiable degree of scepticism about theindependence of the parties which can realistically challenge for seats in theState Duma; whether it’s Just Russia or even Zhirinovsky’s LDPR, but although United Russia is dominant, theparty isn’t allowed to hold a monopoly of power and both Putin and Medvedevremain a step removed from it.

That’s just another small reason why the “Putinism = the newStalinism” editorials which graced many papers on Monday morning seem so hystericallyshrill.

So we move towards an election in December that will beviewed effectively as a plebiscite on the inverted Putin – Medvedev tandem which will surely follow the presidential contest in March. It's all a little familiar, given the equivalent contest in 2007.

You don't learn basic honesty at journalism school.

2011-09-16T13:20:00.002+01:00

For months now the Johann Hari affair has gripped thepolitical blogosphere. The Independentcolumnist caused consternation when he was caught out embellishing some of his interviews with quotes takenfrom other sources.

Now I don’t intend to make any contribution to the highlypersonalised debate which has taken place for and against Hari. I didn’t particularly enjoy his columns, butneither did they send me into apoplectic rage. The most I can say about his writing is that it was highly ideologicaland as such it had that precocious-but-angry adolescent feel to it.

His interviews, I must admit, I rarely bothered toread. The Independent may take a greatdeal of pride in its ‘journalistic integrity’, but it’s by some distance theleast read national quality newspaper and it is (let’s be honest) seriouslydull.

Its coverage of the UK regions is frankly shameful and thebest that can be said about the re-modelled paper is that it’s dropped those intensely irritating ‘issue’front pages, which had a minimum of text and a big picture illustrating the ‘outrage’of the day.

I did buy the Independent yesterday though and I read Hari’s ‘personal apology’. It was highly unconvincing.

The columnist is promising to take a four month course injournalism, after which he intends to continue working at the Independent. He assures his readers that any future articleswill be published online with accompanying foot-notes and, where interviewshave taken place, video evidence of their content.

Now, I know that Hari must attract readers to theIndependent, but for goodness sake, give it up!

Who on earth wants to read a journalist who is so discredited that hehas to jump through hoops before anyone can believe a word that he’swritten? "Interesting interview, but I’dbetter boot up the old computer and double-check that it actually took place"!

Imagine if a cowboy handy-man caused litres of brown sludgeto swamp your bathroom; would you employ him six months later if hepledged to undertake a plumbing night-class?

The preposterous conceit here is that Hari didn't quite fully realise that he was doing something wrong, because he’d beenfast-tracked through the world of journalism and hadn’t received the necessarybasic training. As someone who isn’t atrained journalist, but who has tried, for a spell, to make a living writing innewspapers and magazines, I resent that analysis.

Hari is accused of plagiarism.

He went to Cambridge for goodness sake. Is anyone seriously suggesting that no-one ever walked him through a few basic lessons in not copying huge chunks of other people’swork and claiming it as his own? That’s one of the first thingsthat any university drills into its students nowadays. It’s even a major theme in schools.

I’m not for a moment suggesting that anyone can walk into anewspaper and do the job of a seasoned reporter. But honesty - basic intellectual honesty - inwriting, that’s not something that can be picked up at journalism school.

Since time immemorial writers have taken different paths into journalism. But if you’re currentlythinking of making money by penning articles professionally and you haven’t comeup through the traditional route, working for a local paper, whether yourbackground is academia, politics or even blogging, your prospects have just got thatbit bleaker.

And you have Johann Hari to thank.

Boundary changes in Northern Ireland

2011-09-13T13:14:00.001+01:00

If you're one of the chosen few pouring over details of the boundary commission's proposed changes to the electoral map in Northern Ireland, this map will prove useful. We're set to lose 2 out of our current 18 Westminster constituencies and these are the commission's plans to change the boundaries.

The possible electoral ramifications will keep pundits busy over the coming weeks and months, but a few weird and wonderful geographical / local identity issues will also keep debate boiling.

For instance it's intriguing that the new mid-Antrim constituency will snake out from the coast to encompass Ballymena, as well the East Antrim locale of Larne and Carrickfergus. Indeed Ballymena town will be separated from outlying villages like Cullybackey and Broughshane, which are part of Ballymena council and undoutbedly part of the same area.

No doubt there will be similar issues elsewhere. Intriguing.

Guest Post: Rugby, thuggery, and the judge

2011-09-12T17:30:00.000+01:00

A guest post by itwassammymcnallywhatdoneit

Rugby, thuggery, and the judge

Manu Tuilagi is an outstanding rugby player and at 20, he is the youngest of six professional rugby playing brothers.

His 5 older brothers have all represented Samoa, but Manu, having arrived from Samoa at the age of 13, declared for the England senior team having played through the National age grade structures. Season 2010-11 was Manu’s first season in the Aviva Premiership and he almost immediately showed his potential, not only as an outstanding prospect for his club Leicester, but also as a future England international.

In boxing parlance, he weighs in at 17.5 stone and stands 6.1 tall (reach undeclared) and as he proved on the 14th May, when lining out for Leicester against Northampton, in the Aviva Premiership semi-final, he packs a hell of punch.

His Tysonseque attack (shown here about 30 seconds in) on England’s winger Chris Ashton, would have been worthy of Iron Mike himself and resulted in both players being sin-binned. After the game, which was a knockout blow, not only for Ashton but also for Northampton’s Premiership interest, a clearly angry Northampton coach, Jim Mallinder, whilst acknowledging that Ashton had pushed Tuilagi, reasonably complained that “you cannot react with three punches to the head without a red.”

In the fallout from the affair, Jon Sleighthome (ex England and Northampton), observed in the Northampton Chronicle and Echo, the following Tuesday - “I am sure that the citing officer, and the disciplinary panel will make an example of Manu, and the outside chance that he had of being in England’s World Cup squad were extinguished in a blow.” But although Sleighthome’s prediction did seem like a reasonable one, with Tuilagi indeed being cited and the incident being categorised as a “top level entry offence”, he hadn’t reckoned with the RFU disciplinary committee, headed up by His Honour Judge Jeff Blackett.

Blackett commented that “the top-end range is eight to 52 weeks and we determined that the appropriate entry point within that range is 10 weeks." And having gone for the lower end of the range the committee then decided that the 10 weeks should be “reduced by 50% to reflect Manu's youth and inexperience, his admission of guilt and his genuine remorse."

As the English rugby blog Blood and Mud commented “He's 20, not 12 so youth is no mitigation. On the 'Admission of guilt'; he was recorded on TV from two angles punching the shite out of someone, how exactly could he plead not-guilty? Then we have 'Genuine remorse'; where he's basically being rewarded for not saying "I'm glad I smacked the bastard and I'd happily do it again".

The convenient leniency shown by the RFU for such outright thuggery not only reflects very poorly on English rugby in particular - with their National team’s pedestrian midfield now bolstered by the dynamic Tuilagi at the World cup - but also reflects very badly on the image of rugby in general. …and for those of us, who like to complacently lecture football (soccer) supporters on what they can learn from Rugby what this tawdry episode and others (such as the Bloodgate affair also featuring Judge Blackett) reminds us of, is that there are far more serious matters than falling over in the penalty area and arguing with referees which are rather more deserving of our attention.

Four points or bust for Northern Ireland in next two games

2011-09-01T16:31:00.000+01:00

Another Northern Ireland match is looming. Last time the team took an early lead againstthe Faroe Islands, before falling into the old pattern of slow sidewayspassing. Luckily the introduction ofNiall McGinn, early in the second half, revitalised the line-up and StevenDavis notched up a second from long range, before Pat McCourt decided to takethe Islanders apart twice with his mesmerising ball skills.

This time the opposition is a sight stiffer. Mind you, over at The Social Club, Jonathan Wilson notes that the Serb manager, Vladimir Petrovic, has indicated that he would behappy to return from Belfast with a draw.

It is therefore likely that the Serbs, with a number of players missing, will set up defensively against Northern Ireland. Nigel Worthington is also an innately cautious manager and it looks probable that McCourt and Kyle Lafferty, both of whom are reportedly suffering from calf-strains, will be missing, It's therefore shaping up to be a turgid encounter. Think about the Italy game, where both sides were happy to sit in frontof each other’s defences.

Theoretically a draw would keep Northern Ireland in thehunt, with all eyes then turning to Tallinn, where we play Estonia onTuesday. My feeling is that a win isneeded, because it is by no means likely that we will take three points in an away game againstreasonably credible opposition. Estonia have already beaten Serbia during this campaign.

Without a shadow of doubt, two draws will leave too much to do.

It's not that supporters ought to expect Northern Ireland to qualify, but they do have a right to expect the team and the coach to give it their best go. Unless there is a properly committed performance on Friday night and unless there is a clear will to win, as distinct from a will not to lose, then calls for another manager to be given a chance in the next campaign will grow louder.

Transparency on Spads

2011-08-25T16:03:00.002+01:00

My column from News Letter 25 August 2011.

SPECIAL advisers, or Spads as they’re generally known, are a rather unique type of civil servant. Appointed directly by ministers, they aren’t required to go through a competitive recruitment process and their role is openly political.

Spads do operate within certain limits; for instance they can’t get involved in campaigning during elections, but they’re bound by no requirements of impartiality. There’s nothing wrong with that per se, but it means that, effectively, the taxpayer foots the bill so that ministers can receive highly political advice.

Obviously such an arrangement should carry with it some pretty strict responsibilities, because while parties and ministers pick Spads, it’s the public that pays for them. At Stormont, though, the special adviser role seems be shrouded in secrecy and recently it has attracted one controversy after another.

There was widespread revulsion earlier this year when Sinn Féin culture minister, Caral Ni Chuilin, chose a convicted killer, Mary McArdle, to be her Spad. Quite understandably the family of Mary Travers felt the appointment was an unacceptable insult to their loved one’s memory.

The public has a right to expect that only people of good character and standing should be given special advisers’ posts, which come with a healthy salary.

In the instance of Mary McArdle, it’s pretty clear that that precept wasn’t kept to. The appointment was a hurtful and unnecessary reminder of a terrible crime and it seemed, to many people, like a reward for an act of violence.

Where public tax money is used we also have a right to expect it to be spent as sensibly and efficiently as possible, but in the case of special advisers at Stormont, prudence doesn’t seem to be a major consideration.

The First and Deputy First Ministers’ Office alone has eight special advisers, with the 11 remaining departments boasting one each. By comparison, Owen Paterson, a member of the UK cabinet, has a single Spad and Alex Salmond, the First Minister in Scotland, makes do with one part time adviser.

Recently the News Letter reported that the maximum salary for Spads in Northern Ireland would rise to £90,000 a year. That is substantially higher than the wages of all but a handful of special advisers to the Westminster administration, which governs over 60 million people.

If you tot up the figures, Spads at Stormont could be costing us approaching £7 million over the lifetime of an Assembly. In fact, we can’t know the total cost to the public purse because their salaries are kept secret!

In contrast, when David Cameron became prime minister, his government published a complete list of its special advisers, including exact details of their pay grades and salaries. That’s a healthy attitude to transparency, but it’s also simply what the public deserves. Unfortunately, in Northern Ireland, the executive is falling far short of these standards.

There really isn’t any excuse for this lack of openness. The Stormont executive has got to catch up with Westminster and provide a full list of special advisers and their salaries. This is basic information which we all have a right to know.

We also need to ask whether it is really necessary for Northern Ireland to have 19 Spads when Scotland, a country with a population three times as large, can make do with 11.

Where taxpayers’ money is being spent, secrecy is no longer acceptable. The new government at Westminster has breathed a new spirit of openness and accountability through public life. People in Northern Ireland deserve the same approach at Stormont

Guest post: What does a vote for Sinn Féin really mean?

2011-08-23T09:30:00.000+01:00

The following is a thought-provoking guest post by itwassammymcnallywhatdoneit. It's interesting because it rather flies in the face of the usual nationalist analysis: i.e. that a vote for Sinn Féin does not necessarily imply any degree of approval for the IRA's campaign of violence.

By itwassammymcnallywhatdoneit

Berty Ahern, famously opined that SF and the Provos “are two sides of the same coin”.

Now, if we leave aside the boul Berty’s general tendency to get things wrong (especially when he was Taoiséach) and if we also leave aside the amusing protestations of President Adams that he has never heard of the IRA (or whatever it is Gerry likes to tell us from time to time) and assume that on this one at least, Bertram is on the money, then what does that tell us about the majority of the Northern Nationalist electorate who vote for SF?

Well, it surely tells us, that Northern Nationalists have, at the least, an ambivalent attitude to the Provo’s campaign of violence. It surely also tells us, that Northern Nationalists view the Provo campaign as having been more inspired by politics than criminality - and that however unpleasant and unfortunate some of it may have been, those who organised it (and according to Berty that would be the current SF leadership), are now fully deserving of the rewards of political office.

It is not as if the Nationalist electorate have no choice. The decline of the SDLP began when John Hume (probably the most popular Nationalist politician since the 1930s in either part of the island) was still at the helm and that decline has continued with the SDLP’s two remaining redoubts, South Down and Derry coming under increasing electoral siege.

No one in the SDLP has ever fired a shot, or set off a bomb, or organised any such activities, and yet, having stood their political ground and supplied in John Hume the political architect of the current settlement, not just between Orange and Green, but also between Ireland and Britain, they nevertheless find themselves losing out to SF - who are now claiming the SDLP’s political ground as their very own.

Nationalists, it would therefore seem, don’t not vote for the SDLP because, as it is sometimes claimed, they don’t cut the political mustard, but rather because most Nationalists prefer to vote for a party, who (according to Berty) did either fire guns and set off bombs or organised such activities.

Northern Nationalists now accept the legitimacy of the northern political arrangements but their current voting habits suggest they also accept the legitimacy of a Provo campaign of violence that helped destroy the previous political arrangements.

Such views on the legitimacy of the Provo campaign are not of course shared by Unionists, but Unionists do generally share Berty’s view of the relationship between SF and violence, as reflected in the continued use of the term ‘SF-IRA’ and the occasionally less than diplomatic outbursts such as the ‘SF scum’ remarks by UUP Leader Tom Elliott.

Perhaps, it is with deference to Unionism’s sensitivities, or perhaps because of the proverbial ‘Catholic’ guilt, that when Nationalists are opinion-polled the level of SF support is generally under recorded. But, when it comes to the polls that really matter, Nationalists clearly prefer to vote for those who (according to Berty), have a violent past.

…and however politically uncomfortable it may be to admit this in a society still scarred and divided by decades of violence and still striving to come to terms with that past - let’s not pretend otherwise.

Operation 'Certain Death'

2011-08-17T17:25:00.000+01:00

It's nearly six months late, but here's my take on Northern Ireland's rather bizarre trip to Serbia. It's an early, diary style draft of an article which appeared in Four Four Two magazine.

They’vebecome known simply as ‘The 200’. Agroup of Northern Ireland fans determined to defy security warnings and a UEFAedict in order to attend their country’s Euro 2012 qualifier in Serbia.

It’s 1.15pmon Friday 25^th March and FourFourTwo dashes across Budapest airporton a mission to join these steely souls. I reach the gate just as it closes and collapse in a sweaty, pantingheap on the connecting flight. Next stopBelgrade - home of the most feared football hooligans in Europe.

Violence atSerbia’s last qualifying match in Italy led UEFA to rule that the game againstNorthern Ireland at Red Star’s ’Marakana’ Stadium should take place behindclosed doors. After protests from theIrish Football Association (IFA) the authorities grudgingly agreed to admittravelling fans who booked their trips prior to the ruling.

There isspeculation in the Northern Irish press that Serb Ultras aren’t happy andintend to wreak revenge on visiting supporters. FFT peaks out the aircraft window and sips a drink. Let Operation ‘Certain Death’ begin!

Friday25^th March, 4.15 pm:

Three hourslater and the pace has slackened, with FFT’s taxi stuck in Belgrade Fridayafternoon gridlock. “There is aproblem”, explains the driver, “you bombed our bridges”. The passengers protest their innocence. “Nato destroyed the bridges”, the Serbadmonishes, “now the traffic is bad“.

Just twelveyears ago Serbia was bombarded from the air by the west. Our visit coincides with the anniversary ofNato’s intervention in the Kosovo War. No wonder some Serbs are a little touchy! We decide it’s quicker to walk.

We’re enroute to the Intercontinental Hotel, headquarters for the Northern Irelandsquad and IFA officials. There we willbe given match tickets and hush-hush details of a pre-game meeting point. Serbian police will ensure our safety beforea convoy of buses leaves for the ground.

Anatmosphere of caution and secrecy has shrouded all the arrangements for thismatch. In October Northern Ireland fans’travel plans were plunged into chaos after hooligans rioted in Genoa and UEFAhanded Serbia a supporters’ ban for its next qualifier. The IFA sought refunds for fans who hadalready shelled out money, but it quickly became apparent that many of the‘Green and White Army’ intended to travel to Belgrade anyway. The Association and supporters’representatives changed tack and lobbied UEFA to reverse Serbia‘s punishment.

Eventuallythe authorities decided that a small number of Northern Ireland fans couldattend the game after all, but Serbs would still be locked out. It was a reluctant concession. UEFA evenoffered free tickets to the Europa League final in Dublin, to tempt potentialtravellers not to make the trip. Northern Ireland supporters are made fromsterner stuff than that. The vastmajority chose to stick with their original plans and two months later they’reforming an orderly queue for tickets. They number just over 240, with UEFA revising its estimate of 200 upwardsto accommodate all but a small handful who booked after the deadline.

Kristijanhas travelled from Macedonia to meet supporters from the internet forum ’OurWee Country’ (OWC). He explains that thenotorious Serb warlord Arkan was gunned down right here in theIntercontinental’s lobby, back in 2000. The Red Star fanatic recruited many members of his Tigers paramilitarygroup from among the club‘s hooligan element. They subsequently became notorious for their brutality during the war inBosnia.

