tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26237211530027213562024-03-19T08:48:06.582+00:00Three Thousand Versts of LonelinessCurrent affairs, Northern Ireland, Russia, Eastern Europe, football, culture.Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.comBlogger1812125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-90609299401272346462021-03-17T12:20:00.006+00:002021-03-17T12:23:04.099+00:00PoliticalOD 22: A roadmap that lacks direction<p> </p><iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="122" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/wvd3b-fcb9b4?from=pb6admin&download=1&version=1&auto=0&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Helvetica&skin=12&pfauth=&btn-skin=104" style="border: none;" title="A roadmap that lacks direction" width="100%"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>In PoliticalOD 22, The Dissenter and I discussed Rishi Sunak's budget. It seems to be a holding budget, as the chancellor waits for the end of lockdown to really take action that will restore the economy and the public finances. </div><div><br /></div><div>Speaking of lockdown, we talked about the Executive's laughable 'roadmap' out of the current Covid restrictions. A document that ducked decisions and dodged discussing data.</div><div><br /></div><div>This week, there were a few tentative commitments to ease people's house imprisonment and get children back to school. After Easter, non-essential retailers may even be able to provide click and collect services. <a href="https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/owen-polley-northern-ireland-is-particularly-prone-to-a-lockdown-mentality-spending-public-cash-and-hampering-the-private-sector-3147496" target="_blank">It's all very underwhelming</a>, as Covid cases fall and the vaccine reaches ever younger age groups.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Dissenter has <a href="https://www.thedissenter.co.uk/1027/double-trouble-for-smes/" target="_blank">discussed the repercussions for SMEs</a>, which are facing the effects of a double-whammy of lockdown and the Northern Ireland Protocol. </div><div><br /></div><div>You can stream the podcast in the window above, or find it at your favourite podcast service. We're on most of the common outlets.</div>Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-92049648515227937362021-02-17T16:37:00.001+00:002021-02-17T16:37:09.589+00:00PoliticalOD 21: Risky Business <p> </p><iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="122" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/i7d8r-fa74ee?from=pb6admin&download=1&version=1&auto=0&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Helvetica&skin=3&pfauth=&btn-skin=109" style="border: none;" title="Risky business" width="100%"></iframe>It's a fact that life entails risk. However, different cultures and institutions sometimes take a very different approach to risk. At The Dissenter, David discusses the 'absolutist legal hold' that leads the EU to consider an M & S ready meal a risk to its single market.<div><br /></div><div>At the same time, coronavirus cases are falling, while the people most vulnerable to the disease receive vaccines. The data suggests that they are working. So, why isn't there a clear route out of lockdown?</div><div><br /></div><div>Stream above, or find at the usual sites. </div>Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-61771027056480414132021-01-25T15:58:00.002+00:002021-01-25T15:59:25.139+00:00PoliticalOD 20: Tiocfaidh ar latte!<p> </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/45/A_small_cup_of_coffee.JPG/1280px-A_small_cup_of_coffee.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="300" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/45/A_small_cup_of_coffee.JPG/1280px-A_small_cup_of_coffee.JPG" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">By Julius Schorzman - Own work, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=107645<br /><br /><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="122" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/dmk2q-f85152?from=pb6admin&download=1&version=1&auto=0&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Helvetica&skin=10&pfauth=&btn-skin=104" style="border: none;" title="Tiocfaidh ar latte!" width="100%"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>Last week, British and Irish tweeters' fixation on American politics reached something of a frenzy, as Joe Biden was elected president of the United States. I've already written about the downsides of <a href="https://www.thearticle.com/lets-drop-our-obsession-with-america-and-stop-importing-its-problems" target="_blank">this obsession</a>. On the podcast, we discuss whether the new US leader is likely to heal deep divisions that have affected politics in Britain and across the West.</div><div><br /></div><div>One thing's for sure, the government will have to be alive to <a href="https://capx.co/the-government-should-challenge-irish-americas-lies-about-the-good-friday-agreement/" target="_blank">Irish American lies</a> about the Belfast Agreement, on an ongoing basis.</div><div><br /></div><div>We look again at the coronavirus debacle. What is the plan to get out of a cycle of lockdowns? It seems that now, even the vaccine doesn't offer a definite way out of the <a href="https://www.thearticle.com/time-to-break-lockdown-ideology" target="_blank">lockdown ideology</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>Speaking of ideology, we examine claims that Northern Ireland will be wrenched from the UK by the unstoppable force of Irish nationalism. The latest evidence seems to have something to do with coffee shops. Remember those?</div><div><br /></div><div>You can listen on the link embedded below, download <a href="https://s144.podbean.com/pb/76f61cef31f941e11cbdcfae4502c21f/600eea48/data3/fs133/6066051/uploads/E20_Political_OD.mp3?pbss=b6ee3f7b-e4e2-50a0-9cb2-6c1382daf7b2" target="_blank">at Podbean</a>, or find us at your favourite podcast provider. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-72492503528845445022020-12-30T12:24:00.000+00:002020-12-30T12:24:21.438+00:00PoliticalOD 19: 2021 may not be so different (or New Decade, Same Old Crap) <p> </p><iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="122" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/2nnpu-f615ba?from=pb6admin&download=1&version=1&auto=0&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Helvetica&skin=1&pfauth=&btn-skin=109" style="border: none;" title="2021 may not be so different" width="100%"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>In the latest PoliticalOD podcast, <a href="https://twitter.com/thedissenter" target="_blank">The Dissenter</a> and I look back on a year that was completely different and yet, in some ways, not so much.</div><div><br /></div><div>Over <a href="https://www.thedissenter.co.uk/1007/unpicking-reality/" target="_blank">at his blog</a>, David breaks down some of the themes in detail The year, started out with a deal to restore Stormont, but we pointed out at the time that it offered little hope that much needed reforms would be implemented. We were right, and, though the parties will point out that 2020 was dominated by the coronavirus crisis, there isn't much sign that we can expect better governance in 2021.</div><div><br /></div><div>We've spent a lot of time over the last year unpicking the Brexit negotiations. These are now at an end and, while the media has as yet to uncover any 'fatal flaw' in the new trade deal, as regards the whole country, in Northern Ireland, we have been edged away from the UK internal market, on which our economy is so dependent.</div><div><br /></div><div>As ever, the podcast is available <a href="https://politicalod.podbean.com/e/2021-may-not-be-so-different/" target="_blank">at Podbean</a>, and on most of the popular podcast and streaming sites. ITunes, Google, Spotify, TuneIn Radio, Amazon and Audible etc.</div>Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com29tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-81420289396462267892020-11-30T14:33:00.003+00:002020-11-30T14:33:53.512+00:00PoliticalOD 18: Borderline Clusterf#£$!<p> </p><iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="122" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/e7kps-f383fd?from=pb6admin&download=1&version=1&auto=0&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Helvetica&skin=8&pfauth=&btn-skin=103" style="border: none;" title="Borderline ClusterF#£€!" width="100%"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>As we hurtle toward the end of the year, and the implementation of an Irish Sea border, The Dissenter and I examine how preparations for this internal barrier are progressing. Spoiler alert: they've barely progressed at all.</div><div><br /></div><div>The government hopes that a trade agreement could soften the edges of the Northern Ireland protocol, but as David <a href="https://www.thedissenter.co.uk/997/borderline-clusterfe/" target="_blank">notes here</a>, whatever happens, the lack of preparedness is alarming.