A soberingthought and another reminder of Serbia’s troubled recent history.

5.30pm:

Back incentral Belgrade things are relaxed. Most Northern Ireland supporters ignore warnings to keep their colourshidden. This isn’t a typical away tripthough. The Green and White Army likesto gather en masse in a city centre square to drink and meet locals, but todaysmall groups hurry to bars and keep things low key.

FFT joinsone set of supporters in Bar Red on Skadarlija, a Bohemian street in the heartof old Belgrade. Two policemen sitinside watchfully, resisting fans’ attempts to buy them beer. It seems to be an unnecessary precaution,because the Northern Ireland contingent are getting on famously withlocals. A TV crew stops to interviewtravelling fans and ply them with slivovitz, the local plum brandy. They film Gordon McKeown from Portadowndowning a shot and turning an alarming shade of purple. “It’s an interesting mix of flavours”, heconcludes diplomatically.

We chat toa group of Montenegrin Serbs who describe themselves as ‘Ultras’. They’re miffed to be locked out of the gamebut they take our banter in good part. Adrunk guy at the bar is going to attend. He describes himself as a journalist and pulls out a sheaf of presspasses. “Are you working?” asks anincredulous FFT. Apparently so. That’s one match report which should be worthreading!

7pm:

Supportersin University Square board a fleet of buses. Access is strictly ticket only and a burly security guard friskspassengers for bottles or cans. For anhour or so fans have gathered in the square, mingling with early eveningcommuters and surrounded by heavily armed police.

The convoyjolts into motion, flanked by motorcycle outriders with sirens wailing. Each junction is manned by traffic policemento ensure that there are no delays. Anoccasional passer-by waves or makes a thumbs down gesture but it’s hardly’welcome to hell’ stuff.

FFT asksMarty Lowry, owner of the OWC forum, about his experience in Belgrade sofar. “It’s been great”, he confirms,“everyone’s been exceptionally friendly, though the local supporters like totell some hair-raising tales”.

“We visitedthe two main club grounds yesterday, which are less than a mile apart. We bought some souvenirs at the Red Star shopand the staff warned us to keep our bags well hidden if we were walkinganywhere near Partizan.”

The‘Eternal Derby’ between Red Star and Partizan Belgrade is one of the mostfiercely contested in world football. Marty clutches a bunch of white tulips in an obscure tribute toPartizan. FFT doesn’t accept the offerof a flower to carry into the Red Star Stadium!

Our buspulls up outside the ground amid a media scrum. Disembarking Northern Ireland supporters are met by rows of armed policein body armour and, with every conceivable access route closely guarded, thereare more officers than spectators. Thereisn’t a Serb fan in sight and photographers scramble to snap partyingsupporters beside frowning policemen. For riot police these guys are pretty tolerant though and they don‘tcomplain as 240 fans crowd round to jostle for photographs. A familiar face, Gerry Armstrong, hero of NorthernIreland’s 1982 World Cup squad, looks on with bewilderment.

8.15pm:

The lastfew supporters pass through security after a long and occasionally ill-temperedwait. The novelty of the searches haslong since worn off and a UEFA delegate chivvies the stewards along. A rigorousfrisk is followed by a once over with a metal detector. Supporters ditch little mounds of coins whichare eagerly snapped up by some Serb children who have slipped through the ranksof policemen.

Inside theMarakana Stadium FFT takes in a surreal scene. The Northern Ireland contingent is housed in Red Star’s VIP section, aphenomenal distance from the pitch. Green and White foot-soldiers lounge in enormous, cinema style chairsfacing a row of security guards. Therest of the 53,000 seat arena is empty - save for a packed press gallery (justimagine how it might look whenever West Ham moves to the OlympicStadium).

NorthernIreland supporters have a boisterous reputation and as kick off approaches theydo their best to create an atmosphere. In this cavernous stadium, though, it feels like their chants simplydrift off into the chilly Belgrade night.

When theteams line up and Northern Ireland’s anthem is played over the PA there is apalpable sense of relief. Early arrivalswitnessed a rehearsal where the Republic of Ireland’s anthem was playedinstead!

9.10pm

Mayhem inthe VIP section as Gareth McAuley connects with Chris Brunt’s free kick to headthe opening goal. It’s NorthernIreland’s first first-half strike in two years and the fans are almost inraptures again when Kyle Lafferty squanders a glorious opportunity to nick asecond.

Munching achoc ice in the bar at half-time, Richard Oliver from Ballymena isapprehensive, despite the score-line. “Knowing Nigel Worthington (the Northern Ireland manager) he’ll try toshut up shop. There’s a long 45 minutesahead”, he warns FFT. It’s a propheticanalysis. The fans become frustratedafter the interval, as Northern Ireland drop deeper and deeper. “Attack, attack, attack!”, becomes the mostfrequent chant, replacing, “shall we sing a song for you”, and, “big ground, nofans”.

When theequaliser finally comes, the press gallery, which tonight contains more than100 “accredited journalists“, explodes with delight. The Serbs’ second is inevitable and it’sgreeted with delirium by a small group of bus drivers in our section. The Green and White Army belt out “2-1 andyou still don’t sing”, but on this occasion there is a riposte. “Serbia! Serbia!”, ventures a lone driver.

Usuallystoical in defeat the Northern Ireland supporters feel that Worthington’s negativetactics are to blame. Kenny Armstrongfrom Ballymena asks why Celtic’s “Derry Pele” Pat McCourt is notintroduced. “The game’s crying out forhis creativity”.

The matchlimps to a close and Northern Ireland are beaten 2-1. Dejected fans muster a final roar for theirheroes who respond with applause. TheSerb team also comes over to wave and receive an ovation from Northern Irelandsupporters. It’s a nice touch.

In normalcircumstances there would be a lengthy wait for home fans to vacate the stadiumbut tonight it’s straight back unto the buses for another police escort. The streets are quiet, without any sign ofcelebrating Serb fans. Back at Bar Red,though, our Montenegrin friends are triumphant. “Even without any fans, Serbiawins. UEFA will be disappointed - theypunish our supporters, but we win anyway“. They feel that their team has prevailed, despite an unfairdisadvantage.

Saturday27^th March, 11am:

At RepublicSquare, in Belgrade City Centre, FFT contemplates the previous day with fellowNorthern Ireland fans.

After allthe horror stories, Serbia has confounded expectations. There’s disappointment about the result butoverwhelmingly everyone’s impressions are positive. The principal regret is that home fansweren’t there to complete a memorable experience. “Can you imagine 50,000 Serbs in thatstadium”, enthuses Gavin Nixon from Belfast, “the atmosphere would beincredible”.

Last nightgreen and white were the prevalent colours but this morning it’s justgreen. A small group protests againstNato’s action in Libya, waving posters of Muammar Gadaffi, who provided aid toSerbia after it was bombed in the late 1990s. They’re particularly keen to handout green Libyan flags to tourists. It’sa fitting image. Belgrade has provedwelcoming, exciting and, contrary to its reputation, surprisingly beautiful,but history and politics are never far away.

A guide arrives to conduct a walking tour featuringbomb damaged buildings and murals which are guarded night and day by PartizanUltras. Belgrade’s attractions are neverconventional! Members of the Green andWhite Army shuffle along behind, nursing hangovers, but hoping to visit Serbiaagain sooner rather than later.

Guest post: The other football world cup

2011-08-16T09:20:00.004+01:00

The following is a guest post from itwassammymcnallywhatdoneit, who well be well known among Slugger readers. Thanks to Sammy for a great pre competition analysis. Coincidentally I'm off to Dublin on Saturday to see the Irish team prepare for the competition with another match against France.

On the 9^th September the Rugby football world cup kicks off and for a sizeable minority on the island of Ireland this will be the major sporting event of this year – if not the last four.

Ireland, share group C with Australia, Italy, Russia and the USA and if the form book proves reliable, we will qualify as runner-ups to Australia and exit at the quarter final stage to South Africa. Rugby, doesn’t tend to do surprises and the winners, on home soil, are likely to be New Zealand, the strong bookies favourites at 8/15.

Four years ago in France, Ireland were tipped as the dark horses (and with some encouragement from the Irish camp) and then immediately set about proving wrong, those who had mistakenly placed their faith in them - almost losing to Rumania(a team largely comprised of converted Greco-Roman wrestlers) and getting thumped by France and Argentina.

The rebranding of the proverbial underdogs clearly backfired.

So any optimism about Ireland’s fortunes will have to be kept very quiet and tempered by the knowledge that if the players get wind of such musings they will no doubt set about falling apart all over again.

So there should be absolutely no talk at all of Ireland’s grand slam win 2 years ago, the fact that we thrashed England(world cup winners and twice finalists) in the final game of this year’s 6 Nations, have a half dozen world class players in O’Driscoll, O’Connell, Ferris, Heaslip, Bowe and O’Brien and that Irish Provincial teams have won the Heineken Cup in 4 of the last 6 years.

And there should certainly not be any discussion of the possibility that if we did beat the very talented but very inconsistent Australians that there would most likely be no further Southern Hemisphere opposition until the final.

No, arguably the most talented Irish rugby team of all time need to keep their heads down, their feet firmly on the ground and with their underdog tag securely in place head off to do battle - and maybe, just maybe, they will surprise us.

Gwan Ireland.

Democratic Unionist Party are on moderate ground ...... in Sudan

2011-08-12T18:25:00.002+01:00

I've been reading The State of Africa: A History of Fifty Years of Independence, after a trip to the Gambia earlier this summer and I was rather startled to discover, in a chapter about Sudan, that the blighted East African country has its very own Democratic Unionist Party.

No doubt the knowledgeable readers of Three Thousand Versts (if any still remain) will be way ahead of the curve on this fact, but it came as a revelation to me.

Now Sudan is not renowned for its history of religious tolerance. Indeed it provided sanctuary for Bin Laden in the 1990s and it was widely regarded at the time as the country in the world with least religious freedom.

Even back then the Democratic Unionist Party in Sudan campaigned for pluralism and state neutrality as regards religion. Get your heads around that Northern Irish readers!

Here we go again. Group F and Brazil 2014.

2011-08-01T18:35:00.000+01:00

It may have seemed a little premature, given that the raceto reach the Euro 2012 finals in Poland and Ukraine is far from resolved, buton Saturday evening FIFA conducted the preliminary draw for the World Cup in2014. The tournament will take place inBrazil and Northern Ireland supporters now know the hurdles which their teamwill face if it is to defy the odds and make it to Rio.

Predictably it’s not going to be easy.

First out of the pot in Group F was little Luxembourg. In theory the lowest ranked team needs tooffer up a simple 6 points, if we have any aspirations of qualifying. Mind you we saw how that can easily go awryin the Faroe Islands last autumn. Luxembourg is not the worst side in European football by a long stretch,that title’s reserved for San Marino, and they form exactly the type ofstumbling block which Northern Ireland has traditionally failed to avoid.

The 5^th seed in our group is Azerbaijan. In the 2006 qualifying tournament we took 4points out of our 2 games against the Azeris. A scoreless draw in Baku was disappointing, but the 2-0 win at WindsorPark set Northern Ireland up for an astonishing victory against England thefollowing Wednesday. It could’ve been very different though, with Stuart Elliott’s opener coming well into the 2^ndhalf.

Can we get 12 points from our games against theseteams? In theory there is no reason whynot. Mind you historically we’ve hadproblems achieving that sort of consistency. I’d imagine 10 points out of 12 would be considered a satisfactoryreturn.

Then we get into the teams ranked above us.

Israel sits third in their Euro 2012 qualifying group. Although it’s fair to say that their group isn’tas strong as Northern Ireland’s. Still, theIsraelis will fancy their chances at Windsor Park. They can claim a number of stars who play inEngland or Spain, but other than Chelsea’s Yossi Benayoun they are not householdnames. Really we ought at least to befighting it out with Israel for 3^rd place.

To manage one of the top two spots will be desperatelydifficult. The form book suggests thatthey should go to Russia and Portugal.

I’m delighted that we’ve drawn Russia, as it should providean opportunity to visit the country again, but they are an extremely strongside and will be desperate to reach the World Cup in Brazil, as a prelude totheir own turn as hosts in 2018. Althoughanother big name gets far more attention, for my money the Russian captain,Arshavin, is the best player Northern Ireland are likely to face in thisqualification campaign. The Arsenal manis enormously talented and creative. Hetends to play just behind Tottenham’s Roman Pavlyuchenko and between them theycomprise a formidable goal threat.

Portugal of course are no slouches either. They currently top their group in the Euros,albeit that they’ve shown they aren’t immune to the odd hiccup. A 4-4 draw against Cyprus and a 1-0 defeatagainst an aging Norway team will give Northern Ireland some hope. Mind you the Portuguese squad is a roll callof famous names from some of the biggest leagues in Europe. And they have a forward who plays forReal Madrid who has a decent reputation.

So a difficult group, but as I commented on Facebook on Saturdaynight, they’re all difficult for Northern Ireland. It contains no team which, on a good night,we cannot beat - particularly at Windsor Park. We've avoided some of the very best and we've avoided sides whose lowly ranking belies their actual ability.

It would be nice if, by next year when thematches will start, the management is in place to really give it a goodgo.

Celebrate Darren's achievement and forget the preaching

2011-07-27T18:30:00.008+01:00

Given that this blog has in the past celebrated theachievements of Rory McIlroy, Graeme McDowell, the European Ryder Cup team and Padraig Harrington it’s shockingly remiss that I’ve not yet managed a postabout Darren Clarke.

The big Dungannon man’s Open triumph was the pick of thebunch when it came to defying the odds. At 42 most experts had written off his prospects of picking up a majortitle.

Last night, though, the BBC got to screen its now traditionaldocumentary, charting the home-coming of yet another major champion. It was a bit of a tear-jerker, capturingemotional scenes as Darren brought the claret jug back to his family inPortrush and to his two sons.

Now Clarke is a nice guy, but he’s not one of the generationof non-descript, clean-cut, identikit sports stars. The documentary captured an awful lot ofdrinking, alongside the formal celebrations and (let’s be honest) a little onscreen inebriation. Some pompous asseshave chosen to focus on this and describe Darren as a “bad example”.

I’d prefer to highlight the years of dedication that it tookto hone his skills, the affable, down to earth personality which ensures thatClarke has time for all his fans and the manifestly warm and loving relationship that hehas with his sons. All these factorsseem a darn sight more important in the scale of things than his fondness for a pint of Guinness or afag after he’s finished the front 9.

One of the great things about golf is that you don’t need tobe a super-fit gym monkey to compete at the highest level (although actually it can help). Is it therefore a coincidencethat it’s one of the few sports which still boasts a fair smattering oflarger than life personalities?

There’s John Daly with his ridiculous trousers and rust-beltmullet, Miguel Angel Jimenez with his mighty gut, advertising an appreciation for thefiner things in life and Ian Poulter with his flamboyant dress sense and heart on sleeve tweeting. People certainly loveDarren because he’s come through adversity to achieve his dream, but they alsolove him because they can identify with him and imagine sharing one ortwo of those Guinnesses he enjoys so much.

Truth is, before he captured that revered piece ofsilverware last week most of his critics wouldn’t have known the difference had his habit beento smoke a six foot tall hookah coming up the 18^th green, nor wouldthey have cared.

A great, down-to-earth, warm Ulsterman has just won the mostprestigious golf tournament in the world. Let’s just enjoy it with him and stop being so judgemental.

Will more strikers equal less tedium?

2011-07-26T18:51:00.000+01:00

Northern Ireland fans probably deserve the summer off afterthe disastrous Carling Nations Cup campaign, but no such luck I'm afraid. Nigel Worthington named his latest squadtoday, ahead of the Euro 2012 qualifier against the Faroe Islands, scheduled for August10^th.

To be fair to the manager it is a fairly adventurousselection. He names six forwards in the23 man panel. David Healy is back in theframe, Burnley’s Martin Paterson gets a recall and Jamie Ward, the Derby Countystriker who secured a permanent move from Sheffield United last season, hasfinally made a breakthrough to the senior set-up.

Another new face is James McClean, who has attracted theattention of a host of English clubs, playing for Derry City in the League ofIreland. There is a suspicion that hehas been promoted too early, with the threat of FAI poaching in mind, but PatMcCourt and Niall McGinn graduated successfully from the Brandywell to becomeinfluential full internationals.

In the normal course of events Northern Ireland would beexpected to beat the Faroe Islands. Indeed if the home team plays positively, 3 points will certainly besecured. On the other hand, Brian Kerrhas forged the Faroese into a capable unit and another lacklustredisplay will mean Worthington’s side struggles.

That means that there’s a premium on forward thinking players. When Northern Ireland is in possession theball has to be moved quickly, with intent. Perhaps a raw, young winger mightn’t be the worst choice.

The difficulty is that, although I’m not discouraged by NigelWorthington’s squad, I still firmly believe that the personnel are not NorthernIreland’s major problem.

Our panel will always be a bit threadbare and I don’t buythe argument that there are many alternatives which would revitalise the team overnight. The problem, in my view, is the style ofplay. It’s too slow, it’s too ponderous,the ball is moved constantly sideways and backwards.

Too often, I suspect, a few turgid, pointless passes in theopening twenty minutes are mistaken for possession football. Northern Ireland has always needed to defendin numbers and soak up pressure. Defensiveness in that sense is not a problem.

It's the lack of another gear, the lack of any intent when the team does have the ball - that’s the problem.

With the best will in the world, I don’t see how that’sgoing to be turned round simply by selecting more strikers in the squad. The entire system has to be revisited and thecoaching changed accordingly. That means a different manager.

It certainly wouldn't guarantee instantly better results,but at least Northern Ireland could give it a go and boy would it be animprovement for the fans who have watched some tedious displays in recentyears.

Violence on the streets points to political problems

2011-07-18T19:32:00.000+01:00

From Friday's Irish News.

Yes, it’s that time of the year again. The annual mayhem is in full swing inNorthern Ireland.

Sectarian clashes at an interface in East Belfast werefollowed by dissident republican disorder in Craigavon, then - not to beoutdone - loyalist rioters torched cars and attacked police last weekend, aftera dispute about flags in Ballyclare. All this before the familiar scenes of destruction engulfed Ardoyne onTuesday night.

The summer threatens to be a long and hot one for the securityforces, at flashpoints across the province. It’s thirteen years since the Good FridayAgreement heralded a hopeful new future for this part of the world, but althoughpower-sharing is firmly entrenched at Stormont, on the ground our communitiesseem as divided as ever.

Politicians may frequently pay lip-service to their desireto “move on” from traditional quarrels and deliver a “shared future”, butevidence from the streets suggests either that people aren’t listening or elsethe parties’ fine words aren’t being matched with actions.

We’re entitled to ask whether the executive is doing itsutmost to tackle segregation and whether a system which entrenches sectarian votingblocs can ever break down divisions in our society.

In recent months the DUP and Sinn Féin have both talked upefforts to attract voters from outside their respective communities. The Shinners claim that a number of workingclass Protestants, who feel abandoned by unionist politicians, are attracted bythe republican party’s record of community activism.

Meanwhile Peter Robinson has appealed to Catholics to votefor the DUP, emphasising its supposed moderate credentials. Buoyed by the latest Northern Ireland Lifeand Times Survey, which suggests a majority of Catholics are happy to remainpart of the UK, he believes a softer, friendlier party can capitalise onpassive pro-Union sentiment.

It’s all rather encouraging - in theory. The parties say they want to reach out beyondtheir traditional supporters and embrace the notion that policy, rather thanreligion, could determine the contents of a voter’s ballot paper. Unfortunately, around the executive table orout on the campaign trail, such aspirations are too easily forgotten.

The two largest parties had a perfect opportunity to dosomething concrete about division last year, when they published the draft oftheir long-awaited Programme for Cohesion, Sharing and Integration (CSI). As itturned out the document was almost universally regarded as a failure.

It contained platitudes aplenty, but skated over key areaslike shared housing and integrated education. It didn’t even bother to calculate the economic cost of sectariandivision to our society - for the record it’s estimated that segregationcarries a price tag of £1.5 billion each year.

The Prime Minister, David Cameron, pithily diagnosed the problem,when he addressed the Assembly last month. Pointing to an increase in the number of peace-walls erected since theSt Andrews Agreement in 2006 he observed, “Northern Ireland needs a genuinelyshared future; not a shared out future”.

It’s a comment which summarises neatly the parties’ failureto “get” what integration and sharing are really all about. With justification the perception flourishesthat their commitment to CSI is skin-deep and that the political institutionsoperate as a sectarian carve-up, rather than a genuinely cooperativeenterprise.

If the violence whichcontinues to flare-up during the summer months doesn’t support that argument,then the political reaction to it certainly does. Some of the DUP’s representatives haveadapted to the party’s touchy feely new image, but there are just as many whoquickly revert to type.

Sammy Wilson was categorical in his condemnation of loyalistviolence, stating that “if there are conversations to be had with the PSNI, youdon’t have them at the end of a petrol bomb”, but Willie McCrea was quicker tofocus on the perceived short-comings of the police, rather than the culpabilityof rioters.

The difference in emphasis suits the DUP, with one messageaimed at moderate unionists who are repelled by trouble and another tailored toloyalist heartlands where the PSNI’s actions are viewed as provocative. For the Catholic voters whom Peter Robinsonclaims he wants to attract, it will simply appear that the party is talking outof both sides of its mouth.

Sinn Féin does exactly the same whenever violence breaks outin republican areas. Its condemnation ofdissident rioters is tempered by half-hearted backing of the police, which theparty claims it is holding to account.

Sadly, for all their claims to the contrary, it seems the representativeswho dominate our Assembly still have a carve-up mentality. Until Northern Ireland’s politics are reallyall about a shared future, rather than a shared out future, the prospect ofpeaceful streets remains remote.

McIlroy - the class act driving golf's global powerhouse (Northern Ireland!)

2011-06-20T10:21:00.002+01:00

Rory McIlroy – what can you say? Northern Irish golf has been in great shape in recent years and he is its David Healy.

It’s not just the record of astonishing, trail-blazing achievement: although Rory spent the week demolishing practically every US Open record (Sir David did much the same during the 2008 European Championship qualifying group). It’s also in the way the two players conduct themselves.

McIlroy has self-confidence - he buried any notion to the contrary this weekend, with a relentless march towards his first major golf championship – but he’s also pleasingly grounded. What’s not to like?

He plays a great sport and he’s mastered it at a young age. He shows sportsmanship and poise on and off the course – even in the teeth of a supposed “melt-down” at the US Masters earlier this year.

He’s a proud and enthusiastic ambassador for Northern Ireland. No-one’s keener than Rory to fly the colours in the wake of a victory and he backs all of our other sports stars and teams to the hilt. You’ll find him following the fortunes of Ulster rugby and Northern Ireland football daily on Twitter.

The only chink in the young man’s armour is the fact that he’s a Manchester United fan – but hey, nobody’s perfect.

So here’s to Rory McIlroy and to the world’s golfing superpower – Northern Ireland. Home of back to back US Open champions.

Invigorating pre-season for Kopites as Dalglish and Comolli look to the future

2011-06-13T23:10:00.001+01:00

Kenny Dalglish made the first big signing of the close season last week by bringing ex Sunderland midfielder Jordan Henderson to Anfield. Now, I’ve got to be honest, I know very little about this player.

I don’t even know, for instance, whether he is principally a defensive or attacking midfielder.

The Liverpool team which last made a serious attempt at the title had two members who have never been adequately replaced. There was silk – the peerless passing ability of Xabi Alonse – and steel - from the rugged Argentinian Javier Mascherano.

I suppose it’s too much to hope that a 20 year old could immediately fill the shoes of either man. But although critics will imply that £20 million is too high a price for an unproven player, Liverpool’s new owners, the FSG group, have made it clear that they are prepared to spend big wherever they see potential. Damien Comolli, the director of football, has been charged with overseeing recruitment.

Their strategy is unlikely to be successful in every instance, but it is a hugely refreshing transfer policy. Kenny Dalglish is the right man to take charge of matters on the field and bring out the best in his young charges.

It is rumoured that Liverpool will announce more high profile signings this week, two of whom also operate in the centre of the park. It might seem like the club is currently loaded down with players in that department, but some of the less convincing midfielders from recent times will surely soon make way to accommodate brighter prospects. Expect Poulsen, Cole and Aquilani to head for the exit

There also remains a doubt about the capacity of Steven Gerrard to see out a full season injury free, at the same intensity which drove Liverpool to a Champions League triumph 6 years ago. An influx of fresh midfield talent can ease the pressure on the captain.

In Dalglish, Liverpool may have reappointed an illustrious figure from their past as the new manager, but in league with a progressive ownership team, the club is looking to the future. It's a high stakes gamble, but time will tell whether it will bring rewards. In the interim Kopites can expect an invigorating pre-season.

With friends like Blatter ......

2011-06-02T19:58:00.003+01:00

It's good for Northern Irish football that Jim Boyce, former president of the IFA, has been elevated to football's top table. In a turbulent week for FIFA he has been named vice-president, representing the four UK associations.

Northern Ireland has long punched over its weight in the world governing body. The late Harry Cavan occupied the role which Boyce now fills for ten years, between 1980 and1990.

It can't hurt to excel in football politics and it can't hurt to have friends in high places. You have to wonder, though, about Boyce's contention, however diplomatic it may have been, that FIFA president Sepp Blatter is a 'friend' of Northern Ireland soccer.

Blatter's high handed and ignorant treatment of the eligibility issue has been one aspect of his presidency. Then we have his ill-concealed preference for a single British football association and one UK team. The question must be asked, with friends like these who needs enemies?

Republic's player poaching to blame for stay-away fans.

2011-05-25T17:16:00.000+01:00

From yesterday's Tele.

Barack Obama and the Queen may have been recent visitors to Dublin, but the vast majority of local football supporters are giving it a bye-ball.

Thousands of Northern Ireland fans had been expected to travel to the Aviva stadium for tonight's Carling Nations Cup clash with the Republic, but now it's likely they will number in the low hundreds, with most supporters' clubs boycotting the match.

The impetus for fans to take this action came when the IFA imposed draconian travel restrictions and levied a £30 fee for coach travel to and from the game.

Digging a little deeper, though, it's clear that the boycott reflects growing disillusion among supporters with the arrangements surrounding the Carling Nations Cup - and even Northern Ireland's decision to participate in the first instance.

The Amalgamation of Northern Ireland Supporters' Clubs insists that its problem with the game is not just an expensive bus ticket; it maintains that the IFA did not listen to its advice in the run-up to the competition.

During the planning stages, the amalgamation recommended that only regular supporters should be permitted to attend Carling Cup games. The IFA chose to ignore that opinion and tickets for Northern Ireland's opening game with Scotland went on general sale.

After the match, footage emerged of an unsavoury incident, where a small number of spectators sang sectarian songs inside the Aviva stadium. Many supporters were outraged that their good name had been tarnished and wondered whether lax ticketing arrangements may have contributed.

A number of the most dedicated fans had refused to attend the Scotland game at all. They objected to the IFA's participation in a competition hosted by their near rivals, while the Republic continues to recruit players from Northern Ireland's youth teams.

In the past number of years, the FAI, which governs football in the south, has persuaded Northern Ireland underage players like Darron Gibson, Marc Wilson and Shane Duffy to defect and the Republic recently selected Adam Barton, a Preston-based midfielder who played a friendly match at Windsor Park just months before.

Now the eligibility issue has come to the fore again, after it emerged that the FAI is actively attempting to recruit Shane Ferguson, a regular in the Northern Ireland U21s who broke into Newcastle United's first XI this season. This boycott is much more than an angry reaction to the peculiar arrangements put in place for one match: it is a display of unity and defiance from the fans.

Their team suffers a disadvantage which is unique in world football, with FIFA decreeing that players born in Northern Ireland can play for either Irish squad.

The Republic is clearly determined to exploit this situation by plundering as many promising youngsters as it can from the IFA's youth set-up.

These players invariably come from the nationalist community, with the result that football apartheid is slowly beginning to be established in Ireland.

Northern Ireland supporters are often unjustly maligned, in spite of the huge strides made in recent years to make the terraces fun and inclusive. Every time Neil Lennon is targeted in Scotland, the death-threat which caused him to quit international football is dragged up.

And after abuse from internet Manchester United fans drummed Darron Gibson off Twitter, pundits were quick to blame the Green and White Army - without a scrap of evidence. By observing tonight's boycott, Northern Ireland supporters will register a dignified protest against what they consider a serious injustice. They will also show admirable determination to avoid simmering resentments creating a potential flash-point in Dublin.

Any incidents at a high-tension fixture would be a serious setback for the IFA and it's campaign to see 'Football for All'.

There may be disappointment that Northern Ireland supporters will not attend the first 'Irish derby' since 1999, but the fans' decision to stay at home - and their reasons for doing so - should be respected.

Owen Polley is a Northern Ireland supporter and blogger

Medvedev rolls them up and lets them down.

2011-05-18T17:53:00.001+01:00

When either the President or Prime Minister of Russia wants to emphasise their liberal credentials they head to Skolkovo. A business school, set to become heart of Moscow’s answer to Silicon Valley, it’s an emblem for the new Russia: educated, tech savvy, pro-business and punching its weight.

Something of a kerfuffle accompanied Dmitry Medvedev’s press conference, planned for Skolkovo this afternoon. There was some expectation that the President would declare his hand and announce whether he would run for a second term, in next year’s election.

The conference followed hot on the heals of the announcement that Mikhail Prokorov, currently Russia’s third wealthiest billionaire, would lead Right Cause, the pro-business party which has backed Medvedev for the presidency, into December’s state Duma election.

Interesting choreography, but the journalists who flocked to the Moscow Management School were disappointed. The President said that it is ‘too soon’ to announce his intentions, but the decision will come before long.

So, predictably, the speculation continues. Putin, Medvedev or even a third party, as suggested by the Centre for Political Information. Some commentators believe that the answer won’t come until December, after the result of the Duma elections.

Celebrate the Lyric - new jewel in Belfast's cultural crown.

2011-05-16T10:11:00.000+01:00

My column from Saturday's News Letter.

As last week’s election count ground on through Friday evening, I took a much needed break from the coverage to visit the reopened Lyric Theatre in Belfast. It’s been closed for the past year or so, as the old building was more or less rebuilt from the ground up and replaced by a gleaming, modern venue costing £18.1 million.

The Department of Culture, Arts and Lesiure stumped up about half of that total. A hefty price tag, but it seems to be money well spent.

The lack of sound-proofing at the old Lyric was a particular irritation, with the roar of traffic from Stranmillis Embankment, car alarms and the like constantly intruding on performances. Nothing quite explodes the illusion that you are in say, 7^th century Denmark, like the cheesy jingle of an ice cream van.

There are no such issues with the new theatre. The heavy wooden panels surrounding the auditorium insulate it perfectly from the outside world. The first production in the reopened building is Arthur Miller’s drama, The Crucible, and it looks great, on a state of the art stage, with clever lighting and a convincing set.

It is a good choice of play for election season too. Miller’s account of the Salem witch-hunts is full of political symbolism. It may have been written as an allegory for McCarthyism, when thousands of Americans were accused of being communists or communist sympathisers, but it has things to say about intolerance and hysteria which could equally be applied to Northern Ireland.

That’s a mark of good writing and good drama. It stays fresh and it has the power to make us re-examine our attitudes and assumptions, long after it was written, in a different country and a different context.

It’s a huge asset to Belfast to have a professional company which can really bring a play like The Crucible to life for audiences in Northern Ireland. And it’s important that the Players have a world class home like the new Lyric Theatre.

There’s a danger that when things get tight financially, cultural projects are always the ones which miss out on much needed resources. It’s often presented as if any money which culture does bag comes at the expense of hospitals or schools.

The Lyric’s reopening reminds us of the real value which the arts bring to our society and to the local economy. It is a stunning building, which will stage quality productions and act as a magnet for talented and creative people. That, in turn, will attract visitors to Belfast.

Without investment in facilities like the Lyric and the refurbished Ulster Museum, Northern Ireland’s tourist industry will struggle to grow. It’s all very well urging people to visit and spend money in our hotels and restaurants, but we’ve got to give them something to do while they’re here and to tell their friends and family about when they get home.

So, rather than resent every penny which is spent on the arts, let’s celebrate a new jewel in Belfast’s cultural crown and hope that many more are added in the future.

What would happen to the Brits if Scotland were independent?

2011-05-15T15:16:00.000+01:00

A nice column today from David Mitchell in today's Observer. The comedian skewers a neglected issue raised by the spectre of Scottish independence. How would us Brits feel, deprived of our country?

When I appeared on an episode of Question Time broadcast from Musselburgh, near Edinburgh, the issue of Scottish independence came up. One of my fellow panellists, the SNP deputy leader, Nicola Sturgeon, was at pains to make clear that her party had nothing against England and were admirers of that country.

What I didn't say in response, what I've kicked myself for not expressing ever since, was: "Yes but you've got it in for Britain. You may be happily in cahoots with the morris-dancing English and the Eisteddfod-organising Welsh, but my country, the Britain of London where I now live, of Swansea, my mother's home town where I spent a lot of time as a child, and of Galloway, where my paternal grandparents lived, is something you want to destroy. I'm British, I care about this and I've a hunch I'm not the only one."

I'm slightly embarrassed to admit to this British patriotism. The Scottish equivalent feels more politically correct, focused as it is on cultural distinctiveness and national self-determination. No Scottish state has existed for hundreds of years so, unlike Britain, its image is untainted by actions, by realpolitik and compromise, by the slave trade and colonialism. But a desire for Scottish independence is no more rational than a desire to preserve the union, so either both desires should be ignored or both taken into account.

I don't think I should get a vote in a referendum on Scottish independence – I understand why that's a decision that would have to be taken by those living in Scotland. Otherwise, it would be like calling a Europe-wide vote on whether the UK should adopt the euro.

Scotland's fate mustn't be decided by people who consider themselves to be primarily English, Welsh or Northern Irish. But I'm sad that, as a result, most of those whose emotional investment is in the union, we children of this potential divorce, won't have a say.
If Scotland ever goes it alone, those buoyed up as their sense of nationality gains accompanying sovereignty might take note of, and even fleetingly mourn, the fact that there are losers in that arrangement, too, and I'm not talking about oil revenues. The British will have lost their country.

It's not an unprecedented state of mind to which Mitchell refers. Many citizens of the former Yugoslavia, for instance, mourn their multi-national state and their multinational identity. Let's hope that there is no opportunity for a similar sense of loss in the United Kingdom. The Scots, Welsh, English and Irish nations can be accommodated within the UK in a way that is simply not possible the other way about.

Northern Ireland in Serbia - 4-4-2 Magazine

2011-05-04T13:32:00.001+01:00

Time for a little shameless self-promotion, because today is rather an exciting day for me.

Yes, we are on the eve of two elections and a referendum. Yes, Northern Ireland is ninety years old to the day. Yes, it’s Rory McIlroy’s birthday. All landmark events - but none quite so compelling for me personally as the publication of my first article in FourFourTwo magazine.

Let me explain. I grew up as a football mad kid on a diet of football magazines. You could map my development by these changing titles. From Roy of the Rovers I graduated to Shoot magazine, sneering at those who preferred its rival Match, which I considered far too lightweight.