</div><div><br /></div><div>Recently, <a href="https://capx.co/the-shape-of-the-irish-sea-border-is-becoming-clear/" target="_blank">I wrote a piece at CapX </a>that spelled out the dizzying array of acronyms and jargon that businesses and hauliers face. This expanded on some of Sam McBride's reporting in the News Letter, which explained that the Traders' Support Service, set up by the government to manage trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, will exist for only two years after <a href="https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/just-53-days-go-leak-reveals-irish-sea-border-shambles-and-unravels-government-spin-3029287" target="_blank">Brexit day</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>It's all a great distance away from no costs and seamless trade.</div><div><br /></div><div>You can download or stream the article directly from our host, <a href="https://politicalod.podbean.com/e/borderline-clusterfe/" target="_blank">Podbean</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>We're <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/30WEkCIDtSihpXWlhroam6" target="_blank">on Spotify</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/borderline-clusterf-%C2%A3%E2%82%AC/id1481056929?i=1000500636852">iTunes.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/politicalOD-p1360815/?topicId=159072536" target="_blank">TuneIn Radio.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://pca.st/episode/ed514086-f3c7-45b2-a905-785d6f0b5dbf" target="_blank">Pocket Casts.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://www.amazon.com/politicalOD/dp/B08K58KKMR" target="_blank">Amazon / Audible.</a></div><div><br /></div><div>And we're at other podcast suppliers. Just check your preferred service.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-35195148374199352992020-11-05T11:17:00.004+00:002020-11-05T11:18:57.984+00:00'Bank of evidence' revealed government's threadbare lockdown reasoning<p> <span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">On Saturday, Boris Johnson announced that England will endure a four week lockdown, joining Northern Ireland and Wales, where so-called ‘circuit breaker’ restrictions are already in place. </span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-63283b8e-7fff-3f6b-cdb8-0635d71bb54e"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The evidence for these measures is opaque, though the scientific advisory group for emergencies, SAGE, says that hospitals will be overwhelmed by Covid-19 patients by December if no action is taken. When it comes to specific interventions - what should close and why - there is a dearth of material that explains the government’s reasoning. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In Northern Ireland, though, the province’s department of health recently published an ‘evidence bank’ of documents used to develop its strategy. The devolved executive imposed four weeks of restrictions on the strength of these arguments, shutting down hospitality businesses, closing ‘close contact’ services like hairdressers and beauty salons and preventing separate households from meeting indoors. For schools, the half-term break was extended from one week to a minimum of two.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The reaction from representatives of the business community was scathing. Simon Hamilton is chief executive of Belfast’s Chamber of Commerce, but he previously served as a senior minister in Northern Ireland’s devolved government. During his political career he was a minister for the economy, finance and health. But Mr, Hamilton described the contents of this dodgy dossier as “shocking”, “flimsy” and said they “raise many more questions.” </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">According to Northern Ireland’s health minister, Robin Swann, the most prominent piece of evidence in the ‘bank’ comprised “a summary of SAGE evidence which had already been placed in the public domain.” The bulk of the document appeared to be cut and pasted directly from the annex of a national paper that analysed the effectiveness of “non-pharmaceutical options to reduce Covid 19.” </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">For that reason, it provides an insight into the thinking behind the restrictions, as well as the case for and against each measure, across the whole UK. The flimsiness of the evidence used to support these strategies should therefore concern all of us, and not just the people of Northern Ireland.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In England, Wales, Ulster and parts of Scotland, hospitality businesses are being shut down or placed under heavy restrictions, in an attempt to prevent the virus spreading. However, the document estimates that closing restaurants, bars and cafes completely may result in cutting the R number (the average number of people infected by each person who has tested positive for Covid) by just 0.1-0.2. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Outdoor eating and drinking will be banned across much of the country, though the impact of this measure is expected to be negligible, according to the paper. And, tellingly, the SAGE report cites ‘multiple anecdotal reports of outbreaks linked to bars in the UK, Europe and the US’ to support the idea that pubs should be shut. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It’s worrying that, nearly eight months after the start of this crisis, the main group charged with advising the government is working from anecdotal evidence, rather than verifiable facts and figures. You might wonder what exactly it has been doing all this time.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Large gatherings of people outdoors have been prohibited right across the UK since March, but the document notes that this is likely to have a “low impact” on limiting the transmission of the virus. It estimates these interventions will reduce the R number by less than 0.05. The disease “does not persist in well-ventilated outdoor areas for long,” and gatherings of over 50 people are responsible for approximately 2% of Covid cases. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Likewise, the table suggests that closing ‘close contact personal services’, such as hair-dressers and beauty salons, will have little effect on the R number. Most of us use these services infrequently and businesses have invested heavily in protective equipment. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The theme is similar for a range of interventions that apply either to the whole UK or to specific parts of the country. The table is the closest thing to an explanation of government thinking that we have, but it is strikingly light on statistics, footnotes or lessons learned from the previous lockdown. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">When the restrictions were relaxed during late spring and summer, did our public health experts not take the opportunity to study in detail how different sectors and practices contributed to the spread of the disease? If that work took place, it’s not in evidence here.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Under ‘implementation issues’, the document notes that a number of interventions ‘improve the consistency’ of the government’s message. And that’s a revealing way of discussing life changing, business-wrecking restrictions.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It seems, that despite so many months living with this disease, many of the government’s interventions are still based on conjecture and best guesses, rather than data. Across the UK, the authorities act to be seen to be doing something and in order to impress upon the public the seriousness with which the disease should be taken.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Sectors of the economy are closed, not because it is demonstrated that they contributed to the spread of Covid-19, or that they cannot continue to operate safely, but in order to change people’s behaviour. If we are allowed to drink at a pub, go to an open air concert or, eat a meal outside a restaurant, then things seem too normal and we stop distancing and washing our hands.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Surely, after all this time, we deserve better? Amid the confusing mishmash of lockdowns, ‘circuit-breakers’, tiers and ‘fire breaks’, can we not have a frank discussion about managing risk, taking personal responsibility and managing this virus without destroying the economic and social life of our country? If the answer is ‘no’, then what exactly is the alternative plan?</span></p><div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div></span>Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-41628742588042581632020-10-16T14:46:00.005+01:002020-10-16T14:48:42.391+01:00PoliticalOD 17: Groundhog Days<p> </p><iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="122" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/4kqmr-ef8670?from=pb6admin&download=1&version=1&auto=0&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Helvetica&skin=4&pfauth=&btn-skin=113" style="border: none;" title="Groundhog Days" width="100%"></iframe>Stormont's maladministration of the Northern Ireland Renewables Obligation, or NIRO, shares many features with the RHI scandal. Intended to encourage green energy production, the scheme created a perverse incentive for companies to game the system, which undermined its original purpose.<div><br /></div><div>There is one key difference, though, which has prevented NIRO from dominating column inches. While officials were mistaken in their belief that London would foot the bill for RHI, and the Northern Ireland budget took the hit, for NIRO, it was electricity customers in Great Britain who picked up most of the cost.</div><div><br /></div><div>The audit office has issued another damning report, but media interest has been low. Partly, this can be explained by coronavirus and Brexit dominating the political agenda. More worryingly, it reflects an attitude that we should view streams of income from the mainland as 'free money.'</div><div><br /></div><div>Then, unionists here wonder why many of our fellow Britons view Northern Ireland's place in the Union with ambivalence.</div><div><br /></div><div>That ambivalence is playing out in the ongoing shambles surrounding an Irish Sea border. While nationalists and the Alliance Party continue to demand that the Northern Ireland protocol is enforced with 'rigour', some of the business groups that favoured special status for this region are starting to face up to the consequences of separating our economy from the rest of the UK.</div><div><br /></div><div>We still frequently hear these campaigners articulating the idea that Theresa May's 'backstop' offered the best of boths worlds, while Johnson's 'frontstop' created the difficulties. This notion completely misunderstands the backstop, which was intended to keep the whole UK aligned with the EU, but included provisions for an even deeper divide, had the government subsequently decided to move away from the customs union and single market. I wrote in detail about the two deals and their respective merits, <a href="https://www.thearticle.com/remember-brexit" target="_blank">at TheArticle</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>Meanwhile, the executive is attempting to commit economic harakiri by introducing the most stringent anti-Covid regulations on these islands, without a coherent plan for what happens next or a proper interrogation of the figures. Plus ca change?</div><div><br /></div><div>This episode can be downloaded or streamed <a href="https://politicalod.podbean.com/e/breaking-down-1602850253/" target="_blank">at Podbean</a>. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>We're <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/7gibmOb30Xhd20CRRtWvXU" target="_blank">on Spotify</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/politicalod/id1481056929">ITunes.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://tunein.com/podcasts/News--Politics-Podcasts/politicalOD-p1360815/?topicId=158055799" target="_blank">TuneIn radio</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://pca.st/episode/ed514086-f3c7-45b2-a905-785d6f0b5dbf" target="_blank">Pocket Casts.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div> </div>Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-8468334120947393212020-09-22T11:57:00.004+01:002020-09-22T12:17:08.008+01:00PoliticalOD 16: Ambiguously certain is not certain at all<p> </p><iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="122" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/gbktb-eca28e?from=pb6admin&download=1&version=1&auto=0&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Helvetica&skin=11&pfauth=&btn-skin=104" style="border: none;" title="Ambiguously certain is not certainty at all." width="100%"></iframe><div><br /></div><div>On the 16th edition of PoliticalOD, we discuss the Irish American reaction to the Internal Market Bill, and the response of both the government and Northern Ireland's executive to a rise in Covid cases. The common theme is ambiguity.</div><div><br /></div><div>Boris Johnson sold the Withdrawal Agreement, which creates a trade border in the Irish Sea, on the basis that it did no such thing. From its inception, we've been told that no paperwork or tariffs would be necessary, even though those features were explicitly included in the Northern Ireland protocol. There were mechanisms to mitigate the worst aspects of the deal, but they relied upon the EU acting constructively and reasonably in negotiations. It was never clear why we should expect this change of approach from an organisation that has used division in Northern Ireland ruthlessly to attack the UK, throughout the process.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Internal Market Bill is the government's attempt to ensure that the EU does not insist on the most extreme type of border made possible by the protocol. Partly thanks to its bizarre method of presenting the legislation, the government has questions to answer about the legality of its policies. However, the idea that they imperil the Belfast Agreement is based on absurdities and indeed downright lies.</div><div><br /></div><div>Last week, at TheArticle, <a href="https://www.thearticle.com/did-johnson-gamble-on-the-potential-breakup-of-the-uk-for-political-ends" target="_blank">I wrote about some of the misplaced hysteria</a> greeting a bill that is, after all, attempting to lessen potential problems for Northern Ireland businesses. On CapX, <a href="https://capx.co/the-government-should-challenge-irish-americas-lies-about-the-good-friday-agreement/" target="_blank">I addressed specifically the outrageous reaction</a> from the type of Irish American politicians who once backed the IRA.</div><div><br /></div><div>David and I talked on Friday, and Covid restrictions have since got worse. One absurdity - that the pubs are opening up just as private gatherings are banned - we can attribute directly to Sinn Fein's insistence on an 'all-Ireland strategy.' Drink only pubs should, in fact, have been opened up months ago.</div><div><br /></div><div>As per usual, you can stream or download at the links below.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://politicalod.podbean.com/e/ambiguously-certain-is-not-certainty-at-all/">Podbean.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/2NpTRsbGxlPLf8gbTel4eI?si=g3qb1VqGTRK_4QiUh4qYoA">Spotify.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/politicalod/id1481056929" target="_blank">ITunes</a> </div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://pca.st/episode/f08daf73-70ec-4bad-8a9b-815b8be430a8" target="_blank">Pocket Casts.</a></div><div><br /></div><div>And we're now up and running on <a href="http://tun.in/pj06H" target="_blank">TuneIn,</a> which means you can listen on your Alexa or Google smark speaker. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-15843609732302574172020-08-25T12:00:00.004+01:002020-08-25T12:00:59.847+01:00Political OD15: All about the message; future, present and past.<iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="122" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/ijzg7-e88414?from=pb6admin&download=1&version=1&auto=0&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Helvetica&skin=10&pfauth=&btn-skin=104" style="border: none;" title="All about the message; future, present, past." width="100%"></iframe><p>At PoliticalOD, we've largely avoided discussing the virus, but this episode coincides with some confused messages coming from the executive. </p><p>We're hoping to get the economy restarted and schools are back this week, but there's a risk that efforts to restore a form of normality will be undermined by the rather more panicked tone of the health minister. At the same time, the education minister was forced to perform a u-turn after the announcement of exam results became a fiasco right across the UK. </p><p>With mixed messages in mind, we look ahead to Northern Ireland's centenary, which is upcoming in 2021. As unionists look to use the celebrations to bolster the Union, in the News Letter <a href="https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/owen-polley-unionism-needs-core-set-guiding-principles-tell-positive-story-what-we-want-not-just-what-we-are-against-2938414" target="_blank">I asked how unionism should define its core set of guiding principles</a>. We should also be using the national dimension of this occasion to '<a href="https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/be-loud-proud-unabashed-about-100-years-union-despite-boris-betrayal-2946419" target="_blank">win friends and influence people.</a>'</p><p>Speaking of winning hearts and minds, we look at a new 'publishing platform' called <a href="https://dissentingvoices.uk/" target="_blank">Dissenting Voices</a>. The first paper looks at legacy, and it was curated by Arthur Aughey and David Hoey. It's a substantial critique of the way that history has been distorted (not rewritten).</p><p>It should be read as widely as possible. </p><p><br /></p><p>You can download the podcast or stream at:</p><p><a href="https://politicalod.podbean.com/e/all-about-the-message/">Podbean.</a></p><p><a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/1j4xieFDUPJXeKqAbJkFyB">Spotify.</a></p><p><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/politicalod/id1481056929.">ITunes.</a></p><p><a href="https://pca.st/dj67bj9v" target="_blank">Pocket Casts.