Shoot was gradually supplanted by the edgier content of 90 Minutes, as I approached my teenage years. During adolescence I experimented with fanzine inspired monthly When Saturday Comes and the statto’s bible, World Soccer, but I was more often immersed in the glossy pages of FourFourTwo.

You can see the significance I’m sure.

Anyway the article is a four page feature on Northern Ireland fans’ trip to Serbia. The game was played in Belgrade, behind closed doors but with just over 200 away supporters in attendance.

June's issue is available now.

Mapping pro-Putin and pro-Medvedev Russia

2011-04-28T17:30:00.001+01:00

Will Putin or Medvedev contest next year's presidential election in Russia? The answer is by no means certain. Everything either man does at the moment is interpreted as pre-campaign manoeuvring.

To that end the New Times has sketched up an intriguing map showing pro Putin and pro Medvedev regions of Russia. It's all rather conjectural, but the speculation is rather fun.

It scores it 28 solid Putin regions to 14 for Medvedev. The remaining 41 regions are dominated by neither man. It must be said that the stats aren't based so much on voter intention as the administrative subtleties in each region.

Unionist Lite - thanks for the memories.

2011-04-21T16:48:00.000+01:00

I was shocked to check the blog A Pint of Unionist Lite this afternoon and discover that O'Neill is shutting down shop. It's a sad day for the unionist blogosphere. UL pre-existed this blog and it was one of the first politics sites, after Slugger, which I began to read regularly. I've also greatly enjoyed collaborating with O'Neill over the years and must thank him for all the help and encouragement. Let's hope he reconsiders, but if not, goodbye Unionist Lite and thanks for the memories. A great blog and a great blogger.

Dima lets his hair down.

2011-04-20T20:07:00.004+01:00

A defining image of 1990s Russia was President Yeltsin's vodka fuelled dancing and conducting. It was interpreted by many Russians as a national humiliation.

That didn't deter Dmitry Medvedev from 'shimmying' along to the song 'American Boy', which Google insists is performed by a singer called Estelle.

This being 2011, you don't have to be on a stage for cringey stuff to be relayed to the world. The President's dance was captured on mobile phone and it's fast becoming a Youtube classic.

Ignore the more demonstrative guy in the foreground - Dima is the little guy in the grey suit.

Much needed down time for Medvedev. Russia faces elections to the State Duma in December. They'll act as a barometer for the 2012 presidential poll. Whether the current incumbent even stands in that election, we must wait and see.

Alternative Vote doesn't have the X Factor

2011-04-19T20:22:00.000+01:00

It appears that the AV campaign is losing momentum, but there's still a danger that apathy could foist a voting system upon us for which there is precious little popular enthusiasm. In today's News Letter I argue the case against AV and (I'd imagine) show up my woeful ignorance of popular TV talent shows!

UNLIKE a majority of the population I don’t watch X Factor or Britain’s Got Talent. Though I’m led to believe the finals of these shows follow a time-honoured principle. In my opinion it’s rather a good one.

As I understand it, the viewers vote for their favourite act, all the votes are totalled and the performer who tops the poll is declared the winner. As simple as that. It’s a highly effective voting system: it gets the job done and, most importantly, it’s fair.

In this case, what works for light entertainment also works for politics. In the UK we use the First Past The Post (FPTP) system to decide Westminster elections. At the House of Commons each constituency is represented by just one member of parliament. So, when it comes to polling time, each elector casts a single vote for their preferred candidate and the person who claims most votes wins.

It mightn’t be very complicated, it mightn’t offer much for political anoraks to get their teeth into, but it works tremendously well. And it takes a particularly perverse brand of logic to conclude that the current system is anything other than scrupulously fair.

Still, that’s what the proponents of Alternative Vote (AV) must attempt to prove in the run up to May’s referendum on Westminster election reform.

We’ve got some experience of AV in Northern Ireland, where it operates in council and assembly by-elections. Effectively it’s the unloved cousin of Proportional Representation, allowing the voter to vote on down the ballot paper, rather than simply mark an X against his or her favourite candidate.

In multi-seat constituencies, where more than one winner is declared, that makes a certain amount of sense. In a single seat constituency it means that all the votes are counted and, unless someone has garnered at least 50 per cent of the total, the bottom candidate is eliminated. The second preference in all the ballots that were cast for the loser are then distributed among the remaining contenders. The process continues until the 50 per cent ceiling is breached and a winner can be declared.

The pro-AV lobby maintains that their system ensures everyone’s voice is heard at the ballot box. Actually it ensures that some people’s voices are heard more often than others and it’s likely to be the people with marginal or extreme views whose voices are heard most of all.

For much of the 20th century pro-democracy campaigners demanded ‘one person, one vote’. Under AV, if you plump for the most popular candidate you still get one vote. In contrast, in Great Britain, an extremist who casts their first choice for the BNP is likely to have their vote counted and recounted a number of times. In Northern Ireland it could be a dissident republican who gets a second, third or fourth opportunity to have their say.

Why on earth should one person’s fifth choice carry as much weight as another person’s first choice? It’s patently absurd and it will result in candidates who have come second or third in the poll overtaking more popular rivals and taking seats in parliament.

There are plenty of proportional voting systems in the world, the Northern Ireland Assembly being just one example, but only three countries use AV: Fiji, Australia and Papua New Guinea. That statistic cuts to the heart of the matter - AV imposes a proportional voting mechanism on an un-proportional parliamentary system.

Even its current proponents aren’t genuine enthusiasts. They see it as a transitional arrangement on the way to full PR. Unfortunately, if they get their way, we’ll have to live with a system which no-one wants. There is a debate to be had about the merits of PR as against FPTP, but AV is nobody’s baby.

The Liberal Democrat, Roy Jenkins, assessed AV in a report for Tony Blair’s government back in 1998. He was forced to acknowledge that it is “even less proportional” than the current Westminster system. He also conceded that it could make the outcome of elections “dangerously unpredictable”. Now his party mates advocate AV as a great advance for the UK’s constitution.

It’s not a great advance. AV tinkers needlessly with a system which works perfectly well already. It’s a brainchild of politicians, for which there is no real demand. The big danger is that people won’t be sufficiently motivated to get out and vote against it, simply because they see only an obscure debate taking place around an obscure new election method.

But the referendum does matter, because the clarity and fairness of our electoral system is at risk. No amount of warped logic can win the day for AV but apathy just might.

Slow blogging

2011-04-08T22:43:00.005+01:00

Forgive the relative silence over the past few days. I've taken on some new commitments which are mitigating against frequent posts. Normal(ish) service will hopefully be resumed sooner rather than later.

Slick or bland? The DUP's party promo.

2011-04-04T17:05:00.000+01:00

The events in Omagh on Saturday rather put petty party-political squabbles into perspective. Still, our electoral wheels turn, regardless of the futile, nihilistic violence which subsists at the edges of our society.

Over at Slugger, Mick preview’s the DUP’s 2011 election broadcast. Like any party promo it’s ripe for parody. DR points out the resemblance to a DIY store advert and the puzzling detail that its two stars are apparently getting up at 3 minutes past eight in the evening, in order to do a spot of decorating.

These quibbles aside, no-one would deny that it’s a slick production but in my opinion it’s also a trifle bland. There’s the predictable ’unionist unity’ sting in the tail but in keeping with the party’s ’modern’ image it‘s a little coy. More “nudge, nudge, wink, wink” than “smash Sinn Féin”.

When the customer doesn't always know best.

2011-04-02T10:31:00.001+01:00

In a News Letter column I argue that health can't be treated in the same way as other products and services if it is provided for free.

Whichever way you spin it, choosing a treatment from a hospital is not the same as choosing a product from a shop. If healthcare is just another part of the market, it is one sphere where the customer is not always right. No-one wants a return to the days of overbearing, uncommunicative doctors, but the philosophy of patient choice can be taken too far, particularly when the taxpayer picks up the tab.

A patient led service, where GPs are under pressure to provide the treatments people want, rather than those that they need, has its pitfalls. Thanks to the internet, we already have a whole generation prepared to second guess the advice of doctors, on the basis of their own spurious researches.

The NHS currently has some protection against the pressure of unscientific opinion and popular campaigning. The National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), among other tasks, assesses whether drugs are cost effective or not. Its role as an arbiter could be undermined if consortia are under pressure to provide, for example, costly cancer medication which may add just a few weeks to a terminally ill patient’s life.

There are already treatments and services, like homeopathy or female sterilisation, which the NHS offers against the prevailing wisdom of doctors, simply because the public demands them.

The government must be careful that its policies don’t encourage more waste, when the goal should be to eliminate services whose value is doubtful.

Patients must be properly informed about their healthcare choices, but it’s also important that doctors and the NHS are independent enough to withstand the latest fads and free to exercise their judgement on which treatments are worthwhile.

Duke Snook-em! Ulster music star "Freewheels" into pro snooker.

2011-04-01T08:42:00.002+01:00

Ken Doherty - like a Duke without dreadlocks.

A bit of a curious story this morning. The Belfast based singer, Duke Special, is to forsake his piano for the green baize. The forty year old, whose real name is Peter Wilson, has joined the professional snooker circuit.

"I've long been an enthusiast for the game", said Wilson, "and over the past few months music has become less and less fun. It's time to try something new".

The performer, best known for his album Songs From the Deep Forest and his energetic stage shows, is not new to snooker. He was crowned Northern Ireland junior champion in 1988 and is still a dab hand with the cue.

"My top break in competitive matches is 135", confirmed the star from Dundonald, "and I regularly get 147s in practice". The Duke hasn't ruled out a return to music however, "this is a change in direction, and I'm giving up music for a while, but not necessarily for good".

Watch out Mark Allen and Ronnie O'Sullivan!

Feldman pledges to back Conservatives in Northern Ireland.

2011-03-31T15:02:00.007+01:00

Andrew Feldman, the Conservative chairman, visited Bangor yesterday to open the party’s new campaign headquarters. He subsequently addressed a dinner in North Down, setting out the Tories’ plans in Northern Ireland, in a speech which should boost morale among local activists.

Feldman made significant assurances to Conservatives here. The Northern Ireland party wants to be treated just like it would in any other region of the United Kingdom - last night the chairman pledged to do just that and to ensure that local Tories have “the tools to succeed”.

His motives have been questioned elsewhere, but let’s be blunt: if Conservative Central Office had any intention of cutting Northern Ireland Conservatives adrift it wouldn’t sink more time and resources into the organisation here.

Yet Feldman opened the new office and pledged to staff it with a full time employee paid for by CCHQ. The new staff member will report to one of the party’s most senior campaign directors and access the Conservatives’ state of the art campaign resources.

That’s a serious commitment. It certainly isn’t a sentimental concession designed to placate loyal members in North Down. Politics isn’t a sentimental business and if the Conservative party centrally wasn’t dedicated to building up its profile in Northern Ireland, it would simply get out and stay out.

In the interim, Feldman spelled out what he expects from local activists. The party needs to grow its membership and its organisation on the ground. Northern Ireland is expected to play its part in a nationwide recruitment drive.

A sustained attempt to build from the ground up seems like good stout common sense and it should help ensure a solid platform to stand candidates in future elections.

There’s not a shadow of doubt that David Cameron’s unionism is genuine or that the ’one nation’ approach he brings to politics throughout the UK is still in evidence. There’s obviously been a debate within the Conservative Party about how best to bring mainstream British politics to Northern Ireland. Despite the vagaries of the debate and the frustrations of UCUNF the Tories are still determined to realise that goal.

Feldman’s visit and the tenor of his speech is a clear signal of that continued commitment. There is absolutely no obligation on the Conservative Chairman to visit Northern Ireland to rally troops for “the future of the party in this great part of the United Kingdom”.

UCUNF may be dead, but it appears that the ideals behind it are alive and kicking.

Never a dull moment with the UUP

2011-03-30T14:17:00.004+01:00

A rather hectic week last week prevented me from commenting on the UUP’s nightmare start to the election campaign. When Thursday started with high profile stories of a sex scandal and a resignation splashed across the newspapers Tom Elliott could hardly have expected the day to get worse. Cometh the hour, cometh McNarry, who decided to tear into Basil McCrea and John McCallister, live on the Nolan Show.

The pair had deviated from their leader’s view on Martin McGuinness and the First Minister’s position. In league with North Belfast MLA, Fred Cobain, Elliott suggested to Liam Clarke that the UUP might form a single Assembly group with the DUP, after the election, in order to prevent Sinn Féin taking the top spot. It was, he assured us, both possible and legal. McCrea and McCallister begged to differ, insisting that unionists should simply accept the result of the election.

It’s quite a merry-go-round for the Ulster Unionists. The leader surprises leading figures within his own party by announcing controversial policy through the pages of the Belfast Telegraph - the miffed 'liberals' respond by contradicting him on live radio - McNarry rings in to deliver one of his trademark rants. If there are other parties for which this type of thing happens, they are few and far between.

Elliott seems to be adopting a curious leadership style whereby he throws the liberals in his party a bone, then announces something to mollify the hard-liners. Hence we had the talk about opposition and agreeing a programme for government before forming the Executive followed by fulminating about McGuinness and suggesting that UUP ministers will form a bloc with the DUP. The problem is that the positions are often completely incompatible.

O’Neill neatly summarises the result. The DUP is now coasting towards topping another Assembly poll without any hindrance from the Ulster Unionists. Peter Robinson need only keep a steady ship.

The UUP will certainly be about after the next election, they have too many MLAs with personal followings for it to be otherwise, but the party will do exceptionally well to avoid losing ground. And as a collective the Ulster Unionists are widely perceived as more hapless and divided than ever before.

There’s nothing to suggest that the new Assembly will witness a more purposeful, coherent force. If anything Elliott is sowing the seeds of more dissent, more acrimony and possibly more defections, with his confused policy positions.

One thing we can say about the UUP - watching it and reading about it is rarely dull. If the party does disappear at some point during the next ten years there will be a cracking book to be written about its slow suicide.

No Plan B for Northern Ireland as Nigel looks to burgle Slovenes again.

2011-03-29T14:38:00.004+01:00

My personal trip to Serbia turned into something of an epic, thanks to travel complications. Via seven airports, five delays and six flights, though, I finally made it back. Tonight it’s Northern Ireland vs. Slovenia in a match which could signal a premature end to our qualification hopes.

The match in Belgrade posed more questions about Nigel Worthington’s future. Fans questioned his choice of personnel before the game had even started, but it was the tactical decisions (or lack thereof) during play which were fatal.

Northern Ireland took a 1-0 lead, after unexpectedly dominating the first half. Rather than press home the advantage the team reverted to the slow, negative approach which the manager so clearly favours.

Worthington was unfortunate that Lafferty had to be replaced by David Healy at half-time. But he chose not to give the striker more support and he refused to make changes as his players became pinned back by wave after wave of Serbian attacks.

In the end the 2-1 defeat seemed inevitable. The younger players whom Worthington had selected drifted out of the game badly, but the manager let them struggle on regardless. It was the classic example of a team without any plan B.

That will be a problem again at Windsor Park. Already it looks likely that Northern Ireland will line up looking desperately lightweight up front. Warren Feeney is expected to start and although he has showed excellent work-rate and an eye for goal in the past, his career and fitness are both in doubt. As a lone striker graft on its own is not likely to be enough.

During Slovenia’s last visit to Windsor Park the visitors dominated the match, but failed to show a cutting edge. Likewise, in Maribor last Autumn, the Slovenes squandered chance after chance and succumbed to a late Corey Evans goal.

Northern Ireland must hope that their luck against Slovenia holds. It’ll probably be another dour performance and the best we can hope for is a scrambled goal and lots of last gasp defending.

Minister McCausland continues his 'Kulturkampf'.

2011-03-24T09:03:00.000Z

With a Conservative / Liberal coalition government in place at Westminster, hands-off government is in vogue in London. Not so in Belfast.

Here there are few more hands-on Executive members than Nelson McCausland. His conception of the work of a culture minister is more in tune with a 1930s dictatorship than a liberal democracy in 2011.

Fresh from telling the Ulster Museum which history it should reflect in its collection and how much swearing should take place in the theatre, the minister intensifies his ‘Kulturkampf’ by demanding that Belfast Festival change its programme.

No such difficulties for McCausland’s chosen projects. It’s a golden age for the Ulster Scot and only two days ago his department published a document promoting marching bands. Talk about the silo mentality and ministers’ fiefdoms!

The latest intervention by McCausland asks for more pro-Israeli views at the Belfast Festival at Queens and “some southern gospel music”. I wonder how exactly the minister would define his remit. He seems to think its his job to tell people what their culture is.

Government responsive on Corporation Tax issue.

2011-03-23T14:32:00.002Z

The chancellor of the exchequer is still in the House of Commons defending his budget statement. One of the eye catching measures announced by George Osborne this afternoon is an additional 1% cut in corporation tax, aimed at stimulating growth, on top of the 1% which was already planned. In order to signal that Britain is ’open for business’ the rate will also fall in the succeeding three years, reaching 23% in 2014.

Appropriately enough, just before the budget debate, Owen Paterson announced that the consultation paper on devolving corporation tax raising powers to Northern Ireland will be published tomorrow. It’s argued that we are peculiarly disadvantaged when it comes to attracting international investment, because our near neighbours in the Irish Republic enjoy a CT rate of just 12.5%.

The Secretary of State has long championed the idea that the Stormont Assembly should be allowed to cut taxes in order to make Northern Ireland a more competitive destination for business. The initiative is very much the Conservatives’ “baby”, with local parties blowing hot and cold on the issue.

Our current crop of politicians may yet decide to reject an opportunity to stimulate the economy. In the short term, tax receipts are likely to fall and Sammy Wilson has put on record his scepticism about making up the shortfall. Any decision to devolve the tax could also spark controversy in other UK regions.