</a></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-63312341826549205742020-07-24T11:28:00.001+01:002020-07-24T11:29:10.822+01:00PoliticalOD 14: Yes to infrastructure, but foundations first not grand schemes<iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="122" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/cah9v-e42120?from=pb6admin&download=1&version=1&auto=0&share=1&download=1&rtl=0&fonts=Helvetica&skin=9&pfauth=&btn-skin=104" style="border: none;" title="Yes to infrastructure, but foundations first before grand schemes..." width="100%"></iframe><span style="font-family: inherit;">In the 14th episode of PoliticalOD, we discuss a bill being fasttracked through Stormont that could give ministers sweeping new powers at the expense of collective responsibility. Why has the Executive (Committee) Functions Bill received so little scrutiny and why is Arlene Foster keen to wave it through?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The former DUP Spad, Richard Bullick, who was one of the party's most influential strategists, has raised worrying suggestions that his former employers don't understand the potential consequences of this legislation, in this morning's News Letter. He urges MLAs to support amendments, tabled by the UUP's Doug Beattie, that 'remove the dangerous aspects of this bill.'</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The Dissenter raises an important point about infrastructure that he's encountered, almost be accident, as part of his day job. Some of the more ambitious plans to create growth in Northern Ireland could be compromised by the executive's failure to deliver reforms to fundamental services and infrastructure. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">He's written a detailed blog post explaining the issues, <a href="https://www.thedissenter.co.uk/930/talk-of-economic-transformation-impossible-without-dealing-with-the-fundamentals/" target="_blank">here</a>.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Looking at national politics, we examine the significance of the ISC's Russia report (or lack of). This document <span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">was so heavily trailed, and speculation about its contents so politicised, that publication was never likely to live up to anticipation. Despite some game attempts to hype its importance, there were few new revelations, and it failed to provide a convincing account of what the ‘threat’ from the Kremlin actually entails.</span></span><br />
<span id="docs-internal-guid-0e108c05-7fff-9aa6-3202-9d89e5c28871"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span id="docs-internal-guid-0e108c05-7fff-9aa6-3202-9d89e5c28871"><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">These deficiencies, the report’s authors blamed on the security services, which it alleges did not look for evidence of Russian interference in British democracy. But there were plenty of problems with the document itself, which relied on supposition and innuendo, without providing a convincing explanation of what Russia’s aims were or whether it was successful in achieving them, as it allegedly sought influence in UK politics.</span></span></span></div>
<span id="docs-internal-guid-0e108c05-7fff-9aa6-3202-9d89e5c28871">
</span>
<div>
<span id="docs-internal-guid-0e108c05-7fff-9aa6-3202-9d89e5c28871"><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<span id="docs-internal-guid-0e108c05-7fff-9aa6-3202-9d89e5c28871">
<div>
<span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">If the Kremlin is investing in influencing the UK, why is its reputation here so damaged and why do politicians treat it as an pariah? It's almost as if any operation isn't working. </span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">As ever, you can download the podcast <a href="https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/va9f6x/e14_political_od.mp3" target="_blank">from Podbean</a>. It's also available to stream or download on <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/6OmDhkQhSAOLkUSrG0lqrz" target="_blank">Spotify</a>, <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/yes-to-infrastructure-but-foundations-first-before/id1481056929?i=1000485889333" target="_blank">iTunes</a> and <a href="https://pca.st/dj67bj9v" target="_blank">Pocket Casts.</a></span></span></div>
</span>Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-26797316680462967272020-07-03T12:58:00.000+01:002020-07-03T12:58:11.077+01:00PoliticalOD 13: New government, same old problems<iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="122" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/um7qm-e1e37e?from=yiiadmin&download=1&version=1&skin=3&btn-skin=108&auto=0&share=1&fonts=Helvetica&download=1&rtl=0&pbad=1" style="border: none;" title="New Government, same old problems" width="100%"></iframe>If it weren't clearly obvious before, the Bobby Storey funeral scandal shows exactly why parties in southern Ireland were wary of forming a coalition government with Sinn Fein. "Sinn Fein is different to other parties and not in a good way," the Republic's new deputy prime minister, Leo Varadkar, remaked when he was asked for his recation to republicans' flagrant flouting of social-distancing regulations.<br />
<br />
At TheArticle, <a href="https://www.thearticle.com/sinn-fein-breaks-the-lockdown-rules" target="_blank">I argue</a> that the members of this movement, which murdered thousands, think they can do what they like. And, the way that the 'peace process' is structured, they're probably right. Daily, we discover new instances of poor governance in Northern Ireland. The chances of being able to do something about that are minimal, because one party will always stand in the way of reform.<br />
<br />
We also ask whether the new Republic of Ireland government, led by Micheal Martin, will be less confrontational to unionists than its predecessor. I wrote about the same subject earlier this week <a href="https://capx.co/why-irelands-new-pm-could-be-good-news-for-the-union/" target="_blank">on CapX</a>.<br />
<br />
As ever, you can get the <a href="https://politicalod.podbean.com/e/new-government-same-old-problems/" target="_blank">podcast on Podbean</a>.<br />
<br />
We're also on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/politicalod/id1481056929" target="_blank">iTunes</a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/2ym3lNAwtoQt74OITrVADl" target="_blank">Spotify</a> and <a href="https://pca.st/dj67bj9v" target="_blank">Pocketcasts</a>.Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-78195285864594981572020-06-08T11:51:00.001+01:002020-06-08T11:51:16.722+01:00Political OD 12: Approaching approaches<iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="122" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/rrrin-dee390?from=yiiadmin&download=1&version=1&skin=11&btn-skin=113&auto=0&share=1&fonts=Helvetica&download=1&rtl=0&pbad=1" style="border: none;" title="Approaching approaches" width="100%"></iframe><br />
The latest PoliticalOD podcast is a Covid-free zone, as <a href="https://www.thedissenter.co.uk/896/approaching-approaches-approach-with-care/" target="_blank">The Dissenter </a>and I look at the government's approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol. Last month, it published a document setting out its view that the Withdrawal Agreement should entail few barriers to trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.<br />
<br />
I analysed the detail (or lack of it) in a recent <a href="https://capx.co/questions-still-hang-in-the-air-over-the-northern-ireland-protocol/" target="_blank">CapX article</a>. Big questions remain over VAT, food checks, the enforcement of single market regulations and human rights' provisions. There's still a very real threat that consumers will face fewer choices and higher costs, after January 2021.<br />
<br />
The latest row to blow up at Stormont concerns pensions for victims of the Troubles, currently being held up by Sinn Fein, on the basis that some injured terrorists will be prevented from accessing the money. We still don't know how much the scheme is likely to cost, or it's overall impact on other spending here, as the Department of Finance continues to fail to produce a budget.<br />
<br />
Listen above, or download on your favourite podcast service. The <a href="https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-rrrin-dee390" target="_blank">original download is here.</a><br />
<br />
We're also at <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/7f14YtRQipLBWdSlBm1tfY" target="_blank">Spotify</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/politicalod/id1481056929" target="_blank">ITunes.</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://pca.st/dj67bj9v" target="_blank">And Pocket Casts,</a>Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-84313759334165715812020-05-19T16:55:00.001+01:002020-05-20T07:18:16.643+01:00PoliticalOD Podcast 11: Recap on health reform, no budget ... big decisions looming.<iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="122" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/tch68-dcf834?from=yiiadmin&download=1&version=1&skin=5&btn-skin=111&auto=0&share=1&fonts=Helvetica&download=1&rtl=0&pbad=1" style="border: none;" title="Recap on health reform, no budget, big decisions looming" width="100%"></iframe><br />
It's almost two months since our last podcast and the time since then has been dominated by Covid-19.<br />
<br />
At the start of the crisis, Northern Ireland's health service was in an unenviable position. The NHS has performed with distinction nevertheless, coping with the disease and saving lives, but when coronavirus moves into the background, its underlying problems - decades of delayed reforms and mounting waiting lists - will remain.<br />
<br />
We ask how the power-sharing executive is likely to cope with these challenges, in light of some of the dividing lines that have emerged again as we try to restart the economy and move out of lockdown. And we look at its chances of putting together a budget, given the main parties' preference for making crowd-pleasing announcements and funding pet-projects.<br />
<br />
You can download the episode from <a href="https://politicalod.podbean.com/e/recap-on-health-reform-no-budget-big-decisions-looming/" target="_blank">Podbean here</a>.<br />
<br />
We're also available at <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/1vbIh0IfOuC5I53AD3R4Rt" target="_blank">Spotify</a>,<br />
<br />
<a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/recap-on-health-reform-no-budget-big-decisions-looming/id1481056929?i=1000475086825" target="_blank">iTunes</a><br />
<br />
And at <a href="https://pca.st/episode/c451ba7a-8220-498e-9f3f-e0ccfdcf9acc" target="_blank">Pocket Casts</a>.Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-23744590918399042272020-03-24T16:01:00.000+00:002020-03-24T16:05:36.198+00:00Political OD Podcast 10: Making Stormont better<span style="font-family: inherit;"><iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="122" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/isb9f-d6b8de?from=yiiadmin&download=1&version=1&skin=3&btn-skin=113&auto=0&share=1&fonts=Helvetica&download=1&rtl=0&pbad=1" style="border: none;" title="Making Stormont better" width="100%"></iframe><span style="font-family: inherit;">The coronavirus crisis hit Northern Ireland properly just as Sir Patrick Coghlin published his report into the RHI scandal. This was an unfortunate coincidence, at a time when people were looking for the parties at Stormont to work effectively together and set aside their differences for the common good.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">At <i><a href="https://thecritic.co.uk/they-didnt-stop-the-fire/" target="_blank">The Critic</a></i>, I examined the problems exposed in the report in detail. A malfunctioning civil service, a lack of political expertise, but, most pervasively, a cavalier attitude to public money, so long as it was believed to be coming from Westminster.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The Executive has traditionally used devolved government to extract every last penny from the Treasury, then divvy it up, rather than taking on the difficult work of reforming services. As The Dissenter <a href="https://www.thedissenter.co.uk/869/health-warning/" target="_blank">argues on his blog</a>, ministers were busy finding money for their political hobby horses, while much needed ICU units were left unfinished.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The rapid spread of Covid-19 has brought a new-found seriousness to the work of most members of the Executive. They've been following advice closely and projecting a sense of calm, in a rapidly changing situation. In contrast, Sinn Fein and a cohort of hardcore Irish nationalists used the opportunity to inflame the public by undermining the chief medical officer and his counterparts in London. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;">That campaign was the very definition of politicising a deeply emotive public health question. The people who took part promoted the idea that the Northern Ireland executive must accept an ‘all-Ireland strategy’ determined by Dublin and it implied that, if ministers followed advice from their own officials or the British government, then they were being grossly irresponsible.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span id="docs-internal-guid-b58b1593-7fff-7264-a09b-c32f644c4c00"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span>
</span><br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span id="docs-internal-guid-b58b1593-7fff-7264-a09b-c32f644c4c00"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span id="docs-internal-guid-b58b1593-7fff-7264-a09b-c32f644c4c00"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span>
</span><br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span id="docs-internal-guid-b58b1593-7fff-7264-a09b-c32f644c4c00"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/owen-polley-nationalists-political-ends-tried-overturn-measured-advice-schools-coronavirus-2484532" target="_blank">At the <i>News Letter</i>,</a> I wrote an angry critique of this exploitation of the crisis. </span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">I was accused of politicising the issue, as if it was me, rather than Michelle O’Neill, who had accepted the chief medical officer’s advice initially and then attacked it the very next day.</span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span id="docs-internal-guid-b58b1593-7fff-7264-a09b-c32f644c4c00"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span></span><span id="docs-internal-guid-636631f1-7fff-5690-2123-fa68e774908f"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></span><br />
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span id="docs-internal-guid-636631f1-7fff-5690-2123-fa68e774908f"><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I stand by my analysis that Sinn Fein’s tactics were disgusting, but I suppose I contributed to exactly the kind of reaction they were intending to draw from unionists. Perhaps I should have been more careful to distinguish between the nationalist fanatics, like Sinn Fein, who will use every crisis, no matter how grave, to push for Northern Ireland's absorption by the Republic, and the wider nationalist public, who are understandably scared and worried by this virus.</span></span></span></div>
<span id="docs-internal-guid-636631f1-7fff-5690-2123-fa68e774908f"><span style="font-family: inherit;">
</span><div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">David and I discussed these issues at the end of last week. I was on the phone to observe the social distancing requirements. You can give it a listen on the widget above, or at <a href="https://s170.podbean.com/pb/1025971de80a08a5f507b148edef0b00/5e7a254f/data3/fs133/6066051/uploads/E10_Political_OD.mp3?pbss=e3670b5f-9424-5bdd-b807-fd3c8b40d61a" target="_blank">Podbean here</a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/0aYDSxdJIHS89T4CvSr6kV?si=rHfKjgEYQNidnyb0KXZkgA" target="_blank">Spotify</a>, <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/making-stormont-better/id1481056929?i=1000469010790" target="_blank">ITunes</a> - if you're an Apple type or at <a href="https://pca.st/episode/1aafbeb8-5843-4417-a675-ab7f3cc109fc" target="_blank">Pocket Casts</a>. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Do please like or subscribe, if you enjoy our chat.</span></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: 11pt; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
</span> Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-2548980058557568532020-02-20T12:21:00.000+00:002020-02-20T12:34:22.356+00:00Political OD Podcast 9: An uncertain legacy<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="Stormont - Belfast - Northern Ireland" height="296" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/17/Stormont_-_Belfast_-_Northern_Ireland.jpg/512px-Stormont_-_Belfast_-_Northern_Ireland.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="640" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">William Murphy [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
There was an unprecedented reaction when Julian Smith was replaced as Secretary of State for Northern Ireland by Brandon Lewis. On social media in particular, it seemed like the entire province was gnashing its teeth and rending its garments.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But, what did the outgoing minister really achieve? He got the Assembly back up and running, partly because Sinn Fein and the DUP were desperate to avoid an election and partly thanks to some trickery during negotiations. During those talks, he comprehensively trashed the three-stranded approach, that prevents the Republic of Ireland government from interfering in Northern Ireland's affairs.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
There are already signs that the new power-sharing Executive is wobbling. The parties are unhappy with funding, as ever, and there's little reason to believe they're ready to take a fresh, responsible attitude to the public finances. So far, there have been plenty of spending commitments, but few explanations of how these might be paid for or what kind of budget might emerge.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
<div>
Perhaps the most controversial aspect of Smith's deal was his decision to fast-track legacy proposals, at a time when we're still waiting for the publication of thousands of consultation responses. The plans, for which the DUP and Sinn Féin are also responsible, threaten to turn 'dealing with the past' into a witch-hunt directed at former members of the security forces.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