No-one can deny that Paterson and the government have gone the extra mile in an attempt to help Northern Ireland help itself. There are powerful arguments around the rights and wrongs of varying taxes within a single state, however, if CT is devolved, it’s an impressive response to the unique demands of our economy and a show of political pragmatism.

Business spelt out the unique problems facing Northern Ireland and it looks like the government has listened. We'll soon see whether local politicians want to be handed responsibilities and opportunities or whether they just want to be nannied.

Opposition prospects.

2011-03-22T13:47:00.000Z

Another note to point you in the direction of an article published elsewhere. In this month's AgendaNI magazine I sum up the debate around an opposition in the Assembly.

Budget 'buddies' squaring up for six week sham fight.

2011-03-21T08:51:00.001Z

My column from Friday's Irish News (not online).

In seven days time the assembly will dissolve ahead of May’s election. That means anyone who’d got used to the current cuddly relationship between the DUP and Sinn Féin will have to readjust.

For a six week period the parties will inhabit only one of Northern Ireland’s parallel political realities. It used to be known as normality. It’s a place where the ‘budget buddies’ are implacable foes.

So where a week or two ago, he was lauding Caitriona Ruane and Conor Murphy for their prowess in the executive, DUP leader Peter Robinson will claim he’s the man to halt Sinn Féin in its tracks. His colleague in the first minister’s office, Martin McGuinness, will cease being a responsible partner in government and resume his role as chief menace to loyal Ulster.

Meanwhile the Shinners will stop acting like Sammy Wilson‘s backing chorus. Instead we’ll hear a lot about the “united Ireland project” which is rolling forward with irresistible momentum thanks to Sinn Féin.

They’ll hark back to the hunger strikes, whose anniversary coincides with polling day. We might even hear again about the “re-conquest of Ireland”; a phrase coined by Gerry Adams to describe his party’s 3.4% swing in the Republic’s general election.

Sinn Féin will tempt nationalists with the prospect of beating the DUP into second place and nominating a first minister, with unimaginable consequences for Northern Ireland. The DUP will drive its campaign with the threat that Sinn Féin could become the biggest party and nominate a first minister, with unimaginable consequences for Northern Ireland.

It’s a mutually beneficial relationship, powered by the fear and loathing it inspires in voters. This year it will be turbo-charged by the notion that Sinn Féin can expect a ’bounce’ after its relative success in the Irish election.

No-one is keener to foster that idea than Sinn Féin itself, but with the DUP likely to buy into it too, it could become a self-fulfilling prophesy. In many respects the northern campaign kicked off immediately after the election count in Louth, with Adams posturing and preening for the cameras.

Admittedly Sinn Féin had reason to celebrate, but against the background of Fianna Fail’s implosion, its share of the spoils was hardly overwhelming. Adams et al achieved moderate success, by surfing anti-establishment feeling and barely mentioning the North.

FF, with its strong nationalist credentials, was decimated, yet the vast bulk of voters fled to parties traditionally less preoccupied with the border. Hardly evidence for a resurgence of old style republicanism, still less an important victory for an “all-Ireland project” or a “re-conquest of Ireland”.

Indeed prevailing wisdom in the Republic holds that if Adams’ old style anti-partition politics come to the fore in the Dail, rather than the party’s younger generation, Sinn Féin will struggle to build upon a decent electoral platform.

The party’s seasoned northern hands were wily enough to make hay while the sun shone nonetheless. All that stuff about conquests and advancing the all-Ireland cause is aimed primarily at northern rather than southern voters. And it finds no more receptive audience than the DUP.

On the Monday morning after the Irish poll, with some counts still continuing, the unionist party unveiled its candidate list for the assembly election. It was accompanied by the predictable dour warnings that a Sinn Féin First Minister would hand republicans a propaganda victory and the DUP’s doomsday scenario that Martin McGuinness could take the top spot and refuse to meet the Queen.

The fact that the two parties often work together like a single unit in the Assembly isn‘t mentioned. No matter, either, that their MLAs and ministers forged a genuine alliance during the three months it took to pass the budget from its draft stage.

The paradoxes don’t end there. If Sinn Féin does get a ‘bounce’ it will come from an election where it acted principally as a vehicle for protest. Here the party’s robust defence of an austerity budget firmly entrenches it within a new political establishment.

The DUP will play the Martin McGuinness card for all its worth, yet simultaneously talk up its record of cooperation in government, brandishing novel liberal credentials for the benefit of moderate unionists, .

It’s an irony that the two parties are just as interdependent fighting an election as poisonous enemies, as they are acting like cosy colleagues and passing legislation at Stormont. That may infuriate opponents - but the DUP and Sinn Féin show every sign of continuing to juggle their contradictions successfully.

Budget wrangle brings opposition closer.

2011-03-18T11:37:00.000Z

Sorry for the slow blogging this week. Part of the reason was a trip to watch Liverpool succumb to FC Braga in the Europa League. Anything must be cheerier than that, even Northern Ireland politics, and in that spirit I direct you toward my piece in Wednesday's Belfast Telegraph. I argue that, with de facto opposition developing at Stormont, sooner or later the institutions will have to change.

The contours of an opposition to the de facto coalition between Sinn Fein and the DUP are already taking shape. Outside Stormont the two larger parties pose as the bitterest of enemies, but in the Assembly chamber and around the Executive table they often act as one.

During the Budget debate MLA after MLA rose to chastise the SDLP or accuse the UUP of complicity in "Tory cuts". The only way to tell Sinn Fein from DUP was the "cÃºpla focal" of Irish deployed by the Shinners.

Across the Assembly the smaller parties looked embattled, huddling together against a tongue-lashing from Wilson and his supporters. It was raw, angry politics, but it was democracy in action nonetheless.

With the UUP and the SDLP still considering their positions in the Executive, there is an intriguing possibility that the system at Stormont may change by default.

It appears the Assembly is evolving opposition politics, whether there is consensus on tinkering with the institutions or not. Sinn Fein and the DUP represent a majority of voters in Northern Ireland and they're entitled to force through decisions on that basis. It's up to other parties to point out where their policies are flawed and advocate credible alternatives.

It's become increasingly apparent during the Budget wrangle that the UUP and SDLP are already acting like an opposition. The structures should be put in place to let them do that job properly.

Two parties are now thoroughly marginalised within an Executive effectively operating as a coalition between Sinn Fein and the DUP, with Alliance a willing junior partner. Whether they pull their ministers out now, or encourage them to hang on until the election, the UUP and SDLP must still present an alternative to DUP/Sinn Fein-led government. The debate about an opposition at Stormont rages on, but things are already moving in that direction. Sooner or later the formalities will be put in place and our politics will be the healthier for it.

Politics at Stormont slowly coming to the fore.

2011-03-14T08:51:00.001Z

In Friday's News Letter I contributed a column on the budget debate to the paper's Political Review. If you can stomach the scarily detailed headshot (seriously guys - invest in some serious airbrushing technology!) it's now online.

Towards the end of the article I consider the upshot of the debate.

Michael McGimpsey and Danny Kennedy, the UUP’s executive members, voted explicitly against the budget. Alex Attwood, the SDLP’s social development minister, simply absented himself from the chamber, in order to avoid breaking the assembly’s ministerial code.

It’s an odd way of doing business. But then the system of government in Northern Ireland is a strange system. On the one hand the smaller parties say their voices aren’t heard in the supposed five-party coalition.

On the other hand, the larger parties claim that the UUP and SDLP are prepared to accept the trappings of power, but refuse to take responsibility for taking the difficult decisions.

Neither argument is without merit. But ironically it is the black cloud of recession which might offer a silver lining for Stormont.

Since the financial crisis, the old sectarian wrangles have receded into the background, while the economy — the focus of normal politics — has taken centre stage.

The budget exchanges at Stormont were venomous and they expose some deep political divisions, but for once those divisions aren’t along traditional lines.

The debate was certainly a depressing spectacle at times. There were some poor quality speeches and our parties are still desperately confused about where they stand on the left — right spectrum.
Still, while the parties inevitably resort to age-old antipathies come election time, there are new interests and alliances coming to the fore in the assembly.

Something resembling real politics is threatening to break out. The power-sharing structures may soon need to change in order to catch up.

No whitewash here ...

2011-03-11T22:43:00.005Z

So that's the Robinsons' rehabilitation completed then. More than a year after it was begun. Policing and Justice devolved, Peter Robbo and his mates preserved. All is well in Northern Ireland. Sleep well.

The budget and stadium construction. Put those celebrations on hold.

2011-03-11T12:08:00.003Z

The very future of international football in Northern Ireland has been in doubt in recent years, thanks to a crumbling stadium at Windsor Park in Belfast. The local league has also suffered, with inadequate facilities falling foul of health and safety requirements. One of the few pieces of good news in the budget is that money has been set aside to improve sports venues in Northern Ireland.

The headline amount is £138 million, with GAA and rugby union getting £61.4m and £15m respectively. Football is also set to claim a £61.4 million share.

The IFA has released a statement welcoming its allocation and, in difficult economic times, securing funding to renovate Windsor Park and other grounds is a result, but the Association should be aware that the figures require a bit of exploration.

Firstly, the aspiration is to give football £61.4 million over six years, rather than the four years covered by the budget. The figures reveal (PDF) that it will come on stream slowly, with sport as a whole receiving only £11.8 million in capital spend next year.

That will rise to £69.8 million in 2014 - 15. Only £133 million in total is allocated over the four year budget period. Not all of that money will be poured into the "big three" sports‘ stadium plans.

Secondly, the whole of football’s share is not on firm foundations. The presumption is that the full allocation for rugby and GAA stadiums is allotted during this four year period, as is the £25million required to refurbish Windsor Park. The balance required to complete football’s ’regional stadiums’ then needs to be found in the following four years’ budget. I’d not be treating that as if it were money in the bank just yet, if I were the IFA.

Supposing it receives the full sum and can complete the work on budget, the Association will be required to divvy up its money among deserving projects. Rather surprisingly, the IFA does have a strategy document which lays out its priorities.

Its objective is to develop Windsor Park as a national stadium and in addition provide six regional facilities, three with a capacity 6,000 or more and three with a capacity of 4,000 or more. These would be distributed, two apiece, across three roughly defined geographical areas: Greater Belfast, Mid Ulster and the North West.

As it stands, the IFA’s priority, after Windsor Park, is to develop a stadium in East Belfast, which will house Glentoran FC, further develop the Coleraine Showgrounds and Shamrock Park in Portadown and establish a National Training Centre.

Reportedly, some of the money will also go to Derry City Council in order to build a new stadium. That could prove contentious, as it will house Derry City, who play in the Republic’s League of Ireland rather than the IFA's Irish League and who have had a chequered financial past (to say the least).

Football and the other sports are entitled to be relieved that their stadium plans have not been wiped out by the economic crisis. Though the IFA, in particular, shouldn’t celebrate too heartily just yet. It still has a difficult task ahead to ensure that Northern Irish football and the international team emerge with decent facilities and a hopeful future.

The art of saying something and nothing.

2011-03-10T15:58:00.000Z

UCUNF is dead says Tom Elliott. Tell us something we don't know Tom. He's already made it perfectly clear that the UUP will stand under its own banner in forthcoming elections. So what's new?

Well the Ulster Unionist leader's relationship with the Secretary of State has deteriorated, after Owen Paterson declined to change the mechanism for nominating the First Minister. Other than that - not much.

Jim Nicholson is still part of the Conservative group at the European Parliament. There are few complications with Lord Empey acting as a Tory peer, now that he will not run for the Ulster Unionists at Stormont. And the whole troublesome topic of taking a whip at Westminster can be deferred for another few years.

Budget debate rages on.

2011-03-09T15:10:00.001Z

I've been dipping in and out of the budget debate at Stormont today. A vote will take place some time later this evening. Meanwhile both the SDLP and the UUP have proposed amendments to the Finance Minister's figures.

The Ulster Unionist suggested reallocation amounts to an extra £165 million for health in the first year of the budget. It would be interesting to know whether there are any negotiations taking place outside the chamber. Can we consider that the price-tag for UUP votes?

No to normalisation from First Ministers,

2011-03-08T13:34:00.000Z

So the DUP and Sinn Féin are ‘furious’ (to use the journalistese) that David Cameron won’t constantly listen to their special pleading. They're learning that this is a hands-off Prime Minister who allows his ministers to run their own departments, hence the government's go to man in Northern Ireland is Secretary of State, Owen Paterson.

Ed Miliband, who visited yesterday, claims in contrast that he would operate an “open door” policy (revolving door?) for Stormont’s top politicos. Mark Devenport points out that the Labour leader is not so quick to communicate with his own supporters in Northern Ireland. When David Cameron comes here, his followers are the first to know.

The chief difference is that Cameron always visits, in part, as an active Conservative politician seeking backing for his party and its allies in this part of the United Kingdom. That doesn't make us exceptional enough for quasi-statesmen like Peter Robinson or Martin McGuinness.

Drop the ill-conceived sports' section of the Justice Bill.

2011-03-07T16:14:00.003Z

The Assembly is set to consider the Justice Bill again today, once Edwin Poots is done thrilling members with the latest instalment on High Hedges. Previously, when David Ford’s draft went before the Committee for Culture, Arts and Leisure, it became apparent that Part 4 of the Bill, which covers sport, is unfit for purpose.

I previously pointed out that David McNarry, while he couched it in typically inflated, sectarian terms, had a valid point when he argued that football should not be the sole focus of sections on ticket touts and banning orders.

GAA, football and rugby clubs around the country have also been alarmed by the sections on alcohol at sporting events. It’s been pointed out that the legislation would not simply cover the pesky aggressive louts whom the authorities want to stop drinking - it would also put an end to ANY corporate hospitality at sports venues and punch a massive hole in many clubs’ business models.

Ulster Rugby has been particularly vocal, voicing its concern that rugby at Ravenhill will be unsustainable without bar receipts and entertaining. The Ulster Branch recently invested heavily in a new grandstand to house corporate guests.

The response from the IFA and football clubs generally has been, predictably, less organised and coherent. Though the SDLP's Declan O’Loan did raise the issue of very well run “corporate dinners” which one Irish League club uses successfully to supplement its income. It’s difficult to see what earthly purpose could be served by preventing such an event from taking place.

A hastily drafted clause intended to prevent sectarian or political chanting has already been dropped. It seems that the entire sports section of the Bill was lifted straight from old GB legislation, with little or no thought to the consequences.

Perhaps its time for the Justice Minister to drop Part 4 of his bill in its entirety. The UUP's East Antrim candidate, Rodney McCune, pointed out below the previous thread that the test for any legislation is necessity. He's justified in claiming that David Ford has failed to satisfy that test.

Opposition politics already evolving at the Assembly.

2011-03-04T14:33:00.003Z

So what did we learn from this morning’s Budget debate at the Assembly? Not much in concrete terms. We know that the Finance Minister claims (PDF) he has found an extra £120 million for health and £150 million for education, but the UUP and SDLP are still sceptical about the figures.

From a broader perspective one thing is certainly clear. The contours of an Opposition to the de facto coalition at Stormont are already taking shape. The exchanges in the chamber this morning, tattered and fractious though they were, looked a lot like a Budget Statement debate at Westminster.

The core of the Executive, Sinn Féin and the DUP, bummed up Sammy Wilson’s speech as best they could. It was, after all, their programme which was revealed to the Assembly. The UUP and SDLP scrambled to grasp the detail and respond, for the time being managing to land few blows.

In a so-called five party coalition it looks like dysfunction, in a voluntary coalition it looks a bit like normal politics. The opposition listens to the Finance Minister’s statement, having had the details presented as a fait accompli only hours before, and then sets about drilling down into the figures and poking holes in the spin.

The DUP and Sinn Féin might pose as the bitterest of enemies, but we’ve witnessed on many occasions how they can act as one in the Assembly chamber. This morning MLA after MLA from the two parties rose to chastise the SDLP and accuse the UUP of culpability for “Tory cuts”.

The Alliance Party, still pathetically grateful for its gerrymandered ministry, suggests that the smaller unionist and nationalist parties should put up and shut up by leaving the Executive. On one level this is seriously ironic - both are entitled to ministers under d’Hondt, while Alliance is not.

On another it makes perfect sense. Let the DUP and Sinn Féin suck the life-blood out of their APNI fig-leaf. Get on with doing the job you’ve already been edged into doing but do it wholeheartedly and well.

If the coming election were fought on a truthful basis the electorate’s choice would be self-evident. Keep the current DUP-Sinn Féin coalition, or vote for the UUP and SDLP, in order to encourage them to form an alternative government.

Instead we’ll have a charade where this morning’s bosom buddies will tear each other to shreds. The DUP will urge voters to marginalise Sinn Féin - it's de facto ally. It’s a nonsense and with every passing year it becomes yet clearer that it’s a nonsense.

There is already a governing coalition in place and, although the UUP and SDLP have ministries, they’re not part of it. The smaller parties are increasingly acting like an Opposition.

Opposition politics are already evolving at Stormont. The formalities are not yet in place, but that's the way things are moving.

Happy birthday Gorby - fitting recognition as President Medvedev decorates Gorbachev,

2011-03-03T14:36:00.005Z

Yesterday Mikhail Gorbachev celebrated his eightieth birthday. The architect of reform in the former Soviet Union is the epitome of a ‘prophet not without honour, except in his own country‘. Feted in the rest of the world for dismantling the apparatus of a totalitarian state, he is a marginal figure in Russia.

There are signs, though, that his contribution is beginning to be recognised. In the Manezh Central Exhibition Hall in Moscow, within spitting distance of the Kremlin’s walls, an exhibition of photographs, ‘Mikhail Gorbachev: Perestroika’, charts his career and political evolution.

More significantly Gorbachev was awarded Russia’s highest national honour to mark his birthday. President Medvedev decorated the former Soviet leader with the Order of St Andrew. Medvedev spoke about the ’immense labour’ Gorbachev contributed to Russia and the USSR at a ’difficult and dramatic time’.

Elsewhere commentators are using the occasion to reflect upon Mikhail Sergeyevich’s legacy. In Novaya Gazeta, which Gorby part owns, Lilia Shevtsova argues that in recent times “only one leader - Gorbachev - determined the long-term history of the global order”. At oD Russia, Archie Brown hails a politician whose “open mind” took him on a journey from communism to social democracy.

“Let God, history and Gorbachev himself judge his failings”, implores Konstantin von Eggert in a Ria Novosti column, “his achievements are monumental”. Even those who disagree with him, von Eggert observes, acknowledge that Russia’s greatest living statesman is honest.

In another lengthy feature on the Ria Novosri site Nikolai Troitsky is more ambivalent about Gorbachev’s achievements. “His reforms actually caused the collapse of the country”, Troitsky says - echoing the misgivings of many of his countrymen, but he continues, “thanks to his efforts, freedom was given room to flourish”.

Meanwhile, the Moscow Times notes that there “are several aspects [of Gorbachev’s career] worthy of emulation by Russia’s current leadership”. The liberal paper, aimed at the Russian capital‘s expat community, recommends modern “perestroika” for the economy and a new spirit of glasnost among the country’s politicians.

The man himself also continues to advocate reform. He urges greater freedom and fairness in State Duma elections due to take place next December. And although he claims to like both Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin personally, he hopes Putin will not consider a third term as President, once Medvedev’s current spell elapses in 2012.

Of all the charges levelled at Gorbachev, the most unjust is that he is merely a relic of communism, who set out to tweak the Soviet system and ended up unleashing forces which he could not resist or understand. The former President of the USSR was no powerless bureaucrat, he was a genuine reformer whose vision evolved as events unfolded.

It was fitting that he received recognition from Medvedev, a man who some argue represents the better instincts of the current Kremlin regime. The President frequently emphasises the importance of encouraging business and entrepreneurship in an orderly environment governed by the rule of law, while Gorbachev started the tentative process of granting enterprises’ independence and permitting private ownership, back in the late 1980s. Medvedev pays lip-service to the merits of an open press, while Gorby owns an opposition newspaper. They both talk about freer and fairer elections as a mark of progress.

There is understandable reticence, some differences and neither man wants to get too cosy, but there is a continuum there. It’s fitting that Dmitry Medvedev showed his respect for a worthy forbear and wished Mikhail Sergeyevich happy birthday in style.

i confused!

2011-03-02T11:06:00.009Z

The Independent's brief i (there I did it) newspaper has been available in Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks now. It's a decent stab at a quality paper in digestible form.

It must be said though that the Independent sometimes takes the breath away with its lazy and ill-informed coverage of Irish politics, north and south. Compact cousin doesn't look like it's going to be much better. Take today's 'Opinion Matrix', which compiles comment on selected stories, from 'home and abroad'.

Under a caption, "Ireland's long road to prosperity", the paper notes, "The past few years have been appalling for Ireland's economy. Could recent elections provide a much needed fillip?".

Now although the paper erroneously refers to the whole of Ireland, we're talking the Republic here. After all, that's where the election just took place.

So which commentary does i choose to reproduce?

"Sustainable peace will require years of focused work by the Assembly and Executive. But we must set the direction and invest resources for the development of civic society. The draft budget should be adjusted to recognise the interconnectedness between prosperity and creating a stable society. We need a Programme for Government and a Budget in which building a peaceful society is a central theme. Some things just don't go away you know."

That is Duncan Morrow's commentary on the Stormont budget for Northern Ireland, as printed in Monday's Belfast Telegraph. But then you'd already worked out it wasn't talking about the other part of Ireland!

I do enjoy the Independent and I was enjoying i. But you can't help wonder about some of the paper's other content, when it gets things close to home so wrong. Not so long ago the Independent ascribed a loyalist pipe bomb attack in Antrim to Republicans, so this isn't a single lapse by any means.

Empey won't double job after all - UUP keeps the moral high-ground.

2011-03-02T08:41:00.001Z

When the UUP included Lord Empey on its candidate list for the Assembly election I accused the party of attempting to wriggle out of commitments on double mandates on a technicality. Eamonn Mallie reports that the former Ulster Unionist leader will not now contest his seat in East Belfast. He notes "Reg Empey has set the bar on double-jobbing". You can't say fairer than that. Credit to the UUP for doing the right thing in this instance and taking the moral high-ground.

Libyans need only look to NATO's "successful" operation in Yugoslavia to prove intervention isn't needed.

2011-03-01T16:24:00.013Z

What a month to debate military intervention in another country’s affairs! The 24th of March marks the twelfth anniversary of NATO bombing Yugoslavia. The supposed success of that mission buoyed the interventionists, inspired Tony Blair and set the scene for a bloody decade to come.

Now the Gaddafi regime is proving resistant to concerted internal opposition to remove it and peaceful western pressure for it to go. Yesterday David Cameron asked his Ministry of Defence to draw up plans for a “no fly zone” in Libya, which could prevent the Colonel bombing his enemies. It’s not Belgrade 1999, but the rhetoric about not “standing idly by” has a similar ring. Nick Robinson asks whether this could be "Cameron's first war".

No wonder some Libyans are nervous. They need only look at Iraq to see the possible costs of western “help“. The debate still rages as to whether the country is better off, now that its bloodthirsty dictator has been removed and replaced by foreign soldiers and a political vacuum.

Never mind Iraq, the Yugoslav bombings are still cited as the model for successful intervention: even though they were disastrous for Serbia, Kosovo and the wider Balkan region. The only genuine winners were politicians in NATO countries whose reputations were given a short-term boost.

While the explicit intention of Operation Allied Force was humanitarian, it quickly turned into a bombardment designed to bring down the Milosevic government. Its brutal tactic was to destroy Serbia and make normal life untenable for the population, in order to force “regime change”,

As a predictable consequence, in Kosovo, the protection of whose population was the ostensible aim of the bombing, the Yugoslav army’s anti-insurgency tactics turned into all out ethnic cleansing. The Balkan refugee crisis became incomparably worse.

In Serbia proper, NATO unleashed indirect chemical warfare, deliberately targeting factories, oil-refineries and similar targets; a tactic outlawed by the Geneva conventions. Cluster bombs peppered the Serb countryside, resulting in deaths and maiming civilians.

The attack's environmental and economic cost was felt far beyond the former Yugoslavia. As oil from bombed refineries poured into the Danube, the wider region suffered. Romania's struggling economy alone lost an estimated £1 billion - an astronomical sum for that country at the time.

And of course the bombing's consequences still disfigure the region to this day. The Milosevic regime is long gone, but Serbia’s politics and economy remain stunted. He must take a large share of the blame, but the bombing made things incomparably worse.

In the aftermath of its Operation, rather than sponsor a process of reconciliation, NATO put in place a runt state - Kosovo - still unrecognised by four of its own members. The legacy is crime, smuggling, gangsterism and reverse-cleansing. Kosovo’s Prime Minister, Haksim Thaci, has been exposed as a murderous thug, but to paraphrase Harry Truman, he’s NATO’s murderous thug.

So that takes care of a “successful intervention“. There have been a couple more since, widely regarded as not nearly so successful.

I’m no military expert. I don’t know whether a ’no fly zone’ can be implemented quickly and painlessly. If it is a risk free way of preventing Gaddafi from wreaking mayhem, it should be looked at. But let’s draw the line there right now.

Better late than flawed: The CSI Strategy

2011-03-01T10:50:00.000Z

Over at the Integrated Education Fund's new blog I ask why the Executive's Programme for Cohesion, Sharing and Integration has stalled.

The DUP unveils its candidate list, as the party leaves double-jobbing work half-finished.

2011-02-28T12:06:00.004Z

With the Republic’s general election done and dusted (not withstanding the small matter of forming a government), campaigning is about to get underway in earnest in Northern Ireland. This morning the DUP announces its candidates for the Assembly, with polling for both Stormont and local councils set for 5th May.

Alan in Belfast appears to have scooped this morning’s newspapers and the BBC. You can read the complete DUP line-up and his analysis over at Slugger. There are some signs of the party‘s much vaunted change of direction on the list, but it also contains its fair share of grizzled veterans.

At Open Unionism O’Neill congratulates the DUP for its partially successful action on double mandates. He notes that the party’s participation at Westminster has increased exponentially during this term and he chalks that up as one of the few positive legacies of UCUNF.

It’s fair enough comment, but it should be said, the DUP has tackled double jobbing - except where it hasn’t.

Peter Robinson’s pledge that he would be the only Democratic Unionist MP to retain an Assembly seat has been broken.

There wasn’t too much resistance where Sammy Wilson was concerned. Even the Belfast Telegraph implored the Finance Minister and East Antrim MP to retain his post at Stormont.

With Peter Robinson losing his Westminster seat to Naomi Long, the DUP might be forgiven for strategically redeploying its one exception, especially in a turbulent economic climate.

It’s not at all clear why Gregory Campbell should also be considered indispensable at the Assembly. He presides over a substantial personal vote in East Londonderry, but his presence on the list will be difficult to justify on anything other than purely selfish grounds.

Maurice Morrow will also juggle Assembly duties with attendance at the House of Lords, if his election campaign is successful. That mirrors the UUP's cynical decision to field Lord Empey in East Belfast.

The UUP unveiled its candidate list last November.

Votail Fianna Fail to smash Sinn Féin?

2011-02-25T14:22:00.005Z

If the rumours (spread by rutherford ;)) are true, Fianna Fail candidate, Averil Power, last night dispensed a last gasp election leaflet in the Dublin North East constituency stressing that "only Averil can stop Sinn Féin in this area". Now you'll not find me arguing with the premise that Shinners should be kept out, or that the party is an aberration in any healthy polity, but there is a certain delicious irony to this type of campaigning.

First of all, is it just me, or is "the republican party" coming rather close to DUP tactics? In the Upper Bann constituency the unionist party distributed an eve of poll leaflet with an unerringly similar message, during the UK general election campaign.

Secondly, to gild the cliche, surely this is a rather sauceless goose compared to the version served in Northern Ireland? The southern parties are horrified by Sinn Féin in the Republic, but they were quick enough to demand their inclusion in government up north. It's a point Jason Walsh touches upon in this pre-election broadside. We wouldn't have them in our government, but they'll do to keep those barbaric unionists on their toes!

"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt". McNarry again.

2011-02-23T15:11:00.001Z

Before it disappears from view, a quick word on the furore surrounding David McNarry’s comments on Invest NI. The UUP’s finance spokesman challenged the organisation after grants which it awarded to the international law firm Allen and Overy were offered to staff in London as an inducement to relocate to Belfast.

Ian Parsley cuts to core of the matter when he suggests that McNarry was within his rights to complain that the money was not being used for its correct purpose. The further argument that the posts are “jobs for Northern Ireland people” is ludicrous, particularly when it is made by a so-called unionist.

At the blog Finbar on Tour McFaggen points out that while some staff will relocate from London, 120 brand new posts will be created in Belfast. This is a massive firm, bringing well-paid jobs to Northern Ireland, which will benefit the economy. “You’d think that everyone in NI would be happy about the announcement”, McFaggen argues.

Now the Northern Ireland Conservative have waded into the controversy. Their Chairman, Irwin Armstrong, launches a pointed attack,

“MLAs who do not understand the requirements of internationally mobile companies and how professional companies assist their employees to transfer between locations but nevertheless feel the need to criticise Invest NI and the work they do, should think very carefully before they jump into the media to expose their lack of knowledge. They should remember Solomon's words 'Better to remain silent and thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt.'“

It’s hardly the first time that McNarry’s political radar has gone awry. His first instinct seems to be to go on the offensive, without thinking about logic or consequences. The UUP would be incomparably better off without him.

Can we learn from GB's experience of multiculturalism in Northern Ireland?

2011-02-22T10:14:00.001Z

In yesterday's Belfast Telegraph I asked whether the current debate in Great Britain includes lessons for a region just starting out on its experience of racial diversity. Pop over to the BT to read the full article.

In Northern Ireland, we're late-starters on the politics of race. That could actually be an advantage. There's an opportunity to learn from experiences elsewhere.

If we get it right, we can enjoy the cultural richness diversity brings, while also making newer arrivals feel integrated and at home.

To date, we've had few high-profile racist incidents in Northern Ireland. Only the attacks on Roma during the summer of 2009 were serious enough to command attention outside the province.

There's no indication that casual racism, or occasional outbursts of violence, are set to harden into a mood for far-right politics any time soon.

If the BNP decides to field council candidates in Northern Ireland, it's likely to get short shrift.

For the time being, we're far more preoccupied with traditional prejudices. But as society becomes more diverse, there is a risk that it will become even more segregated.

The Executive's failure to combat existing home-grown divisions hardly inspires confidence that it will know how to respond.

Monarchists demand a new Tsar while Stalin calls for democracy.

2011-02-21T14:37:00.000Z

Nicholas II - the last Tsar of Russia.

It’s been the premise of not a few thrillers, but restoration of the Russian Tsar is now the goal of a political party. RT reports that the Tsarist Russia party held its first congress in Moscow yesterday.

The group proposes that a modern Zemsky Sobor or ‘assembly of the land’ be called in order to choose a monarch. A rudimentary parliament of that name elected Boris Godunov to the throne after the Rurik dynasty ended in 1598.

The party is certainly ambitious. It hopes to build up a 10-20% vote share with a populist programme tapping into images and symbols from Russia‘s distant past.

Another less eccentric group is also charged with exploiting emotive historical events for its electoral advantage.

A Just Russia was the pro-Kremlin party designed to offer an alternative to United Russia on the centre-left. It supported Medvedev’s nomination for the presidency and squeaked into the state Duma at the 2007 election.

But the regime kept its distance from the party, after Putin aligned himself squarely behind United Russia and A Just Russia took a harder left nationalist line, moving into territory dominated by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation.

Now it has won the right to field a candidate called Dmitry Stalin in a regional election for the Khanty-Mansi autonomous region in Siberia. The Central Election Commission initially banned Stalin because of his contentious surname.

The controversy led to A Just Russia releasing a rather incongruous statement claiming “Stalin demands democracy”. Meanwhile the party’s political opponents claim it is engaged in dirty tactics, using the candidate’s name to stir up emotions and attract votes.

As ever, Russian news websites are rarely boring.

Signs that the UUP is serious about opposition.

2011-02-18T10:07:00.000Z

News that the UUP has asked the Government for funding to form an opposition at Stormont confirms two things: 1) the party is taking seriously the possibility of leaving the Executive in order to hold it to account, 2) money is currently an impediment.

Asking for cash is a sensitive issue in the current climate and rival parties are likely to attack the Ulster Unionists’ plans on that basis. It must be said, though, that no system of government comes without a price tag. It is inconceivable in most democratic systems that an opposition could function effectively without money to pay for researchers and other staff.

There are plenty of ways to cut spending in over-governed, over bureaucratised Northern Ireland. A little cash to breathe accountability into the system would be one of our wiser investments.

If other parties fixate on the cost, it is more than likely because they are not genuinely committed to the principle of an official opposition in the first plance. With Sinn Féin that goes without saying. The DUP, Alliance and SDLP are less cut and dried cases.

Certainly the DUP’s official enthusiasm for voluntary coalition is probably more tactical than genuine. It’s inconceivable that the party would want to operate its alliance with Sinn Féin, without the UUP to provide political cover.

The Alliance party has not endured a desperate scramble for a seat at the Executive table just to give it up now. If there were a voluntary system, it could not so easily pose as a selfless team player. It would have to stand over the policies formulated by Sinn Féin and the DUP and fight their corner, if it chose to remain in government.

Alongside Ulster Unionists, the SDLP is probably more open to the potential of opposition politics. Still, if the UUP were to go out on its own, there would be a strenuous debate within the nationalist party as to its response.

There’s an internal fault-line within the SDLP not unlike a similar divide in the UUP. The greener wing sees Sinn Féin as a more natural ally than Ulster Unionists. The notion of a coalition of the middle ground can be problematic.

The road to an official funded opposition is fraught with difficulties, but the UUP’s negotiations are significant, taken in conjunction with Tom Elliott’s speech, earlier this week.

The party is clearly thinking about the repercussions of the election and the likelihood that either its suggestion for the phasing of d’Hondt will be rebuffed or that it can’t agree a programme for government with Sinn Féin and the DUP.

It also sounds like there could be more follow through from the UUP than many of us initially suspected.

Elliott unveils "game changer" but can it change the game?

2011-02-16T11:01:00.003Z

I took a trip over to the Mount Business Centre in East Belfast this morning, to hear Tom Elliott unveil his‘game changer’ for power sharing in Northern Ireland. It’s being reported as a call for official opposition at Stormont, but that‘s just one component of the UUP‘s ‘big idea‘.

Elliott believes that an official opposition can be delivered over a four year time scale, alongside other measures to improve governance in Northern Ireland, such as cutting the number of MLAs and Executive departments.

In the meantime the UUP proposes a change to the phasing of d’Hondt after Assembly elections. Rather than have the parties divide up ministries before discussing policy, the Ulster Unionists suggest that a programme for government be agreed, along with budget arrangements, before d’Hondt is run.

Anticipating criticism that the process will take too long, Elliott cites the speedy formation of a coalition government at Westminster, following the general election. He clearly believes that the new timetable could be instigated, without altering existing legislation.

As well as laying out the UUP’s policy innovation, this morning’s business breakfast is intended to get the party’s Assembly campaign up and running. It believes it is putting the ball firmly in the DUP and Sinn Féin’s court.