In particular, a non-criminal citation for misconduct is to be introduced for ex-RUC officers, with no right to appeal. The HIU is empowered to establish fact but must disregard context as it launches its investigations, ensuring that a final report by academics is likely to give a skewed and misleading interpretation of the Troubles. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
In the latest PoliticalOD podcast, David from <a href="http://www.thedissenter.co.uk/">The Dissenter</a> and I unpick the issues around budgeting at the Assembly and analyse the clash between the NI legacy proposals and the government's commitment to avoid 'vexatious' prosecutions.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Download or stream the podcast at <a href="https://politicalod.podbean.com/e/an-uncertain-legacy/" target="_blank">Podbean</a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/0aYDSxdJIHS89T4CvSr6kV" target="_blank">Spotify</a>, <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/confidence-in-short-supply/id1481056929?i=1000464137583" target="_blank">iTunes</a> or <a href="https://pca.st/episode/6784b276-4d18-4ff0-ae22-26f53d8c37b8" target="_blank">Pocket Casts</a>.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<iframe allowfullscreen="" height="505" id="multi_iframe" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/multi?playlist=http%3A%2F%2Fplaylist.podbean.com%2F6066051%2Fplaylist_multi.xml&vjs=1&size=315&share=1&fonts=Helvetica&auto=0&download=1&skin=0" style="border: none;" title="politicalOD" width="100%"></iframe>
Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-26939137119577373382020-01-29T16:38:00.000+00:002020-01-29T16:38:48.438+00:00Political OD Podcast 8: Confidence in short supplyNow that Northern Ireland's power-sharing institutions have been back at work for a couple of weeks, David from <a href="http://www.thedissenter.co.uk/" target="_blank">The Dissenter</a> and I met up to discuss how things have been going.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So far, the new Assembly has been dominated by complaints about funding and the debacle over MOT tests, which are currently suspended due to equipment failure in the test centres. At the start of the last decade, we were in the midst of another crisis caused by crumbling water infrastructure.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
In the <a href="https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/opinion/this-stormont-is-even-worse-than-before-thanks-to-no-sdlp-uup-opposition-1-9210010?fbclid=IwAR3bxPpAwSY840c9nnlW7VIAG-5PVkSDreeyKZ2Mp8b9AjbqUBouDX-J5R0" target="_blank"><i>News Letter</i> last week</a>, I pointed out that nothing much had changed in the last ten years. By 2030 will Stormont have addressed the most pressing issues we face today? It's doubtful while the focus is always on attracting more money, rather than spending what we have wisely or effectively.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
There is little emphasis on genuine collaboration or a shared message from the new Executive. Instead, any difficult conversations about policy are immediately shut down. This is given visual expression by parties emerging in gangs at the Great Hall at Stormont, to present their messages to the waiting press.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
And the chances of injecting accountability and fresh blood into the Assembly are damaged by a system of co-option that retards democracy.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #757575; font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">Download or stream the podcast at </span><a href="https://politicalod.podbean.com/mf/play/wtmhkz/E8_Political_OD.mp3" target="_blank">Podbean</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #757575; font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">, </span><a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/1pU87n8sjx5sK6JpFuxwTg" target="_blank">Spotify</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #757575; font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">, </span><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/politicalod/id1481056929" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #2196f3; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">iTunes</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #757575; font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"> or </span><a href="https://pca.st/dj67bj9v" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: #2196f3; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Pocket Casts</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #757575; font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif; font-size: 15px;">. If you prefer, listen below.</span></div>
<iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="315" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/p2frt-d18c17?from=usersite&vjs=1&skin=1&fonts=Helvetica&auto=0&download=1" style="border: none;" title="Confidence in short supply" width="100%"></iframe>
Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-58950482791920069982020-01-16T09:44:00.000+00:002020-01-16T09:44:37.764+00:00Political OD Podcast 7: Promises, Promises<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Stormont_-_Belfast_-_Northern_Ireland.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="William Murphy [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]"><img alt="Stormont - Belfast - Northern Ireland" height="296" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/17/Stormont_-_Belfast_-_Northern_Ireland.jpg/512px-Stormont_-_Belfast_-_Northern_Ireland.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 12.8px;">William Murphy [CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)]</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
In the latest PoliticalOD podcast, we ask whether the <i>New Decade, New Approach</i> document really promises a new dawn at Stormont. A wave of optimism accompanied the deal - anything to get the institutions back together - but already, as <a href="https://capx.co/power-sharing-is-restored-but-the-mood-in-stormont-has-soured-already/">I pointed out at CapX</a>, the atmosphere is beginning to sour. An unseemly wrangle over money has broken out, as the parties struggle to explain how they'll pay for a wishlist of new commitments.<br />
<br />
As ever, their answer is that the Treasury should stump up the cash, but there is an atmosphere of wariness in London about funding Northern Ireland even more lavishly, thanks to the RHI inquiry's revelations.<br />
<br />
David and I examine more of the agreement's pitfalls. It was published in a way that flouted Strand 1 of the Belfast Agreement, it leaves key issues cloaked in ambiguity and it fails to address the structural frailties that cause Stormont to crash repeatedly. I wrote about some of the same themes in a <a href="https://reaction.life/stormont-breakthrough-might-reboot-power-sharing-but-it-wont-solve-northern-irelands-long-term-problems/">Reaction analysis piece</a>, just after the deal was published.<br />
<br />
Download or stream the podcast at <a href="https://www.podbean.com/ew/pb-a4j3v-cfb23a" target="_blank">Podbean</a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/79n4I9441ThHVdfiM31lec" target="_blank">Spotify</a>, <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/promises-promises/id1481056929?i=1000462689818" target="_blank">iTunes</a> or <a href="https://pca.st/dj67bj9v" target="_blank">Pocket Casts</a>. If you prefer, listen below.<br />
<iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="315" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/a4j3v-cfb23a-pb?from=share&skin=1&share=1&fonts=Helvetica&download=1&version=1&vjs=1&skin=1" style="border: none;" title="Promises, promises. " width="100%"></iframe>Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-12284481061071930782019-12-18T14:34:00.003+00:002019-12-18T14:34:40.038+00:00PoliticalOD Podcast 6: Health status, Executive stasis and Boris's strategic manoeuvres on Brexit <iframe allowfullscreen="" height="505" id="multi_iframe" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/multi?playlist=http%3A%2F%2Fplaylist.podbean.com%2F6066051%2Fplaylist_multi.xml&vjs=1&size=315&share=1&fonts=Helvetica&auto=0&download=1&skin=0" style="border: none;" title="politicalOD" width="100%"></iframe>The Dissenter and I discuss the origins of the health crisis, a prospective Stormont deal that will solve very little and the strategic challenges that face Boris on Brexit.<br />
<br />
You can listen <a href="https://politicalod.podbean.com/e/health-status-executive-stasis-and-boriss-strategic-manoeuvres-on-brexit/">at Podbean.</a><br />
<br />
Or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/12rHe1Jethh3GBtuC6UujZ?si=OQnD8i67TeW239DAzu7FHw">at Spotify.</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/politicalod/id1481056929">ITunes.</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://pocketcasts./">Pocketcasts.</a><br />
<br />
It would be very encouraging if you could rate and / or subscribe at your chosen service.<br />
<a href="https://pca.st/dj67bj9v"><br /></a>