“They stand accused of running a two party carve-up rather than an all party coalition”, Elliott remarked, “if Sinn Féin / DUP want to change, if they want to put this country first, let them speak out today and back this proposal”.

And if the two larger parties won‘t play ball what are the likely consequences for the UUP?

The Ulster Unionists want to fight the election on the premise that they will enter the Executive only if it is possible to agree a programme for government. Logically, any party which does not agree to a programme would become part of the voluntary opposition.

If the UUP’s rivals insist that d’Hondt must precede any discussions about policy and finance, then the Ulster Unionists will face a familiar dilemma. Do they refuse to participate in the allocation of ministries and will they stay outside the Executive?

The UUP’s idea certainly has potential. It’s the most imaginative initiative that we’ve seen since Elliott became leader.

It will only gain legs, though, if the party is prepared to push it hard – right through to its logical conclusion. That means agreeing a programme for government up front, or walking away from the Executive.

Guardian journalist back in situ

2011-02-15T17:47:00.002Z

This time last week a full scale row was brewing over the Guardian journalist Luke Harding's apparent 'expulsion' from Russia. Labour MP Chris Bryant even called for the Kremlin's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, to be denied entry to Britain over the episode.

This afternoon Lavrov delivered a speech at the London School of Economics after meeting William Hague at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office . His visit attracted some protests from Russian opposition activists, who attempted to pass on a series of symbolic 'gifts' for President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin.

So why has everything gone quiet on the Harding affair? Quite simple really. The journalist is back in situ in Moscow. He reentered the country just a week after being refused entry at Domodedovo Airport. He uses his Twitter account to suggest that colleagues pursue his "case" at Lavrov's press conference. A week's enforced leave, though, does not make a compelling story or a diplomatic incident.

Whatever Russia's reasons for denying Harding entry, it allowed him to sort out the bureaucracy and return to work quickly. That enabled the two foreign ministers to get on with creating "a patient, steady improvement in relations" between the UK and Russia, with fewer distractions. Good sense prevailed and the Guardian enjoyed a free publicity coup.

DUP selection turns messy.

2011-02-14T12:41:00.000Z

The UUP is not the only Northern Irish party whose selection process is turning fractious.

Over at Slugger Drumlin’s Rock highlights the curious case of Dr Phillip Weir. The DUP’s head of policy was deselected in Craigavon where he currently holds a council seat and subsequently failed to get the nod just down the road, in Banbridge.

Obviously the key adviser to Peter Robinson is not easily discouraged. He intends to try for selection for a third council seat, perhaps that will be the charm. This time it’s in Lisburn, where Edwin Poots stands down at the next election, in order to concentrate on his Assembly duties.

Meanwhile the News Letter reports that DUP Belfast city councillor, David Rodway, has also been deselected in favour of leading Orangeman, Tom Haire.

It doesn’t look like Rodway will go quietly. He claims that he may be suffering discrimination because of his agnostic beliefs. The Cornishman now says that he’s in talks with UUP leader Tom Elliott.

Rodway describes a small group within the DUP “with a narrow view of politics and religion” who “stiched (him) up”. Not the type of allegation Robinson will want to hear repeated as he tries to claim the unionist centre ground.

Former Liverpool boss gets a suitable post

2011-02-11T13:05:00.004Z

Well isn't it nice when everything turns out so everyone's happy?

Roy Hodgson is a decent man and a decent coach, so no-one would begrudge him a manager's post in the Premier League. Just so long as that role isn't at Liverpool.

Just a month after his sacking he has taken up the hotseat at West Brom, which will surely be a more comfy fit for all concerned. After all, he's got a proven track record of helping average club teams punch above their weight.

Meanwhile Kenny Dalglish has coaxed Liverpool into a four game winning streak in the league, very quickly moving the club up to sixth in the table. All is not rosy in the garden just yet, but optimism is back, attacking football is back and a chance to build for the future is back.

Liverpool Football Club got a manager suited to its standing and West Brom Albion probably did better than it otherwise would, in terms of attracting an established and respected coach.

Isn't that nice?

The Way Back - review at The Dabbler.

2011-02-09T14:24:00.000Z

I review the Gulag escape movie over at The Dabbler.

UUP shooting the messenger

2011-02-09T09:33:00.003Z

The following is the original copy for yesterday's Belfast Telegraph article - which is now online.

Who’s to blame for the Ulster Unionists‘ latest batch of problems? According to Mike Nesbitt, they’re the media’s fault. The Strangford Assembly candidate told Stephen Nolan recently that journalists are driving a “narrative” which creates difficulties for the UUP.

If that sounds a bit like shooting the messenger, Tom Elliott sounds like a man determined to shoot himself in the foot. In a newspaper interview, the Ulster Unionist leader blamed party members’ negativity. Low morale, “is being caused by our own people”, Elliott complained.

Slamming your rank and file isn’t clever politics, but the Fermanagh Assemblyman is closer to the mark than Nesbitt. The Ulster Unionists’ problems are largely of their own making. The party is wracked with confusion, mixed messages and indecision.

A couple of weeks ago the UUP looked set to embrace a fresh new strategy when it threatened to reject the Executive’s draft budget. Finance spokesman, David McNarry, announced that his party was “unable to endorse” the document. It seemed that the Ulster Unionists had chosen their battle-ground for May‘s Assembly election.

Almost immediately the back-pedalling began. Less than 48 hours later, McNarry explained that the UUP might support the budget after all. The party simply wanted more detail and, for the time being, it was reserving judgement.

It wasn’t exactly a U-Turn. The Ulster Unionists had left a gaping semantic escape route through which to wriggle: refusal to endorse the budget was never the same as actively opposing it. Still, for the interested observer, it looked like the party came perilously close to adopting a clear, comprehensible position, only to lose its nerve at the last moment.

Outright opposition to the budget would be a risky strategy for the Ulster Unionists. It only really makes sense if the UUP is prepared to withdraw its ministers from the Executive altogether, if their concerns are not addressed.

The party eventually got the worst of both worlds - raising the possibility of resisting the budget and then apparently backing down. It bewildered its own representatives, never mind floating voters. Larne Borough Councillor, Mark Dunn, became the latest defector, criticising the party for its unwillingness to leave the Executive to form a voluntary opposition.

The sense of disarray was heightened when the UUP announced a pre-election pact with the DUP in North and West Belfast. After attacking its unionist rival over the budget and accusing it of carving up power with Sinn Féin, in practically the same breath, the party struck an electoral arrangement with the DUP at local level.

It’s no wonder observers are confused. Even as they edge towards a deal with yet another party, it’s still not clear what shape the Ulster Unionists’ existing link with the Conservatives will take, post-UCUNF.

Tom Elliott managed to prolong the two parties’ relationship, when it looked like local Tories would contest the Assembly election, but the UUP distances itself from its national partner one moment and defends it the next . The Conservatives now plan to open a campaign office in Northern Ireland, suggesting that they intend to field their own candidates in the future, possibly against Ulster Unionists.

The UUP only has itself to blame if unanswered questions are construed as another symptom of confusion and division. Some Ulster Unionists clearly support the Conservative connection, while others want nothing to do with the Tories. In a similar vein, one part of the UUP is itching for a final electoral show-down with the DUP, while another wants ’unionist unity’.

Admittedly the issue of Executive membership is a knottier dilemma and one which the party shares with the SDLP. Can smaller parties effectively challenge the DUP and Sinn Féin while remaining junior partners in government?

It would take extraordinary courage for the UUP to make the leap into voluntary opposition. But, as it stands, Ulster Unionist ministers share responsibility for Executive policies over which they have little or no influence. The party must resolve that conundrum, otherwise it will remain a whipping boy for the DUP or worse, become its little brother in a ‘unionist unity’ arrangement.

Russia row at the Guardian.

2011-02-08T17:51:00.011Z

The Guardian claims that its Moscow correspondent, Luke Harding, has been expelled from Russia for reporting the Wikileaks scandal. The allegation is a little odd as the issue at hand has been covered extensively in the Russian press.

Nevertheless the newspaper has gone to the rather extraordinary lengths of recruiting the Labour MP Chris Bryant to its cause. He’s demanding that the British government retaliates by refusing to allow the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, to make a planned visit to the UK next week. The coalition would be wise to take its counsel elsewhere.

Bryant is practised in the anti-Russia stuff. Most recently he rushed to condemn Mike Hancock for the grievous crime of having a Russian employee with sympathies for her homeland. And he also served as under secretary of state in the foreign office during David Miliband‘s virulently anti-Moscow tenure.

In any case, there are two sides to the story. Ria Novosti reports that the Guardian journalist flouted well known accreditation rules. It quotes Russia’s foreign ministry, which suggests that, should Harding sort out the paperwork, “he will have no problems entering the Russian Federation”.

Whatever the truth surrounding these events, Sublime Oblivion is most exercised by censorship at Comment is Free, the Guardian’s opinion website. In a piece entitled ’some comments are freer than others’ it is alleged that up to 20% of follow up opinions have been removed from a piece about Harding, including all of those which are critical of the newspaper. The blogger includes a synopsis of his own (deleted) contribution.

It's an interesting situation. Harding's work certainly isn't admired in Russia but that doesn't justify denying him entry. No doubt there was some opportunism on the authorities' part. I suppose the acid test will be, will the journalist be permitted to sort out the necessary accreditation and if he does, well he be readmitted to Russia?

If not, it will be fleeting and puzzling score for the Russian government.

Robinson tribute calls media role into question.

2011-02-08T12:58:00.007Z

BBC 1 Northern Ireland screened Below the Radar’s Peter Robinson biopic last night. Like the company’s programme about Gerry Adams, this was more hagiography than documentary. Robinson and Adams, two hugely controversial figures, portrayed as visionary statesmen.

Beyond the moral and factual arguments, this style of broadcasting raises a fundamental issue around the role of an independent media. Surely its purpose is not to show political figures exactly as they wish to be shown? That’s a job for PR consultants or party press offices.

I wonder whether the sagas around Robinson and Adams, over the past year, tell us as much about journalism in Northern Ireland than they do about the men themselves.

Twelve months ago the BBC in particular had sunk its teeth deep into Irisgate and the First Minister‘s financial affairs. It looked like Peter Robinson’s political career was at an end.

Those events were eclipsed by a vastly overblown policing and justice saga., just another in the long series of set pieces to afflict power-sharing here. As reporters flocked to Stormont, the British and Irish governments sought to bolster the DUP leader and keep talks at Hillsborough moving.

It’s clear that, at that point, Robinson was viewed as a pivotal figure. Adams likewise. As the NIO and others saw it, instability in either the DUP or Sinn Féin could put power-sharing at risk. Should Robinson fall, it was supposed, the Democratic Unionists would take a harder line.

Meanwhile the Conservative party convened the two main Northern Irish unionist parties at Hatfield for their infamous summit. Ostensibly the aim was to ensure policing and justice were devolved but ’unity’ was also on the agenda.

Roughly a year later the BBC, which initiated Peter Robinson’s problems with its Panorama programme, screens an hour of broadcasting completing his rehabilitation. In less than 12 months he has gone from cynical wide-boy with an eye on the main chance, to peace-making statesman.

The process has been replicated fairly faithfully in the newspapers. And something similar has happened with Adams - a man who plotted to cover up alleged sex abuse within his own family.

Did the media connive with the authorities to lay off Robinson and Adams? Did it swallow the rehabilitation narrative in good faith? Were the stories and controversies from last year vastly overblown in the first place?

I’d imagine the truth is somewhere in the middle, but each of these possibilities raises its own set of concerns. However you assess the likely factors, it must be asked whether the process of questioning, probing and playing devil’s advocate, which a healthy media should play, is sufficiently robust in Northern Ireland.

A tribute, a publicity stunt or phishing in print?

2011-02-07T12:03:00.002Z

This might be the most bizarre media story for a while. Informed readers were not expecting to peruse a copy of the Sunday Tribune yesterday, but a paper sporting its masthead did appear in newsagents. The southern Irish publication has entered receivership and it will not be printed for the next few weeks at least.

So what exactly was this doppelgänger? It was a special edition of the rival Irish Mail on Sunday, "designed for" Tribune readers! Talk about kicking someone when they're down!

The Mail's editor launches a circuitous and highly unconvincing argument about keeping people in the newspaper buying habit. It strikes me that the exercise was nothing so much as a print media adoption of 'phishing' techniques popularised on the internet.

There's certainly not much in the way of industry solidarity for a paper fallen on hard times.

Yeltsin's birthday and continuity.

2011-02-04T16:36:00.002Z

If Boris Yeltsin were still alive, he would have celebrated his eightieth birthday on Tuesday. Although his record in the job was chequered, to say the least, the current Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, paid tribute to his predecessor in Yekaterinburg.

A monument to Yeltsin was unveiled in the city where he lived and where, as a communist functionary during the 1970s and 1980s, he built up his political power base. Medvedev chose the occasion to announce an expansion of the human rights council, ordering it to investigate the cases of Yukos bosses Sergei Magitsky and Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

It was an interesting piece of symbolism - both historically and in the context of Russia‘s current system of government. It implied that Yeltsin was the father of democracy and human rights in Russia and it rather suggested that his successors haven’t been as faithful to that legacy as they might have been.

Clearly, there are problems with that interpretation. It can be argued that Mikhail Gorbachev should take at least as much credit for Russia’s transition to democracy. Indeed many claim that Gorbachev was the true architect of freedom, while Yeltsin cynically manipulated it to grab power.

As for the former president as a guarantor of democracy - it was Yeltsin who started the process of emasculating the Duma and other institutions. He allowed oligarchy and factionalism to overwhelm party politics and pluralism in the first place. And he took on Chechen nationalism in a mismanaged, brutal war, more or less on a whim.

In short, Yeltsin put in place all the features of Russian government which, when Vladimir Putin hammered them into some semblance of order, western observers portrayed as “regressions” from democracy.

Distilled to its essentials, the popular, potted history of post-Soviet Russia runs as follows: the country experienced a brief flowering of democracy during Yeltsin’s time in power, accompanied by massive corruption and a chaotic economy. When Putin became President he imposed order and brought prosperity, but clamped down on political freedoms and human rights.

I exaggerate of course. Even a casual observer knows that this is a gross simplification and can point to a degeneration of democracy during the later years of Yeltsin's presidency. Broadly though, a lot of media analysis and some academic work comprise variations on a theme. There are exceptions.

Recently I’ve been reading Richard Sakwa’s book about the Medvedev succession, The Crisis of Russian Democracy. It‘s more circumspect than the title suggests. The author launches a persuasive argument that modern Russian history cannot be understood simply as a descent back into authoritarian government.

He suggests a new model for understanding the current regime in Russia, which he calls ‘the dual state‘. His theory is that the state derives its legitimacy from democratic institutions and adherence to the constitution, but Russia is not a western style liberal democracy because an unelected ‘administrative regime’ subverts the constitutional order. These are the various factions - bureaucrats, oligarchs and siloviki which dominate western analyses of Russia.

Sakwa’s thesis is not that the constitutional state is a convenient front for shadowy forces. He believes the two tendencies have reached an uneasy stalemate. The administrative element prevents genuine pluralism from flourishing, while constitutionalism prevents the imposition of full-scale authoritarianism.

I intend to review the book in full soon. Sakwa hangs some penetrating insights upon his model. In particular his theories about the submersion of pluralism within the administrative system and the adaptability of clan politics, which have never developed in Russia to the extent that they have in Ukraine, to competitive party politics.

For the time being, I’ll stick to Yeltsin. The book is relevant because it supports the point that there are significant continuities between Russian politics under Yeltsin and Russian politics under Putin and beyond. The liberal, democratic element is still there and it‘s still important. Medvedev alluded to it when he made his announcement on human rights.

As he signed the presidential decree, he also remarked, “I am doing this right now. The way Yeltsin really liked to do things”. It’s a telling comment and it hints at a consolidation of power in one institution which long preceded Putin. The democratic element didn't die with Yeltsin and the authoritarian tendency wasn't invented by Putin.

Luzhkov mustn't be allowed to stay in Britain.

2011-02-03T15:11:00.007Z

On Sublime Oblivion Anatoly Karlin notes that the disgraced former mayor of Moscow, Yuri Luzhkov, has been granted permission to enter Britain. Contrary to some reports though, he has not yet received a residence permit for the UK.

Austria and Latvia have already rejected Luzhkov’s requests to live within their borders. His family are currently in Britain and his daughters are studying at a university in London.

All sorts of Russian dissidents, out of favour oligarchs and even terrorists have chosen to make these shores their home, over the past ten years. Boris Berezovsky, the exiled tycoon who aspires to overthrow Russia’s government by force, and the Chechen rebel Akhmed Zakayev are two of the more prominent examples.

In a recent Conservative Home article, Carl Thomson revealed that 150 extradition requests by Moscow had been rejected by the UK since 2001. Partly the statistic is explained by links, cultural and economic, which exist between the Russian elite and Britain. There are many Russians living here and a minority avoid Russia because of disputes with their government or problems with the law.

The UK has no need to admit another failed klepotocrat seeking to avoid fraud proceedings in his home country. Luzhkov ran Moscow like a personal fiefdom and it is alleged that he abused his position in order to enrich his own family.

Britain has sheltered Berezovsky, a rich manipulator who played the factional game of Russian politics and lost, under the pretence that he’s a dissident and a democrat. It mustn’t allow Luzhkov to play the same trick. Let him visit his family and let him leave again.

Conservatives backtracking on UUP link?

2011-02-03T09:43:00.004Z

Something of a postscript to yesterday’s piece on the UUP / Tory connection. The relationship looks even more uncertain this morning, after the Conservative party committed to “an ongoing programme of campaigning and development” in Northern Ireland.

In a press release the party’s UK joint chair, Baroness Warsi, announced that the Tories will soon open a campaign headquarters in Bangor. A full-time member of staff will be recruited to liaise with one of the Conservatives’ “most senior campaign directors”.