<br />Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-37631391301878936602019-11-29T15:02:00.003+00:002019-11-29T15:02:25.568+00:00PoliticalOD Podcast 5: Media, asking questions and the election calm before....<iframe allowfullscreen="" height="505" id="multi_iframe" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/multi?playlist=http%3A%2F%2Fplaylist.podbean.com%2F6066051%2Fplaylist_multi.xml&vjs=1&size=315&share=1&fonts=Helvetica&auto=0&download=1&skin=0" style="border: none;" title="politicalOD" width="100%"></iframe><br />
<br />
The Dissenter and I get together to discuss media coverage of Sinn Féin, the tendency to throw about pejoratives rather than deal with issues and the comparatively quiet election week.<br />
<br />
Find it <a href="https://politicalod.podbean.com/e/media-asking-questions-and-the-election-calm-before/" target="_blank">at Podbean</a>.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://spotify./">Spotify.</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/politicalod/id1481056929">iTunes.</a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://pca.st/dj67bj9v">Pockcasts.</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/2stvYoAPNex7MOGyp2PY9E" target="_blank"><br /></a>
<br />Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-39029857747199849722019-11-07T09:14:00.002+00:002019-11-07T09:14:21.506+00:00PoliticalOD podcast Episode 4: Party manoeuvres, fighting the last election who who knows what will happen<iframe allowfullscreen="" height="505" id="multi_iframe" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/multi?playlist=http%3A%2F%2Fplaylist.podbean.com%2F6066051%2Fplaylist_multi.xml&vjs=1&size=315&share=1&fonts=Helvetica&auto=0&download=1&skin=0" style="border: none;" title="politicalOD" width="100%"></iframe><br />
<br />
In the latest PoliticalOD podcast, The Dissenter and I discuss the election and how the contest will pan out in Northern Ireland. The various anti-DUP pacts and the MPs standing down. Nationally, we ask whether we'll have a Tory government that rushes through the Withdrawal Agreement or a Labour administration that means more delay.<br />
<br />
Listen above, or:<br />
<br />
Download <a href="https://politicalod.podbean.com/e/party-manoeuvres-fighting-the-last-election-and-who-knows-what-will-happen-over-coming-weeks/" target="_blank">at Podbean</a>.<br />
<br />
Listen <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/19ZB9RRCu7pdufFsAerHpq" target="_blank">on Spotify</a>.<br />
<br />
Find us <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/politicalod/id1481056929" target="_blank">on iTunes</a>.<br />
<br />
Find us <a href="https://pca.st/dj67bj9v" target="_blank">on Pocketcasts.</a><br />
<br />
<br />Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-23878656655150523992019-10-17T15:38:00.000+01:002019-10-17T15:38:49.092+01:00Political OD podcast episode 3: <iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="315" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/qyccz-c3a907?from=usersite&vjs=1&skin=1&fonts=Helvetica&auto=0&download=1" style="border-style: none; border-width: initial;" title="Episode 3" width="100%"></iframe> <br />
In the latest Political OD podcast (recorded 16/10/2019), David and I discuss the De Souza campaign's attack on British citizenship in Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic's Father Ted economic model, which involves international companies' money resting in Dublin's account.<br />
<br />
For more on the issues covered, read The Dissenter's piece on the <a href="http://www.thedissenter.co.uk/803/phantom-menace/" target="_blank">Phantom Menace of the parasitic Irish economy</a>. And here's my article covering <a href="https://www.thearticle.com/is-the-prime-minister-about-to-accept-another-spurious-misreading-of-the-good-friday-agreement/" target="_blank">the De Souza case</a>.<br />
<br />
Listen above, or:<br />
<br />
Download <a href="https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-qyccz-c3a907" target="_blank">at Podbean.</a><br />
<br />
Listen <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/4QaZNOjoxQEoyYTkjBhGmD?si=JBHPE2egSrafOeCaW--k3A" target="_blank">on Spotify.</a><br />
<br />
Find us <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/politicalod/id1481056929" target="_blank">on iTunes.</a><br />
<br />
Find us <a href="https://pca.st/dj67bj9v" target="_blank">on Pocketcasts.</a><br />
<br />
If you enjoy our chat, don't forget to subscribe wherever you choose to listen.<br />
<br />
<br />Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-68956238542163003462019-10-01T11:02:00.003+01:002019-10-01T11:02:42.536+01:00PoliticalOD Podcast episode 2: Swanning on. The Rabble Alliance. The big issue bubbling. <a href="http://www.thedissenter.co.uk/" target="_blank">The Dissenter</a> and I discuss Robin Swann's decision to quit as UUP leader, chaos in parliament and the Conservative Party conference.<br />
<br />
<iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="122" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/cgjag-c19912?from=usersite&skin=1&share=1&fonts=Helvetica&auto=0&download=1&version=1" style="border: none;" title="Swanning on. Rabble Alliance. The big issue bubbling. " width="100%"></iframe><br />
<br />
Download <a href="https://www.podbean.com/eu/pb-cgjag-c19912" target="_blank">at Podbean.</a><br />
<br />
Listen <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/5t2M2jkpL8fYT3bDdtQr2J?si=LIxoPsipRDigISyPWyRf2w" target="_blank">on Spotify</a>.<br />
<br />
Find us <a href="https://t.co/R55C8E7MQK" target="_blank">on iTunes.</a><br />
<br />
Find us on <a href="https://pca.st/dj67bj9v" target="_blank">Pocket Casts</a>.<br />
<br />
We're on Podcast Addict and a few others too. Bear with us if the new episode doesn't show up immediately in your favourite service. Sometimes it takes a little while for it to pick up the RSS feed.Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-58383855744740975462019-09-20T08:38:00.000+01:002019-09-20T09:07:17.314+01:00Political OD podcastThis is something of an experiment. David, from <a href="http://www.thedissenter.co.uk/" target="_blank">The Dissenter</a>, and I have recorded a short podcast, Political OD.<br />
<br />
We hope that fairly regularly we'll have a look at political developments in Northern Ireland and beyond, to try to make sense of what's going on. Inevitably, the first episode asks; Backstop or go? And we discuss whether David Cameron is a hero or a villain.<br />
<br />
The perspective is unionist, but we'll try and take a broader view, touching on international politics.<br />
<br />
The first episode is a trial and it was recorded without any fancy equipment. Still, the quality if perfectly ok to hear what we're saying. Do have a listen and let us know what you think. <a href="https://twitter.com/3000versts" target="_blank">@3000Versts</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/thedissenter" target="_blank">@thedissenter</a><br />
<br />
<iframe data-name="pb-iframe-player" height="122" scrolling="no" src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/ssi5k-c028f3?from=yiiadmin&download=1&version=1&skin=4&btn-skin=113&auto=0&download=1&pbad=1" style="border: none;" title="Backstop or go. David Cameron, hero or villain? " width="100%"></iframe>
<br />
Download the podcast <a href="https://politicalod.podbean.com/mf/play/c5c4f9/OD_episode_1.mp3">here.</a><br />
<br />
And <a href="https://politicalod.podbean.com/">follow</a> for subsequent episodes.<br />
<br />
Find us on Pocket Casts <a href="https://pca.st/dj67bj9v" target="_blank">here</a>.Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-91539402879021677232018-09-18T11:45:00.000+01:002018-09-18T11:48:20.712+01:00Ditch the dogma - do the deal<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<div class="graf graf--p" name="06a9">
In the imagination of remainers, the Tory European Research Group is a cadre of irreconcilable Brexit ultras, determined to wrench the UK from the EU in chaotic fashion. It’s ironic then, that the ERG’s latest paper is one of the calmest contributions to the Irish border debate, delivering low-key, rather technical solutions to practical problems raised by the frontier, rather than overheated rhetoric.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="06a9">
<br /></div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="460f">
The document draws heavily on the work of Dr Graham Gudgin, the Cambridge University academic who has examined forensically Brexit’s potential impact in Ireland at the think-tank, Policy Exchange. The audience at its publication included two former secretaries of state for Northern Ireland, Owen Paterson and Theresa Villiers, as well as Lord Trimble, unionist architect of the Belfast Agreement.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="35b4">
<br /></div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="35b4">
The ERG’s aim in writing this paper was fairly straight-forward. Come up with a set of arrangements that will avoid the need for new physical checks and infrastructure at the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, without compromising the integrity of the customs union or the single market and without requiring the UK or parts of the UK to remain under the auspices of Brussels.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="b750">
<br /></div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="b750">
The broader purpose is to allow the two sides in the Brexit negotiations to get round the Irish road-block and start putting together a wide-ranging free trade agreement between the UK and the EU.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="5ef6">
<br /></div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="5ef6">
Unfortunately, the document was always likely to get a hostile reception, because the border question is no longer really about solving practical problems. Northern Ireland and its peace process are being exploited shamelessly to promote competing visions of Brexit.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="560c">
<br /></div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="560c">
The European Commission’s negotiating strategy is founded on portraying Britain’s departure from the EU as a binary choice between leaving the single market and the customs union or maintaining a soft border. Theresa May assisted Brussels by offering an unilateral commitment before talks began that there would be no additional checks or technology on the Irish frontier, under any circumstances. </div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="560c">
That has allowed Michel Barnier to maintain that, if her government insists on a meaningful Brexit, then it must agree to an internal UK border in the Irish Sea, while Northern Ireland must remain subject to the EU’s rules and customs regime.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="9fc2">
<br /></div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="9fc2">
For her part, the prime minister has used Brussels’ uncompromising stance to promote her Chequers’ plan for a diluted form of Brexit. Theresa May claims that the UK must accept a ‘common rulebook’ with the EU on goods and agriculture, in order to avoid an internal frontier. She even went so far as to say that anything that undermines a ‘seamless border’ on the island of Ireland is a “breach of the spirit of the Belfast Agreement.”</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="cb83">
<br /></div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="cb83">
It was particularly disappointing to hear the prime minister join the growing number of culprits who have made erroneous claims about the Good Friday deal, since the EU referendum result. The deranged peer, Lord Adonis, claimed this week that certain types of Brexit would be “illegal” under the accord. None of these people can ever cite the text to support their arguments, whereas Lord Trimble, who knows the Belfast Agreement back to front, points out that the main threat to its central ‘principle of consent’ is an Irish Sea border.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="14c6">
<br /></div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="14c6">
If the ERG’s document has a flaw, it’s that it takes the various arguments about Ireland at face value. It attempts to address Mr Barnier’s claims that the single market cannot be protected, unless Northern Ireland remains under its tutelage. It shows Theresa May that Chequers is not the only way to keep trade flowing freely, both north to south and east to west.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="ed67">
<br /></div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="ed67">
In truth, neither the Irish border nor the Belfast Agreement form an impediment to any form of Brexit. The Chequers’ proposals must stand on their own merit and be weighed against the ERG’s ideas for a looser arrangement, based on a free trade agreement. It’s time for all sides to ditch the dogma around Ireland and get on with brokering a deal.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p graf--empty" name="d379">
<br /></div>
<div class="graf graf--p graf--empty" name="d379">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div class="graf graf--p graf--empty" name="d379">
<i>First published at <a href="http://thisunion.co.uk/" target="_blank">This Union</a> and <a href="http://www.thinkscotland.org/" target="_blank">Think Scotland</a>.</i></div>
</div>
Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com107tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2623721153002721356.post-79428170758384508362018-08-17T13:11:00.000+01:002018-08-17T13:13:37.507+01:00Russia staged the best World Cup of modern times<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
The bitterness when Russia pipped England in the race to stage the World Cup was palpable.<br />
<br /></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<div class="graf graf--p" name="bc90">
Very soon, there were incessant implications that the tournament would be a disaster and countless attempts to organise a boycott on flimsy pretexts. Nick Clegg was one of the quickest out of the blocks, demanding British teams refuse to participate in protest at the Kremlin’s insistence on confronting Jihadist maniacs in Syria.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="7861">
<br />
Russia’s stubbornly independent foreign policy and resistance to western groupthink has resulted in it being treated as a pariah. Yet it confounded its critics by staging the most entertaining World Cup in living memory and proved itself an exceptional host. From the opening ceremony to the trophy presentation, which took place in a near biblical rainstorm, Russia 2018 was an unqualified triumph.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="208c">
<br />
The conspiracy theorists will allege that Vladimir Putin stage-managed the event carefully in order to cultivate a positive image of his country (as if micromanaging the experiences of hundreds of thousands of football supporters and thousands of journalists were a simple thing or even remotely possible). In reality, Russia embraced the carnival of football and showed itself to be far from the forbidding place portrayed by Russophobic cliche.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="edac">
<br />
The country is routinely demonised on a range of topics and the thread that links them is a refusal to try to understand the Russian point of view or accept any complication or nuance. Most blatantly, the war with Georgia is depicted as a result of aggression by Moscow, even though the EU’s fact-finding report conceded that it was started by former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili’s decision to shell and then invade South Ossetia.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="bef4">
<br />
After such a flagrant misrepresentation, is it surprising that Russia often treats western governments with hostility and mistrust?</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="3b86">
<br />
Its attitude was vindicated some years later, when US and EU meddling in Ukraine helped provoke a populist uprising that unseated a democratically elected president. The civil war that ensued was again portrayed in the west as simply an outcome of Russian aggression, without any examination of the views of Russian speakers and Russian citizens in eastern and southern Ukraine.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="2f17">
<br />
Many western commentators, who are accustomed only to looking for signs of ‘progress’ toward liberal democracy and freer markets or backsliding away from that ideal, have profound difficulty understanding Vladimir Putin’s uniquely Russian conservatism. In particular, they find it impossible to accept the Kremlin’s position on homosexuality, which is not tolerant, but reflects the influence of the Orthodox Church and the mood of the country’s people.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="51d9">
<br />
Attitudes to sexuality have changed at dizzying pace over a short period of time. We forgot, almost instantly, how fiercely these matters were contested and the controversy they created in the UK, the US and Europe.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="a42a">
<br />
Putin pacified the strife-torn, bandit-ridden province of Chechnya, by contracting a messy deal with the thuggish warlord Ramzan Kadyrov, but because Kadyrov adheres to the unpleasant interpretation of Islam that has seen gay people mistreated across the Muslim world, we’re asked to believe that it is a result of Putin’s homophobic policies.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="4996">
<br />
Throughout his tenure, the president and former prime minister has prioritised economic and political stability rather than ideology. His state-building schemes may seem undemocratic, but they have created a stronger, steadier, more affluent country. He centralised power, where previously it had been dispersed unevenly across a baffling array of republics and regions, rendering Russia practically ungovernable.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="5ee1">
<br />
Putin took over a state without an agreed flag, without words to its national anthem and struggling to establish a sense of shared purpose among its people. He will leave to his successor a powerful, diverse nation, spanning practically endless ethnicities and cultures, bound together by a strong sense of common citizenship.</div>
<div class="graf graf--p" name="2bad">
<br />
This was the Russia that was equipped to hold the best World Cup of modern times.</div>
</div>
Owen Polleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00567787385096905811noreply@blogger.com6