In addition, the Tories’ Northern Ireland chairman, Irwin Armstrong, who tendered his resignation in December, is back. After Tom Elliott and Andrew Feldman’s infamous meeting, he felt that his position was untenable. Conservative central office looked set to marginalise the local membership, preferring to lend its electoral ‘franchise‘ to the UUP.

Armstrong now believes that his concerns have been addressed:

Today’s announcement from our joint Chairman Baroness Warsi confirms the unequivocal support of our leadership and board for Conservatives in Northern Ireland, their wish to have a close relationship with local Conservatives, to be at the heart of politics here, and that we will be contesting elections in future.

The local Tories will not, at this late stage, contest Assembly elections. The UUP’s immediate goal of forestalling that threat is still achieved. In this morning’s News Letter, though, Sam McBride reports that the Ulster Unionists were not consulted, before the latest Conservative announcements on a reorganisation in Northern Ireland.

At the very least it is clear that the local party is still a serious rival to the UUP for the affections and attentions of Tory central office. Warsi’s statement promises that senior Conservative figures in Northern Ireland “will work with the Board of the party” in order to develop the relationship between its national and local wings.

That fulfils a long-standing aim of the local Tories to gain a foothold on the national party board. Whereas two months ago its very future was in doubt, the Northern Ireland party is now confident enough to claim, “we will have infrastructure in place for all future elections including an office and full time staff to support the local Executive and candidates“.

Back in December, Warsi was one of the senior Conservatives who championed the merits of a deal with the UUP, now she claims “the Conservative party in Northern Ireland has the unequivocal support of the party nationally”.

I’d imagine that the Ulster Unionists will be seeking urgent clarification this morning. The rationale behind the Feldman / Elliott deal was that, even in a relatively weak state, the UUP could exert more influence in the Assembly and do more to strengthen the political centre ground in Northern Ireland, than could be achieved by building up the Tories’ own local presence.

That logic holds for the forthcoming election, but the Conservatives look to be keeping their options open for the future.

The relevant Tory press releases can be read in full beneath the fold.

Warsi: Conservative Party committed to Northern Ireland

The Conservative Party in Northern Ireland has committed itself to an ongoing programme of campaigning and development and will shortly move into a new campaign headquarters in Bangor, Co. Down. A full time member of staff will be based at the headquarters and one of the Party’s most senior campaign directors has been appointed to liaise with the Party in Northern Ireland.

The Party is committed to the development of progressive centre right politics which offer the electorate of Northern Ireland the opportunity to cast their votes for and participate directly with the national Government of the United Kingdom. The Party will continue to review how Conservatives in Northern Ireland can play a full part in the Conservative Party as in every other part of the United Kingdom and senior Conservatives in Northern Ireland will work with the Board of the Party to develop that relationship.

Central to that development will be the Party’s desire to see Conservative Associations formed in every Northern Ireland constituency and an active programme of membership recruitment at a local level.

Conservative Party co-chairman Baroness Warsi said: “The Conservative Party in Northern Ireland has the unequivocal support of the Party nationally. Politics in Northern Ireland continues to evolve and we are determined to be at the heart of that evolution. Our approach will be one of active engagement – starting with the fielding of candidates in the Local Council elections in May.”

ENDS

Irwin Armstrong returns as Chairman of the local Conservatives

The Conservative Party in Northern Ireland today announced that Irwin Armstrong had resumed his position as Chairman of the local party.

Irwin Armstrong commented.

“When I tendered my resignation in December I said it was untenable for me to remain as Chairman since it appeared that the party in Northern Ireland would no longer be able to contest elections and that I did not have the support of the leadership.

Today’s announcement from our joint Chairman Baroness Warsi confirms the unequivocal support of our leadership and board for Conservatives in Northern Ireland, their wish to have a close relationship with local Conservatives, to be at the heart of politics here, and that we will be contesting elections in future. This demonstrates that the reasons for tendering my resignation have been addressed and I have therefore consented to the request of the Executive and local membership that I withdraw my resignation.”

The party also commented on their future plans in Northern Ireland.

Members of our Executive have agreed that we would not now be able to properly contest the Assembly elections as we will not have the necessary infrastructure in place due to the events of recent months. We can however confirm that we will have that infrastructure in place for all future elections including an office and full time staff to support the local Executive and candidates.

We will therefore watch with interest the results of the Assembly elections in May and then decide on a detailed long term strategy that will enable us to make a real difference as we pursue our One Northern Ireland, One Community, One Future politics, and put up credible candidates with the experience that can provide the leadership Northern Ireland requires.

We look forward to building our party across Northern Ireland and attracting members and future candidates from all sections of the community who believe in our vision of a positive future for everyone.

Facebook changes

2011-02-02T15:00:00.000Z

In an attempt to update the site's social networking presence a little, I've added a Facebook site for Three Thousand Versts.

Previously the link on the right hand side linked to a NetworkedBlogs application, inviting you to follow this blog. Now the Facebook site stands alone and you just have to 'like' it in order to follow all the latest posts and news.

Confused? Me too - but hopefully it'll all become blindingly obvious with repeated use. Don't be shy, if you are on Facebook you can click on the link and hit 'like'.

Paterson denies Elliott his leadership pledge.

2011-02-02T12:56:00.002Z

This morning’s Belfast Telegraph confirms that the government will not change the mechanism for selecting the First and Deputy First Ministers. Yesterday Owen Paterson told the Assembly and Executive Review Committee that he won’t amend the 2006 St Andrews Act by Order-in-Council.

That’s another bitter blow for Tom Elliott, who ran his UUP leadership campaign on the premise that he could persuade the government to do just that. No doubt the Conservatives expressed sympathy for the Ulster Unionist position that the Belfast Agreement was unjustifiably tampered with at St Andrews.

It was already clear that the game was up last week though. The News Letter was informed by a third party that Mr Elliott stormed out of a meeting with Paterson over the issue. The report prompted O’Neill to ask whether the latest UUP - Conservative deal was already unravelling.

It’s an interesting question. The two ‘partners’ are remarkably shy about outlining the exact nature of their new relationship. Is the UUP now the Conservative franchisee in Northern Ireland? Is it bound to take the Tory whip at Westminster and in Europe, in the next set of elections? The local Tory organisation remains in place, after all, and there are whispers that it is about to increase its campaigning capacity.

It would be wrong to claim that the Conservative / UUP partnership has not delivered anything for Northern Ireland. Cooperation between Owen Paterson and Lord Empey played a critical role in delivered a deal for PMS savers and the two parties have driven the case for lower Corporation Tax here together, against a background of scepticism.

Whatever informal discussions took place on the issue of the OFMDFM mechanism, though, Elliott was unwise to make his influence on the issue a critical feature of the leadership campaign. He asked the question and he was flatly denied. Pretty simple really.

The Conservatives backed down where the Assembly elections were concerned. Running candidates would have entailed either severing the UUP connection for good or compelling cooperation on the ground.

That doesn’t mean that the current situation will be allowed to drift indefinitely. UCUNF, for all the confused messages which it issued, at least formed a shared platform for the two parties. At the current time there is a link, but no-one is exactly sure what it means.

Irish Environment and Northern Ireland Water

2011-02-01T16:52:00.000Z

Just to point you in the direction of my article in Irish Environment, an "online resource for environmental matters on the island of Ireland". It revisits the water crisis over the Christmas break.

Transfer deadline frenzy as Liverpool spend big. But has the club made the right decisions?

2011-02-01T13:22:00.004Z

I can’t say I’ve missed Sky Sports News much since it was withdrawn from Freeview. Yesterday though, I felt a pang. As British football clubs flung cash around like drunken sailors, on transfer deadline day, rolling overkill and overwrought hyperbole was precisely what was needed.

Chelsea and Liverpool were the biggest spenders during January‘s window. As Fernando Torres edged ever closer to a record breaking move to Stamford Bridge, there was an ill disguised frenzy at Anfield to reinvest tens of millions of pounds anticipated from the transfer.

The club first completed the purchase of Luis Suarez from Ajax. The fee, a mere £23 million, had been agreed over the weekend, but the player only put pen to paper yesterday. More controversially, a reported £35 million was then spent on Newcastle’s young striker Andy Carroll.

Liverpool’s caretaker manager, Kenny Dalglish, spoke about securing a “marquee signing” during January in order to boost morale. In the event the club managed two such purchases, but lost its best player. There is undoubtedly a high degree of risk to its last minute wheeling and dealing.

The January transfer window is a notoriously tricky option for team building. With half a season’s football under their belts, clubs can easily be tempted into panic buying and the hot-house atmosphere lends itself to vastly inflated price tags.

If Liverpool’s gamble gives the club a mid-season fillip and gives it the impetus to push on up the table, then Dalglish and FSG will feel vindicated. If, on the other hand, it deprives a new manager (whomever that might be) of the funds to rebuild in the calmer summer months of pre-season, it will be a major error.

Both the transfers involve players of unproven potential. Suarez is exactly the type of bright young world star whom Liverpool should be chasing. He is quick, hard-working and as the videos show, can do a passing on-field impression of Torres.

His reputation, though, has been built at international level and at Ajax, playing in the reasonably forgiving Dutch league. His youth gives him a good chance of adapting to English football, but Liverpool supporters must be patient, despite the large transfer fee.

Critics will point to Diego Forlan, as a precedent for a Uruguayan international failing to settle sufficiently quickly in England. And Liverpool need look no further than their own Dirk Kuyt to see that impressive goal-scoring tallies in Holland aren’t always replicated in the Premier League.

At least Kuyt is an asset to the club. Ryan Babel’s potential was never realised and he is another high-profile player who has moved during the transfer window. Liverpool finally cut its losses, recouping around £7 million, after the Dutchman signed for Hoffenheim.

If Suarez is something of an unknown quantity, the wisdom of a £35 million investment in Andy Carroll is even more open to doubt. He is certainly a talent, possessing height, aerial ability and a powerful left footed shot. There are also serious questions over his temperament, discipline, lifestyle and fitness. Liverpool has spent the sort of money usually reserved for a sure thing, on players about whom there is considerable uncertainty.

Can Carroll and Suarez gel into a formidable partnership? Will the former, in particular, fit the passing game which Dalglish favours? Admittedly, I’ve had few chances to watch the player, other than on Match of the Day. During a highlights package, he’s the man whom Newcastle frenziedly lump the ball up to during the last ten minutes of matches. For my liking, they became too reliant on hoofing it up to the big man. Liverpool supporters won't appreciate a similar approach.

If Carroll’s greatest asset is his aerial ability, how, in any case, does Liverpool hope to supply him with consistent service? The team still desperately lacks width. There was speculation that the club could also tempt Ashley Young away from Aston Villa yesterday, but that transfer didn’t materialise.

No-one can deny that Liverpool has shown ambition in targeting promising young players and spending serious money. Partly that ambition was facilitated by Torres departure, partly it was forced upon a new ownership, desperate to reassure fans that a major departure would not derail their plans.

Has the club made the right decisions under these circumstances? I don’t think there’ll be a definitive answer to that question until at least next season.

News Letter Best of the Web

2011-01-31T14:52:00.001Z

Last week I stood in for the inimitable Geoff McGimpsey and reviewed the blogs for the News Letter. Here's what I picked out.

It’s the time of the year when native Scots, Ulster Scots and wannabe Scots alike munch haggis, recite verse and indulge in a wee dram or two, in tribute to Rabbie Burns. The poet wrote “whisky and freedom gang the ‘gither”, but The Dabbler blog isn’t prepared to take anything for granted.

It poses the burning question “what would Rabbie drink?”, if he were able to drop by on one of his eponymous suppers. “As a working class lad from Scotland, today’s answer is probably vodka”, Ian Buxton speculates, ignoring the more obvious tipple - Buckfast tonic wine.

Ian Parsley is more interested in Burns supper nibbles, or “an thaim as taaks the Braid”. Even where I’m from, that’s a river running through Ballymena, rather than fodder for the toaster. Which adds piquancy to Parsley’s query, “where are these ‘Ulster Scots’ speakers?”.

He’s also concerned about the Republic’s “political meltdown” or as @williamcrawley prefers to term it “Cowengate” (geddit?). Fianna Fail is enduring a tough time but it’s still a massive institution south of the border. Ian employs a football analogy, “in the way that FC Barcelona is ’more than a club’, Fianna Fail is ’more than a party’”. Ole!

Speaking of football, the issue of sexism in the sport, exemplified this week by Sky Sports’ presenters Richard Keys and Andy Gray, is exercising many bloggers. Gray was sacked following comments about a female assistant referee and other unsavoury revelations.

Yourfriendinthenorth reckons it was a fair cop. “Sacking was the only option”. And the irony behind the incident? “Torres’ goal was onside. Good call lineswoman!”.

Tenacious bloggers Dilettante and O’Neill are less impressed with Owen Paterson‘s responsiveness. They wrote to the Secretary of State three weeks ago and , to date, have received no reply. Consequently they’ve turned their original correspondence into an open letter, which appeared on several websites over the course of the week, including Slugger O’Toole.

It’s a simple query really. What’s going to happen to the Northern Ireland Conservative party? “In recent weeks there has been some confusion about the future of the party”, they claim, “if you were able to clarify that position, we would pass it on to our readership”. Over to you Mr Paterson.

While the Secretary of State’s silence is an issue for the blogs, no-one would accuse Jim Allister of similar reticence. In fact some would say that he and his party are allotted more column inches than their electoral strength strictly deserves.

Former Westminster candidate David Vance disagrees. On his blog, A Tangled Web, he takes the local media to task for its failure to cover TUV press releases.

“I suppose that is one way to control our electoral prospects - the Soviets knew that if you control the message, you control the results”. Never let it be said that the News Letter is determined to strangle your party’s prospects David - here’s one more mention!

Another aspiring politico is in a better mood after Ulster’s advance to the quarter finals of rugby’s Heineken Cup. Rodney McCune, the UUP Assembly candidate for East Antrim, celebrates the team’s achievement, but he can’t resist a political sting in the tale.

“With a Humphreys at ten, Ulster can achieve anything. In Contrast an Executive lead by Sinn Fein and the DUP seems destined to achieve nothing”. Maybe Peter Robinson should think about promoting William Humphrey MLA to ministerial duties?

Rodney’s not the only one taking an online pop at the DUP this week. @JohnODowdMLA accuses the party of considering free school meals a “hairy fairy idea”. Now I’m sure the DUP doesn’t actually want to abolish free school meals, but its true that its representatives haven’t always been keen on “hairy fairies”!

Egypt and revolt in the Arab world - sometimes it's better the devil you know.

2011-01-27T12:05:00.006Z

First Tunisia and now Egypt. Demonstrators forced a change of government in Tunis and now President Mubarak’s regime is being challenged in Cairo, prompting hopes that a democratic revolution could sweep North Africa and the Middle East.

The usual parallels are being drawn: the fall of communism in 1989 and the so-called ‘colour revolutions’ in parts of the former Soviet Union and the Balkans. The media has already dubbed the Tunisian uprising the ‘Jasmine Revolution’.

The British government, in the guise of Foreign Secretary William Hague, threw its lot in with the demonstrators in Egypt yesterday. On the FCO website he urges the authorities in Cairo to “listen to the concerns of those demonstrating” and respect freedom of speech.

It's difficult to give out a substantially different message, but the overall tone is suitably cautious. Hague is careful to urge restraint from both sides.

Cairo is not Tunis. Egypt is the largest Arab state and has often acted as a bulwark of stability in a turbulent Middle East. The only organised opposition to the government is an organisation linked to Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, which wants to implement Islamic law.

There are a range of authoritarian regimes across the region, but we need only look to Iraq for proof that it is easier to unseat an unpleasant government than put something stable and enduring in its place.

Often the most likely alternative to an unpalatable incumbent regime is even worse. After all, the west’s current bete noir, the Islamic government in Iran, came to power after popular strikes and demonstrations against an autocratic monarchy.

The “colour revolutions” which newspapers invoke whenever protests across the Arab world are covered, were themselves a mixed bag. They describe a diverse range of events which affected the relevant countries‘ systems of government quite differently.

It could be argued that the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and the uprising against Slobodan Milosevic in Serbia both secured some lasting democratic gains, even if there were problems associated with both. In Kyrgyzstan, though, one political clan was simply replaced by another. Georgia had a similar experience, and President Saakashvili’s so-called democratic credentials are now thoroughly discredited.

Nobody would describe President Mubarak as a democrat, but he has kept a sprawling and potentially volatile country stable and shown diplomacy dealing with some fairly touchy neighbours in the wider region. The people of Egypt are entitled to challenge his regime - they certainly aren’t at liberty to vote it out of office - but we can’t be blind to the fact that a virulent strain of populist Islamism is eager to fill any political vacuum.

That pattern is replicated across much of North Africa and the Middle East, which is not to say that protesters shouldn’t press for democracy where it is denied.

It’s right to be wary about the outcome of events though. For governments in the west and their allies in the Arab world, there is some truth in the maxim ‘better the devil you know’. They can’t afford to disregard broader geo-political issues or throw caution to the wind by cheerleading revolution.

Baron Adams of Northstead - aka the Green Baron?

2011-01-26T13:58:00.003Z

"Wellity, wellity, wellity" as Homer Simpson once observed. We've finally seen it all. Not quite Lord Gerry of Andersonstown, but certainly Baron of the Manor of Northstead. In reply to a question from Nigel Dodds, the prime minister confirmed:

"I'm not sure that Gerry Adams will be delighted to be Baron of the Manor of Northstead. But nonetheless I'm pleased that tradition has been maintained."

Let's hope the interviewers in southern Ireland are appraised of the Sinn Féin president's new title. He ought to be addressed properly during the election campaign.